IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jworld/v4y2023i4p49-794d1285247.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effect of Climate Change on the Hydropower Potential in the Kunhar River Watershed, Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Haseeb Akbar

    (The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok 10140, Thailand
    Center of Excellence on Energy Technology and Environment, Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation, Bangkok 10140, Thailand)

  • Pariyapat Nilsalab

    (The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok 10140, Thailand
    Center of Excellence on Energy Technology and Environment, Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation, Bangkok 10140, Thailand)

  • Thapat Silalertruksa

    (Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok 10140, Thailand)

  • Shabbir H. Gheewala

    (The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok 10140, Thailand
    Center of Excellence on Energy Technology and Environment, Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation, Bangkok 10140, Thailand)

Abstract

Climate change plays a vital role in the hydrology of any river basin, which may have multidimensional consequences. There is a need to conduct climate change impact assessment studies with updated models and scenarios. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on the streamflow and hydropower in Pakistan’s Kunhar River basin. Three general circulation models (GCMs), under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSPs 2–45 and 5–85), the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, and the flow duration curve were used to project the change in climatic parameters, streamflow, and hydropower potential, respectively. The findings indicated that in the 2080s, the precipitation, maximum, and minimum temperatures are projected to increase by 10%, 2.0 °C, and 3.0 °C under the SSP 2–45 scenario and are projected to increase by 8%, 3.7 °C, and 4.4 °C under the SSP 5–85 scenario, respectively. The annual streamflow may increase by 15 to 11%, and the seasonal fluctuations are more likely to be dominant compared with the annual fluctuations. The hydropower potential will probably increase by 24 to 16% under the SSP 2–45 and 5–85 scenarios in the 2080s. However, seasonal changes in streamflow and hydropower may impact the hydropower plant operation in the basin. The Kunhar River’s hydrology may change from snow-fed to a rainfall–runoff river.

Suggested Citation

  • Haseeb Akbar & Pariyapat Nilsalab & Thapat Silalertruksa & Shabbir H. Gheewala, 2023. "The Effect of Climate Change on the Hydropower Potential in the Kunhar River Watershed, Pakistan," World, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-19, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jworld:v:4:y:2023:i:4:p:49-794:d:1285247
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4060/4/4/49/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4060/4/4/49/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zaidi, Arjumand Z. & Khan, Majid, 2018. "Identifying high potential locations for run-of-the-river hydroelectric power plants using GIS and digital elevation models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 106-116.
    2. Moiz, Abdul & Kawasaki, Akiyuki & Koike, Toshio & Shrestha, Maheswor, 2018. "A systematic decision support tool for robust hydropower site selection in poorly gauged basins," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 309-321.
    3. Mustafa Al-Mukhtar & Volkmar Dunger & Broder Merkel, 2014. "Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology of the Upper Reach of the Spree River: Germany," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(10), pages 2731-2749, August.
    4. Ruth Kattumuri, 2018. "Sustaining natural resources in a changing environment: evidence, policy and impact," Contemporary Social Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gerardo Alcalá & Luis Fernando Grisales-Noreña & Quetzalcoatl Hernandez-Escobedo & Jose Javier Muñoz-Criollo & J. D. Revuelta-Acosta, 2021. "SHP Assessment for a Run-of-River (RoR) Scheme Using a Rectangular Mesh Sweeping Approach (MSA) Based on GIS," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-21, May.
    2. Dhaubanjar, Sanita & Lutz, Arthur F & Pradhananga, Saurav & Smolenaars, Wouter & Khanal, Sonu & Biemans, Hester & Nepal, Santosh & Ludwig, Fulco & Shrestha, Arun Bhakta & Immerzeel, Walter W, 2024. "From theoretical to sustainable potential for run-of-river hydropower development in the upper Indus basin," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    3. Tamm, Ottar & Tamm, Toomas, 2020. "Verification of a robust method for sizing and siting the small hydropower run-of-river plant potential by using GIS," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 153-159.
    4. Efthymios Moutsiakis & Athena Yiannakou, 2023. "Small Hydroelectric Energy and Spatial Planning: A Methodology Introducing the Concept of Territorial Carrying Capacity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-15, March.
    5. Lingcheng Li & Liping Zhang & Jun Xia & Christopher Gippel & Renchao Wang & Sidong Zeng, 2015. "Implications of Modelled Climate and Land Cover Changes on Runoff in the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project in China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2563-2579, June.
    6. Besharati Fard, Moein & Moradian, Parisa & Emarati, Mohammadreza & Ebadi, Mehdi & Gholamzadeh Chofreh, Abdoulmohammad & Klemeŝ, Jiří Jaromír, 2022. "Ground-mounted photovoltaic power station site selection and economic analysis based on a hybrid fuzzy best-worst method and geographic information system: A case study Guilan province," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    7. Joryme Mwira Kahambu & Emile Kamwimba Zola & David Nsiku Nsimba, 2024. "Species composition of Home gardens and Food security in Maluku, Kinshasa," Journal of Scientific Reports, IJSAB International, vol. 6(1), pages 36-45.
    8. Sandra Mourato & Madalena Moreira & João Corte-Real, 2015. "Water Resources Impact Assessment Under Climate Change Scenarios in Mediterranean Watersheds," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(7), pages 2377-2391, May.
    9. Qiu, Lihua & He, Li & Kang, Yu & Liang, Dongzhe, 2022. "Assessment of the potential of enhanced geothermal systems in Asia under the impact of global warming," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 636-646.
    10. Kuriqi, Alban & Pinheiro, António N. & Sordo-Ward, Alvaro & Garrote, Luis, 2019. "Flow regime aspects in determining environmental flows and maximising energy production at run-of-river hydropower plants," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    11. Babak Farjad & Anil Gupta & Danielle J. Marceau, 2016. "Annual and Seasonal Variations of Hydrological Processes Under Climate Change Scenarios in Two Sub-Catchments of a Complex Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(8), pages 2851-2865, June.
    12. David Werth & Kuo-Fu Chen, 2015. "The Application of a Statistical Downscaling Process to Derive 21st Century River Flow Predictions Using a Global Climate Simulation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(3), pages 849-861, February.
    13. Safder, Usman & Hai, Tra Nguyen & Loy-Benitez, Jorge & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2022. "Nationwide policymaking strategies to prevent future electricity crises in developing countries using data-driven forecasting and fuzzy-SWOT analyses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    14. Huantian Xie & Dingfang Li & Lihua Xiong, 2016. "Exploring the Regional Variance using ARMA-GARCH Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(10), pages 3507-3518, August.
    15. Ayad, Fayssal, 2023. "Mapping the path forward: A prospective model of natural resource depletion and sustainable development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    16. Soulis, Konstantinos X. & Manolakos, Dimitris & Ntavou, Erika & Kosmadakis, George, 2022. "A geospatial analysis approach for the operational assessment of solar ORC systems. Case study: Performance evaluation of a two-stage solar ORC engine in Greece," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 116-128.
    17. Jan K. Kazak & Małgorzata Świąder, 2018. "SOLIS—A Novel Decision Support Tool for the Assessment of Solar Radiation in ArcGIS," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-12, August.
    18. Eduardo Medeiros, 2021. "The Global Development Formula," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-15, May.
    19. Sanjeet Kumar & Ashok Mishra, 2015. "Critical Erosion Area Identification Based on Hydrological Response Unit Level for Effective Sedimentation Control in a River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 1749-1765, April.
    20. Olatunji A. Shobande & Simplice A. Asongu, 2022. "The Dilemmas of Relevance: Exploring the role of Natural resources and the Carbon Kuznets Curve hypothesis in managing climate crisis in Africa," Working Papers 22/077, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jworld:v:4:y:2023:i:4:p:49-794:d:1285247. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.