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The summer cooling effect under the projected restoration of Aral Sea in Central Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Huili He

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Atmospheric Science and Remote Sensing College, Wuxi University
    Ghent University
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Rafiq Hamdi

    (Royal Meteorological Institute
    Ghent University)

  • Geping Luo

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    CAS Research Centre for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia)

  • Peng Cai

    (Atmospheric Science and Remote Sensing College, Wuxi University)

  • Xiuliang Yuan

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Miao Zhang

    (Shanxi Normal University)

  • Piet Termonia

    (Royal Meteorological Institute
    Ghent University)

  • Philippe Maeyer

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Ghent University
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-Information)

  • Alishir Kurban

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    CAS Research Centre for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia)

Abstract

The Aral Sea once covered 68 × 103 km2, but lost 90% of its area during the last decades due to unreasonable water resources utilization. Fortunately, some measures to save the Aral Sea have been proposed. Regional climate model ALARO-SURFEX was applied in dynamic downscaling simulations to quantify the climatic effects generated by increasing greenhousegas (GHG) emissions and the Aral Sea restoration. The results show that performance of CNRM-CM5 dynamically downscaled by ALARO-SURFEX in reproducing 2-m temperature is reliable and better than outputs of 17 global climate models. If the Aral Sea kept the almost dry-up state (8.6 × 103 km2) in the future (2021–2050), the Aral Sea region will suffer a warmer summer than in historical period. Daily maximum (T2max), mean (T2avg), and minimum (T2min) temperature will rise by 0.91 °C, 1.06 °C, and 1.22 °C, respectively, and reduce diurnal temperature range (DTR) by 0.31 °C. If the Aral Sea could recover to twice its current area (17.2 × 103 km2), the T2max and T2avg (T2min) over the ambient region of Aral Sea (350 km) will reduce (increase) by 1.54 and 1.10 °C (1.16 °C), respectively, which can dampen the DTR by 2.4 °C. The cooling effect induced by the projected Aral Sea restoration is mainly contributed by enhanced latent heat. While the warming effect caused by GHG emissions increase is primarily attributed to increased incoming longwave radiation. This study quantified the summer cooling effect under the projected restoration of Aral Sea, which could provide scientific reference in working out the sustainable development strategies under the warming threat in Central Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Huili He & Rafiq Hamdi & Geping Luo & Peng Cai & Xiuliang Yuan & Miao Zhang & Piet Termonia & Philippe Maeyer & Alishir Kurban, 2022. "The summer cooling effect under the projected restoration of Aral Sea in Central Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 1-21, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:174:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03434-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03434-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tobias Siegfried & Thomas Bernauer & Renaud Guiennet & Scott Sellars & Andrew Robertson & Justin Mankin & Peter Bauer-Gottwein & Andrey Yakovlev, 2012. "Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 881-899, June.
    2. Annina Sorg & Tobias Bolch & Markus Stoffel & Olga Solomina & Martin Beniston, 2012. "Climate change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan (Central Asia)," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(10), pages 725-731, October.
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    4. Peng Cai & Chaofan Li & Geping Luo & Chi Zhang & Friday Uchenna Ochege & Steven Caluwaerts & Lesley De Cruz & Rozemien De Troch & Sara Top & Piet Termonia & Philippe De Maeyer, 2020. "The Responses of the Ecosystems in the Tianshan North Slope under Multiple Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios in the Middle of the 21st Century," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, January.
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