IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v144y2017i3d10.1007_s10584-015-1593-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Variability of modeled runoff over China and its links to climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Mingxing Li

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Zhuguo Ma

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Meixia Lv

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Runoff is a key component of the water cycle over land, with direct impact on regional ecosystems and water resources. This study investigates historical runoff variability and change over China in 1951–2008 using the Community Land Model and in situ observations of atmospheric forcing fields. Model simulations are first evaluated against in situ observations of streamflow for four major rivers, as well as soil moisture and water table depths, before further analysis is conducted. Then, quantile regression is used to analyze runoff variability and its relation to precipitation and temperature. The spatial pattern of monthly climatological runoff over China is characterized by maxima in the humid south and a gradual decrease toward the arid northwest. Runoff increases in the humid south, slightly decreases in the transition zone, and shows nonsignificant trends in the arid northwest. The footprint of decadal variability can be seen from 1951 to 2008. The annual precipitation advances the spatiotemporal variability of runoff despite locally distinct runoff–precipitation responses. The runoff-temperature relationship shows complex spatiotemporal characteristics that depend on the feedback from precipitation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mingxing Li & Zhuguo Ma & Meixia Lv, 2017. "Variability of modeled runoff over China and its links to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 433-445, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:144:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-015-1593-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1593-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-015-1593-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-015-1593-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aijing Zhang & Chi Zhang & Guobin Fu & Bende Wang & Zhenxin Bao & Hongxing Zheng, 2012. "Assessments of Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff with SWAT for the Huifa River Basin, Northeast China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(8), pages 2199-2217, June.
    2. Qiang Zhang & Chong-Yu Xu & Tao Yang, 2009. "Variability of Water Resource in the Yellow River Basin of Past 50 Years, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(6), pages 1157-1170, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yixuan Wang & Jianzhu Li & Ping Feng & Rong Hu, 2015. "A Time-Dependent Drought Index for Non-Stationary Precipitation Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(15), pages 5631-5647, December.
    2. Xiaqing Feng & Guangxin Zhang & Xiongrui Yin, 2011. "Hydrological Responses to Climate Change in Nenjiang River Basin, Northeastern China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 677-689, January.
    3. Weibin Zhang & Xiaochun Zha & Jiaxing Li & Wei Liang & Yugai Ma & Dongmei Fan & Sha Li, 2014. "Spatiotemporal Change of Blue Water and Green Water Resources in the Headwater of Yellow River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(13), pages 4715-4732, October.
    4. Yiting Shao & Xiaohui Zhai & Xingmin Mu & Sen Zheng & Dandan Shen & Jinglin Qian, 2024. "An Attribution Analysis of Runoff Alterations in the Danjiang River Watershed for Sustainable Water Resource Management by Different Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-23, September.
    5. Guangju Zhao & Georg Hörmann & Nicola Fohrer & Zengxin Zhang & Jianqing Zhai, 2010. "Streamflow Trends and Climate Variability Impacts in Poyang Lake Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(4), pages 689-706, March.
    6. Weiwei Shao & Jinjun Zhou & Jiahong Liu & Haixing Zhang & Jianhua Wang & Chenyao Xiang & Guiyu Yang & Yun Tang, 2017. "An Effect Analysis of Comprehensive Treatment of Groundwater Over-Exploitation in Cheng’an County, Hebei Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, January.
    7. Xiaowen Zhuang & Yurui Fan & Yongping Li & Chuanbao Wu, 2023. "Evaluation Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Over the Upper Reach of the Yellow River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2875-2889, May.
    8. Fang, Q.X. & Ma, L. & Green, T.R. & Yu, Q. & Wang, T.D. & Ahuja, L.R., 2010. "Water resources and water use efficiency in the North China Plain: Current status and agronomic management options," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(8), pages 1102-1116, August.
    9. Orlińska-Woźniak, Paulina & Wilk, Paweł & Szalińska, Ewa, 2020. "Delimitation of nutrient vulnerable zones - a comprehensive method to manage a persistent problem of agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    10. Shan He & Tianling Qin & Fang Liu & Shanshan Liu & Biqiong Dong & Jianwei Wang & Hanjiang Nie, 2019. "Effects of Slope Ecological Restoration on Runoff and Its Response to Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-22, October.
    11. Dingfang Li & Huantian Xie & Lihua Xiong, 2014. "Temporal Change Analysis Based on Data Characteristics and Nonparametric Test," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(1), pages 227-240, January.
    12. Tiezhu Yan & Jianwen Bai & Amelia LEE ZHI YI & Zhenyao Shen, 2018. "SWAT-Simulated Streamflow Responses to Climate Variability and Human Activities in the Miyun Reservoir Basin by Considering Streamflow Components," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, March.
    13. Jatin Anand & Ashvani Kumar Gosain & Rakesh Khosa, 2018. "Optimisation of Multipurpose Reservoir Operation by Coupling Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Genetic Algorithm for Optimal Operating Policy (Case Study: Ganga River Basin)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-20, May.
    14. Xue, Jingyuan & Huo, Zailin & Kisekka, Isaya, 2021. "Assessing impacts of climate variability and changing cropping patterns on regional evapotranspiration, yield and water productivity in California’s San Joaquin watershed," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    15. Maryam Azizabadi Farahani & Davar Khalili, 2013. "Seasonality Characteristics and Spatio-temporal Trends of 7-day Low Flows in a Large, Semi-arid Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(14), pages 4897-4911, November.
    16. Zhengdong Zhang & Luwen Wan & Caiwen Dong & Yichun Xie & Chuanxun Yang & Ji Yang & Yong Li, 2018. "Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Surface Runoff in the Wuhua River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-21, September.
    17. Liu, Yanqi & Lin, Yifan & Huo, Zailin & Zhang, Chenglong & Wang, Chaozi & Xue, Jingyuan & Huang, Guanhua, 2022. "Spatio-temporal variation of irrigation water requirements for wheat and maize in the Yellow River Basin, China, 1974–2017," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    18. Jian Tang & Xin-An Yin & Pan Yang & ZhiFeng Yang, 2014. "Assessment of Contributions of Climatic Variation and Human Activities to Streamflow Changes in the Lancang River, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(10), pages 2953-2966, August.
    19. Wang, Jiankun & Cui, Chenfeng & Jia, Zhenyu & Liu, Mingtao & Pang, Shijie & Zhai, Ke, 2024. "Analysis of the responses of surface water resources to climate change in arid and semi-arid area," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    20. Omid Bozorg Haddad & M. Jahandideh-Tehrani & M. Mariño, 2013. "Discussion of “Assessments of Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff with SWAT for the Huifa River Basin, Northeast China” by Aijing Zhang; Chi Zhang; Guobin Fu; Bende Wang; Zhenxin ," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(7), pages 2071-2073, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:144:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-015-1593-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.