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An Integrated Approach for Partitioning the Effect of Climate Change and Human Activities on Surface Runoff

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  • Chesheng Zhan
  • Sidong Zeng
  • Shanshan Jiang
  • Huixiao Wang
  • Wen Ye

Abstract

Climate change and human activities have been identified as the two main reasons for the change in runoff. To better understand the factors causing runoff change, this paper develops an integrated approach which combined the elasticity coefficient approach (including a non-parametric model and six Budyko framework based models) and the hydrological modelling approach (using SIMHYD models) for partitioning the impacts of climate change and human activities on surface runoff. The Guanzhong River Basin(GRB), which is the sub-basin of the Wei River basin in China is chosen as the study area. In this study, trends in runoff, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from 1958 to 2008 are analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test and change-points in the annual runoff from 1958 to 2008 are sought using the Fu formula, Mann-Kendall test and double mass curve. The calibrated and validated rainfall-runoff model SIMHYD is used to simulate the runoff in the GRB during 1958–2008. Seven different methods are used to calculate the elasticity coefficient and then the elasticity coefficient methods are used to evaluate the contribution of climate change and human activities. Combining all these results, the contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff change is 34.1 ~ 47.3 and 52.7 ~ 65.9 %, respectively. The study provides scientific foundation for understanding the causes of water resources decrease and significant information for water resources management under the influence of climate change and human activities. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Chesheng Zhan & Sidong Zeng & Shanshan Jiang & Huixiao Wang & Wen Ye, 2014. "An Integrated Approach for Partitioning the Effect of Climate Change and Human Activities on Surface Runoff," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(11), pages 3843-3858, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:11:p:3843-3858
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0713-0
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    1. Depeng Zuo & Zongxue Xu & Wei Wu & Jie Zhao & Fangfang Zhao, 2014. "Identification of Streamflow Response to Climate Change and Human Activities in the Wei River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(3), pages 833-851, February.
    2. Aijing Zhang & Chi Zhang & Guobin Fu & Bende Wang & Zhenxin Bao & Hongxing Zheng, 2012. "Assessments of Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff with SWAT for the Huifa River Basin, Northeast China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(8), pages 2199-2217, June.
    3. Chong-yu Xu, 2000. "Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources in Central Sweden," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 14(3), pages 177-189, June.
    4. Xingming Hao & Yaning Chen & Changchun Xu & Weihong Li, 2008. "Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Surface Runoff in the Tarim River Basin over the Last Fifty Years," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(9), pages 1159-1171, September.
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    3. Junlong Liu & Jin Chen & Jijun Xu & Yuru Lin & Zhe Yuan & Mingyuan Zhou, 2019. "Attribution of Runoff Variation in the Headwaters of the Yangtze River Based on the Budyko Hypothesis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-15, July.
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    5. Wei Liang & Dan Bai & Zhao Jin & Yuchi You & Jiaxing Li & Yuting Yang, 2015. "A Study on the Streamflow Change and its Relationship with Climate Change and Ecological Restoration Measures in a Sediment Concentrated Region in the Loess Plateau, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(11), pages 4045-4060, September.
    6. Bo Cheng & Huaien Li, 2023. "Determination of River Ecological Base Flow Based on the Coupling Relationship of Sediment–Water Quality–Biodiversity in Water Shortage Area of Northwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-17, September.

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