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Rapid assessment of climate risks for irrigated agriculture in two river basins in the Aral Sea Basin

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  • Lobanova, Anastasia
  • Didovets, Iulii
  • Menz, Christoph
  • Umirbekov, Atabek
  • Babagalieva, Zhanna
  • Hattermann, Fred
  • Krysanova, Valentina

Abstract

Understanding of future climate change impacts and successful planning of adaptation measures are of vital importance for Central Asia given the region's economic vulnerability, dependence on scarce water resources, and observed above global average warming rates. This paper analyses how impacts of climate change on the hydrological regimes and temperature patterns could affect the irrigated agricultural production in two case study areas, the Aspara and Isfara river basins. The methodology applied is based on analysis of temperature indicators and current cropping calendars in target locations combined with hydrological simulations by the process-based Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) of the two river basins. The selected climate change projections comprise the moderate and high emissions scenarios - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results reveal that climate change will create unfavourable conditions for irrigated spring crops, due to decrease of discharge during the vegetation period. On the other hand, the projected shift of peak discharge to an earlier date offers benefits for irrigated winter cereals, providing more water for irrigation in spring. Results suggest that, there is an opportunity to adapt the irrigated agricultural production in the selected regions by fitting the cropping calendars to changing vegetation periods and to the timing of peak discharges.

Suggested Citation

  • Lobanova, Anastasia & Didovets, Iulii & Menz, Christoph & Umirbekov, Atabek & Babagalieva, Zhanna & Hattermann, Fred & Krysanova, Valentina, 2021. "Rapid assessment of climate risks for irrigated agriculture in two river basins in the Aral Sea Basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:243:y:2021:i:c:s0378377420306181
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106381
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    1. Christopher White & Trevor Tanton & David Rycroft, 2014. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5267-5281, December.
    2. Shaochun Huang & Valentina Krysanova & Jianqing Zhai & Buda Su, 2015. "Impact of Intensive Irrigation Activities on River Discharge Under Agricultural Scenarios in the Semi-Arid Aksu River Basin, Northwest China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(3), pages 945-959, February.
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    4. Annina Sorg & Tobias Bolch & Markus Stoffel & Olga Solomina & Martin Beniston, 2012. "Climate change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan (Central Asia)," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(10), pages 725-731, October.
    5. Galina, Stulina & Georgy, Solodkiy & Odilbek, Eshtchanov, 2019. "Estimation of Crop Water Requirements in Irrigated Land of the Khorezm Oasis in the Context of Climate Change," Sustainable Agriculture Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(1).
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    1. Bekchanov, Maksud, 2024. "Conveyance efficiency and irrigation water productivity under varying water supply conditions in arid lowlands of Central Asia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
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    3. Tang, Xiaoyu & Huang, Yue & Pan, Xiaohui & Liu, Tie & Ling, Yunan & Peng, Jiabin, 2024. "Managing the water-agriculture-environment-energy nexus: Trade-offs and synergies in an arid area of Northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    4. Ruan, Hongwei & Yu, Jingjie & Wang, Ping & Hao, Lingang & Wang, Zhenlong, 2023. "Relieving water stress by optimizing crop structure is a practicable approach in arid transboundary rivers of Central Asia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    5. Didovets, Iulii & Lobanova, Anastasia & Krysanova, Valentina & Menz, Christoph & Babagalieva, Zhanna & Nurbatsina, Aliya & Gavrilenko, Nadejda & Khamidov, Vohid & Umirbekov, Atabek & Qodirov, Sobir & , 2021. "Central Asian rivers under climate change: Impacts assessment in eight representative catchments," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 34.

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