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The Impact of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia

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  • Christopher White
  • Trevor Tanton
  • David Rycroft

Abstract

Central Asia is facing an unprecedented juxtaposition of regional climate- and water-related issues, emphasised by a changing climate. We investigate the potential impact of long-term climate change on the availability of water resources in the Amu Darya River, one of the two major rivers that feed the Aral Sea, and its effect on irrigation in the region. Using a water balance accounting model developed for the Amu Darya basin, we find that projected increases in summer temperatures of up to 5 °C by 2070–2099 under a high-emission scenario, combined with likely shifts in the seasonality of precipitation, would lead to an increase in crop water consumptive demand of between 10.6 and 16 % (or between 3.7 and 5.5 km 3 y −1 ) relative to 1961–1990. By the end of the century, 34 to 49 % of the basin’s existing 3.4 million ha of irrigated land would go unirrigated in a 1:20 year drought. Runoff is also expected to decline by between 10 and 20 % on current levels, however contributions to river flows from unsustainable glacial retreat and snow-melt are likely to remain small. While the uncertainty surrounding the precipitation projections is high, the effect of increased temperatures on irrigation practices in the basin is more robust in the long-term. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

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  • Christopher White & Trevor Tanton & David Rycroft, 2014. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5267-5281, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:15:p:5267-5281
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0716-x
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    4. Liu, Minghuan & Jiang, Yao & Xu, Xu & Huang, Quanzhong & Huo, Zailin & Huang, Guanhua, 2018. "Long-term groundwater dynamics affected by intense agricultural activities in oasis areas of arid inland river basins, Northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 37-52.
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    7. Haoyu Jin & Qin Ju & Zhongbo Yu & Jie Hao & Huanghe Gu & Henan Gu & Wei Li, 2019. "Simulation of snowmelt runoff and sensitivity analysis in the Nyang River Basin, southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(2), pages 931-950, November.
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    10. Xu, Xu & Jiang, Yao & Liu, Minghuan & Huang, Quanzhong & Huang, Guanhua, 2019. "Modeling and assessing agro-hydrological processes and irrigation water saving in the middle Heihe River basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 152-164.
    11. Haochen Yu & Zhengfu Bian & Shouguo Mu & Junfang Yuan & Fu Chen, 2020. "Effects of Climate Change on Land Cover Change and Vegetation Dynamics in Xinjiang, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-25, July.
    12. Lixian Wang & Xi Chen & Anming Bao & Xiaoyun Zhang & Miao Wu & Yun Hao & Jingjing He, 2015. "A bibliometric analysis of research on Central Asia during 1990–2014," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 105(2), pages 1223-1237, November.

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