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Water, Food, and Energy Security: An Elusive Search for Balance in Central Asia

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  • Shokhrukh-Mirzo Jalilov
  • Saud Amer
  • Frank Ward

Abstract

The development and use of water resources in the Amu Darya Basin remain under debate in the face of increasing population and associated scarcities in water, food, and energy. The upstream riparian, the mountain nation of Tajikistan, wishes to develop its hydropower potential. Three downstream states wish to sustain or increase their economic benefits from water used for irrigation. Growing tensions among the riparian countries on the Vakhsh River, a tributary of Amu Darya, have halted development of Tajikistan’s proposed Rogun Dam. This paper examines the potential for mutually beneficial water development and allocation of water resources to sustain demands for water, food, and energy. Using long-term data on the Basin’s energy potential, water supplies, irrigated land, and crop water demands, this paper analyzes total economic welfare for a future 20-year time horizon. Two water supply scenarios for each of two policy choices are examined. Results show that a constrained economic optimization operation of the Dam has the potential to increase farm income for each riparian country, while producing considerable benefits in hydropower for Tajikistan. Political negotiation among the riparian states and much better data will be needed to discover and implement potential gains indicated by this study. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Shokhrukh-Mirzo Jalilov & Saud Amer & Frank Ward, 2013. "Water, Food, and Energy Security: An Elusive Search for Balance in Central Asia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(11), pages 3959-3979, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:11:p:3959-3979
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-013-0390-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cai, Ximing & McKinney, Daene C. & Rosegrant, Mark W., 2003. "Sustainability analysis for irrigation water management in the Aral Sea region," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 1043-1066, June.
    2. Michael Glantz, 2005. "Water, Climate, and Development Issues in the Amu Darya Basin," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 23-50, January.
    3. Stephen Tokarick, 2005. "Who Bears the Cost of Agricultural Support in OECD Countries?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 573-593, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher White & Trevor Tanton & David Rycroft, 2014. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5267-5281, December.
    2. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Araral, Eduardo & Seetharam, K. E. (ed.), 2019. "Water Insecurity and Sanitation in Asia," ADBI Books, Asian Development Bank Institute, number 10, Décembre.
    3. Ward, Frank A., 2023. "Innovations for the Water Resource Economics Curriculum: Training the Next Generation," Applied Economics Teaching Resources (AETR), Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 5(3), September.
    4. Lixian Wang & Xi Chen & Anming Bao & Xiaoyun Zhang & Miao Wu & Yun Hao & Jingjing He, 2015. "A bibliometric analysis of research on Central Asia during 1990–2014," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 105(2), pages 1223-1237, November.
    5. Ward, Frank A., 2023. "Innovations for the Water Resource Economics Curriculum: Training the Next Generation," Applied Economics Teaching Resources (AETR), Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 5(2), April.
    6. Fuyou Tian & Bingfang Wu & Hongwei Zeng & Shukri Ahmed & Nana Yan & Ian White & Miao Zhang & Alfred Stein, 2020. "Identifying the Links Among Poverty, Hydroenergy and Water Use Using Data Mining Methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(5), pages 1725-1741, March.
    7. Yanwen Wang & Song Hong & Yifei Wang & Xi Gong & Chao He & Zhendong Lu & F. Benjamin Zhan, 2019. "What is the difference in global research on Central Asia before and after the collapse of the USSR: a bibliometric analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 119(2), pages 909-930, May.
    8. Aliya Aktymbayeva & Arailym Orazgaliyeva & Aizhan Omarova & Anvar Tulaganov & Aigul Akhmetova & Yuliya Tyurina & Marija Troyanskaya, 2021. "The Central Asian Economies of Water-energy security: The Future Role of Hydro and Fuel-based Systems," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 417-425.
    9. Qin, Jingxiu & Duan, Weili & Chen, Yaning & Dukhovny, Viktor A. & Sorokin, Denis & Li, Yupeng & Wang, Xuanxuan, 2022. "Comprehensive evaluation and sustainable development of water–energy–food–ecology systems in Central Asia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    10. Luisa Liucci & Daniela Valigi & Stefano Casadei, 2014. "A New Application of Flow Duration Curve (FDC) in Designing Run-of-River Power Plants," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(3), pages 881-895, February.
    11. Wang, Xuanxuan & Chen, Yaning & Li, Zhi & Fang, Gonghuan & Wang, Yi, 2020. "Development and utilization of water resources and assessment of water security in Central Asia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    12. Bekchanov, Maksud & Bhaduri, Anik & Ringler, Claudia, 2015. "Potential gains from water rights trading in the Aral Sea Basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 41-56.
    13. Frank A. Ward, 2016. "Policy Nook: “Policy Challenges Facing Agricultural Water Use: An International Look”," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(03), pages 1-14, September.

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