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Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology of the Upper Reach of the Spree River: Germany

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  • Mustafa Al-Mukhtar
  • Volkmar Dunger
  • Broder Merkel

Abstract

The aim of this study was to assess the potential impacts of future climate change on the hydrological response in the upper reach of the Spree River catchment using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model was calibrated for ten years (1997–2006) and validated with the data from four years (2007–2010) using average monthly stream flow. The impact of future climate change on precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration and stream flow was then investigated from two different downscaled climate models (CLM and WETTREG2010) under SRES A1B scenarios for two future periods (2021–2030 and 2041–2050). Besides that, sensitivity analysis was carried out with and without observations, to test robustness of the sensitivity algorithm used in the model. Results of the determination coefficient R 2 and Nasch-Sutcliff efficiency E NC were 0.81 and 0.80, respectively, during the calibration; 0.71 and 0.70, respectively, during the validation. Although some parameters were changed their sensitiveness ranking when the model run with observations, the SWAT model was, however, able to predict the top influential parameters without observations. According to 12 realizations from the two downscaled climate models, annual stream flow from 2021–2030 (2041–2050) is predicted to decrease by 39 % (43 %). This corresponds to an increase in annual evapotranspiration from 2021–2030 (2041–2050) of 36 % (38 %). The upper reach of the Spree River catchment will likely experience a significant decrease in stream flow due to the increasing in the evapotranspiration rates. This study could be of use for providing insight into the availability of future stream flow, and to provide a planning tool for this area. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Mustafa Al-Mukhtar & Volkmar Dunger & Broder Merkel, 2014. "Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology of the Upper Reach of the Spree River: Germany," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(10), pages 2731-2749, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:10:p:2731-2749
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0675-2
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    1. Boini Narsimlu & Ashvin Gosain & Baghu Chahar, 2013. "Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of Upper Sind River Basin, India Using SWAT Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3647-3662, August.
    2. Aijing Zhang & Chi Zhang & Guobin Fu & Bende Wang & Zhenxin Bao & Hongxing Zheng, 2012. "Assessments of Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff with SWAT for the Huifa River Basin, Northeast China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(8), pages 2199-2217, June.
    3. Chong-yu Xu, 2000. "Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources in Central Sweden," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 14(3), pages 177-189, June.
    4. B. Fiseha & S. Setegn & A. Melesse & E. Volpi & A. Fiori, 2014. "Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of Upper Tiber River Basin Using Bias Corrected Regional Climate Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1327-1343, March.
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    2. Babak Farjad & Anil Gupta & Danielle J. Marceau, 2016. "Annual and Seasonal Variations of Hydrological Processes Under Climate Change Scenarios in Two Sub-Catchments of a Complex Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(8), pages 2851-2865, June.
    3. Sandra Mourato & Madalena Moreira & João Corte-Real, 2015. "Water Resources Impact Assessment Under Climate Change Scenarios in Mediterranean Watersheds," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(7), pages 2377-2391, May.
    4. Moon-Hwan Lee & Deg-Hyo Bae & Eun-Soon Im, 2019. "Effect of the Horizontal Resolution of Climate Simulations on the Hydrological Representation of Extreme Low and High Flows," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(13), pages 4653-4666, October.
    5. Haseeb Akbar & Pariyapat Nilsalab & Thapat Silalertruksa & Shabbir H. Gheewala, 2023. "The Effect of Climate Change on the Hydropower Potential in the Kunhar River Watershed, Pakistan," World, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-19, November.
    6. Huantian Xie & Dingfang Li & Lihua Xiong, 2016. "Exploring the Regional Variance using ARMA-GARCH Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(10), pages 3507-3518, August.
    7. Sha Li & Wei Liang & Weibin Zhang & Qinghua Liu, 2016. "Response of Soil Moisture to Hydro-meteorological Variables Under Different Precipitation Gradients in the Yellow River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(6), pages 1867-1884, April.
    8. Włodzimierz Marszelewski & Bogusław Pawłowski, 2019. "Long-Term Changes in the Course of Ice Phenomena on the Oder River along the Polish–German Border," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(15), pages 5107-5120, December.
    9. Lingcheng Li & Liping Zhang & Jun Xia & Christopher Gippel & Renchao Wang & Sidong Zeng, 2015. "Implications of Modelled Climate and Land Cover Changes on Runoff in the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project in China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2563-2579, June.
    10. Sanjeet Kumar & Ashok Mishra, 2015. "Critical Erosion Area Identification Based on Hydrological Response Unit Level for Effective Sedimentation Control in a River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 1749-1765, April.

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