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Variability of modeled runoff over China and its links to climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Mingxing Li

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Zhuguo Ma

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Meixia Lv

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Runoff is a key component of the water cycle over land, with direct impact on regional ecosystems and water resources. This study investigates historical runoff variability and change over China in 1951–2008 using the Community Land Model and in situ observations of atmospheric forcing fields. Model simulations are first evaluated against in situ observations of streamflow for four major rivers, as well as soil moisture and water table depths, before further analysis is conducted. Then, quantile regression is used to analyze runoff variability and its relation to precipitation and temperature. The spatial pattern of monthly climatological runoff over China is characterized by maxima in the humid south and a gradual decrease toward the arid northwest. Runoff increases in the humid south, slightly decreases in the transition zone, and shows nonsignificant trends in the arid northwest. The footprint of decadal variability can be seen from 1951 to 2008. The annual precipitation advances the spatiotemporal variability of runoff despite locally distinct runoff–precipitation responses. The runoff-temperature relationship shows complex spatiotemporal characteristics that depend on the feedback from precipitation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mingxing Li & Zhuguo Ma & Meixia Lv, 2017. "Variability of modeled runoff over China and its links to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 433-445, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:144:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-015-1593-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1593-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Qiang Zhang & Chong-Yu Xu & Tao Yang, 2009. "Variability of Water Resource in the Yellow River Basin of Past 50 Years, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(6), pages 1157-1170, April.
    2. Aijing Zhang & Chi Zhang & Guobin Fu & Bende Wang & Zhenxin Bao & Hongxing Zheng, 2012. "Assessments of Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff with SWAT for the Huifa River Basin, Northeast China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(8), pages 2199-2217, June.
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