IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v177y2024i1d10.1007_s10584-023-03673-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Attribution of current trends in streamflow to climate change for 12 Central Asian catchments

Author

Listed:
  • Iulii Didovets

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Climate Resilience)

  • Valentina Krysanova

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Climate Resilience)

  • Aliya Nurbatsina

    (Institute of Geography and Water Security Science, Laboratory of Water Resources)

  • Bijan Fallah

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Climate Resilience)

  • Viktoriya Krylova

    (Kazakh-German University, Center for Natural Resources and Sustainability)

  • Assel Saparova

    (Institute of Geography and Water Security Science, Laboratory of Water Resources)

  • Jafar Niyazov

    (Institute of Water Problems, Hydropower and Ecology, Academy of Sciences, Climatology and Glaciology Lab.)

  • Olga Kalashnikova

    (Central-Asian Institute for Applied Geosciences)

  • Fred Fokko Hattermann

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Climate Resilience)

Abstract

This study investigates the attribution of climate change to trends in river discharge during six decades from 1955 until 2014 in 12 selected river catchments across six Central Asian countries located upstream of the main rivers. For this purpose, the semi-distributed eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) was firstly calibrated and validated for all study catchments. Attributing climate change to streamflow simulation trends was forced by factual (reanalysis) and counterfactual climate data (assuming the absence of anthropogenic influence) proposed in the framework of the ISIMIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) or ESM without anthropogenic forcing that were firstly tested and then compared. The trend analysis was performed for three variables: mean annual discharge and high flow (Q5) and low flow (Q95) indices. The results show that trends in the annual and seasonal discharge could be attributed to climate change for some of the studied catchments. In the three northern catchments (Derkul, Shagan, and Tobol), there are positive trends, and in two catchments (Sarysu and Kafirnigan), there are negative streamflow trends under the factual climate, which could be attributed to climate change. Also, our analysis shows that the average level of discharge in Murghab has increased during the historical study period due to climate change, despite the overall decreasing trend during this period. In addition, the study reveals a clear signal of shifting spring streamflow peaks in all catchments across the study area.

Suggested Citation

  • Iulii Didovets & Valentina Krysanova & Aliya Nurbatsina & Bijan Fallah & Viktoriya Krylova & Assel Saparova & Jafar Niyazov & Olga Kalashnikova & Fred Fokko Hattermann, 2024. "Attribution of current trends in streamflow to climate change for 12 Central Asian catchments," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-20, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:177:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03673-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03673-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-023-03673-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-023-03673-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexander Gelfan & Andrey Kalugin & Inna Krylenko, 2023. "Detection, attribution, and specifying mechanisms of hydrological changes in geographically different river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(9), pages 1-21, September.
    2. Jiabo Yin & Pierre Gentine & Sha Zhou & Sylvia C. Sullivan & Ren Wang & Yao Zhang & Shenglian Guo, 2018. "Large increase in global storm runoff extremes driven by climate and anthropogenic changes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Tobias Siegfried & Thomas Bernauer & Renaud Guiennet & Scott Sellars & Andrew Robertson & Justin Mankin & Peter Bauer-Gottwein & Andrey Yakovlev, 2012. "Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 881-899, June.
    4. Annina Sorg & Tobias Bolch & Markus Stoffel & Olga Solomina & Martin Beniston, 2012. "Climate change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan (Central Asia)," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(10), pages 725-731, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Zhi & Fang, Gonghuan & Chen, Yaning & Duan, Weili & Mukanov, Yerbolat, 2020. "Agricultural water demands in Central Asia under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    2. Huili He & Rafiq Hamdi & Geping Luo & Peng Cai & Xiuliang Yuan & Miao Zhang & Piet Termonia & Philippe Maeyer & Alishir Kurban, 2022. "The summer cooling effect under the projected restoration of Aral Sea in Central Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 1-21, September.
    3. Shan Zou & Abuduwaili Jilili & Weili Duan & Philippe De Maeyer & Tim Van de Voorde, 2019. "Human and Natural Impacts on the Water Resources in the Syr Darya River Basin, Central Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-18, May.
    4. Chaofan Li & Qifei Han & Geping Luo & Chengyi Zhao & Shoubo Li & Yuangang Wang & Dongsheng Yu, 2018. "Effects of Cropland Conversion and Climate Change on Agrosystem Carbon Balance of China’s Dryland: A Typical Watershed Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-16, November.
    5. Christopher White & Trevor Tanton & David Rycroft, 2014. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5267-5281, December.
    6. Wanlu Liu & Lulu Liu & Jiangbo Gao, 2020. "Adapting to climate change: gaps and strategies for Central Asia," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(8), pages 1439-1459, December.
    7. R. Bryson Touchstone & Kathleen Sherman-Morris, 2016. "Vulnerability to prolonged cold: a case study of the Zeravshan Valley of Tajikistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(2), pages 1279-1300, September.
    8. Xiaoyan Wang & Tao Yang & Chong-Yu Xu & Lihua Xiong & Pengfei Shi & Zhenya Li, 2020. "The response of runoff components and glacier mass balance to climate change for a glaciated high-mountainous catchment in the Tianshan Mountains," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1239-1258, November.
    9. Wang, Wendi & Straffelini, Eugenio & Tarolli, Paolo, 2023. "Steep-slope viticulture: The effectiveness of micro-water storage in improving the resilience to weather extremes," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    10. Bhaduri, Anik & Djanibekov, Nodir, 2015. "Adoption of Water-Efficient Technology: Role of Water Price Flexibility, Tenure Uncerntainty and Production Targets in Uzbekistan," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211336, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Aw-Hassan, Aden, 2014. "Impacts of climate change on farm income security in Central Asia: An integrated modeling approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 188, pages 245-255.
    12. Qun Liu & Zhaoping Yang & Cuirong Wang & Fang Han, 2019. "Temporal-Spatial Variations and Influencing Factor of Land Use Change in Xinjiang, Central Asia, from 1995 to 2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-14, January.
    13. Yihao Zhang & Jianzhong Yan & Xian Cheng & Xinjun He, 2021. "Wetland Changes and Their Relation to Climate Change in the Pumqu Basin, Tibetan Plateau," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-24, March.
    14. Weibing Du & Weiqian Ji & Linjuan Xu & Shuangting Wang, 2020. "Deformation Time Series and Driving-Force Analysis of Glaciers in the Eastern Tienshan Mountains Using the SBAS InSAR Method," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-18, April.
    15. Ruan, Hongwei & Yu, Jingjie & Wang, Ping & Hao, Lingang & Wang, Zhenlong, 2023. "Relieving water stress by optimizing crop structure is a practicable approach in arid transboundary rivers of Central Asia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    16. Ahmed Awad & Wan Luo & Nadhir Al-Ansari & Ahmed Elbeltagi & Mustafa El-Rawy & Hesham N. Farres & Mohamed EL-Sayed Gabr, 2021. "Farmers’ Awareness in the Context of Climate Change: An Underutilized Way for Ensuring Sustainable Farmland Adaptation and Surface Water Quality," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-16, October.
    17. Xiaoyun Sun & Guotao Zhang & Jiao Wang & Chaoyue Li & Shengnan Wu & Yao Li, 2022. "Spatiotemporal variation of flash floods in the Hengduan Mountains region affected by rainfall properties and land use," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(1), pages 465-488, March.
    18. Haijun Deng & N. C. Pepin & Qun Liu & Yaning Chen, 2018. "Understanding the spatial differences in terrestrial water storage variations in the Tibetan Plateau from 2002 to 2016," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 379-393, December.
    19. Steven G. Pueppke & Margulan K. Iklasov & Volker Beckmann & Sabir T. Nurtazin & Niels Thevs & Sayat Sharakhmetov & Buho Hoshino, 2018. "Challenges for Sustainable Use of the Fish Resources from Lake Balkhash, a Fragile Lake in an Arid Ecosystem," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, April.
    20. Bin Guo & Zhongsheng Chen & Jinyun Guo & Feng Liu & Chuanfa Chen & Kangli Liu, 2016. "Analysis of the Nonlinear Trends and Non-Stationary Oscillations of Regional Precipitation in Xinjiang, Northwestern China, Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-20, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:177:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03673-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.