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The Effect of Climate Change on the Hydropower Potential in the Kunhar River Watershed, Pakistan

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  • Haseeb Akbar

    (The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok 10140, Thailand
    Center of Excellence on Energy Technology and Environment, Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation, Bangkok 10140, Thailand)

  • Pariyapat Nilsalab

    (The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok 10140, Thailand
    Center of Excellence on Energy Technology and Environment, Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation, Bangkok 10140, Thailand)

  • Thapat Silalertruksa

    (Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok 10140, Thailand)

  • Shabbir H. Gheewala

    (The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok 10140, Thailand
    Center of Excellence on Energy Technology and Environment, Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation, Bangkok 10140, Thailand)

Abstract

Climate change plays a vital role in the hydrology of any river basin, which may have multidimensional consequences. There is a need to conduct climate change impact assessment studies with updated models and scenarios. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on the streamflow and hydropower in Pakistan’s Kunhar River basin. Three general circulation models (GCMs), under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSPs 2–45 and 5–85), the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, and the flow duration curve were used to project the change in climatic parameters, streamflow, and hydropower potential, respectively. The findings indicated that in the 2080s, the precipitation, maximum, and minimum temperatures are projected to increase by 10%, 2.0 °C, and 3.0 °C under the SSP 2–45 scenario and are projected to increase by 8%, 3.7 °C, and 4.4 °C under the SSP 5–85 scenario, respectively. The annual streamflow may increase by 15 to 11%, and the seasonal fluctuations are more likely to be dominant compared with the annual fluctuations. The hydropower potential will probably increase by 24 to 16% under the SSP 2–45 and 5–85 scenarios in the 2080s. However, seasonal changes in streamflow and hydropower may impact the hydropower plant operation in the basin. The Kunhar River’s hydrology may change from snow-fed to a rainfall–runoff river.

Suggested Citation

  • Haseeb Akbar & Pariyapat Nilsalab & Thapat Silalertruksa & Shabbir H. Gheewala, 2023. "The Effect of Climate Change on the Hydropower Potential in the Kunhar River Watershed, Pakistan," World, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-19, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jworld:v:4:y:2023:i:4:p:49-794:d:1285247
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    References listed on IDEAS

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