IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v32y2018i2d10.1007_s11269-017-1826-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Copulas-Based Drought Characteristics Analysis and Risk Assessment across the Loess Plateau of China

Author

Listed:
  • Dunxian She

    (Wuhan University
    Hubei Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resources Security)

  • Jun Xia

    (Wuhan University
    Hubei Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resources Security)

Abstract

The Loess Plateau (LP) of China is famous with soil erosion and water shortage problems. Droughts were frequently occurred in this region, which becomes a critical limiting factor to the socioeconomic development, ecology and food production. Therefore, the major motivation of the present study is to investigate the drought characteristics and assess the potential drought risk in this area, which is crucial for drought resistance, water resource management as well as agricultural production. This study analyzes the variations of meteorological drought, characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and assesses the drought hazards in the LP during 1950–2014. The results show that the northwest of LP is more likely to experience long duration and large severity droughts than the southeast of LP. From the perspective of statistical probability models, the exponential distribution and Gamma distribution can well fit the drought duration and severity, respectively. Compared to Frank and Clayton copula, the Gumbel copula can better model the dependence structure between the drought variables in our study area. Moreover, the estimation of the upper tail dependence coefficient between drought duration and severity also demonstrate that Gumbel copula can provide the best description of the upper tail. The spatial distribution of joint return period under different cases indicates that drought risk in northwestern LP is relatively higher than that in other areas of LP. The results presented in this study can provide some scientific basis for the strategic planning of drought resistance and water resource management in the LP.

Suggested Citation

  • Dunxian She & Jun Xia, 2018. "Copulas-Based Drought Characteristics Analysis and Risk Assessment across the Loess Plateau of China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(2), pages 547-564, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1826-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1826-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-017-1826-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-017-1826-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Justin Sheffield & Eric F. Wood & Michael L. Roderick, 2012. "Little change in global drought over the past 60 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 491(7424), pages 435-438, November.
    2. Frahm, Gabriel & Junker, Markus & Schmidt, Rafael, 2005. "Estimating the tail-dependence coefficient: Properties and pitfalls," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 80-100, August.
    3. Xiaojing Liu & Jiquan Zhang & Donglai Ma & Yulong Bao & Zhijun Tong & Xingpeng Liu, 2013. "Dynamic risk assessment of drought disaster for maize based on integrating multi-sources data in the region of the northwest of Liaoning Province, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1393-1409, February.
    4. Huard, David & Evin, Guillaume & Favre, Anne-Catherine, 2006. "Bayesian copula selection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 809-822, November.
    5. Genest, Christian & Rémillard, Bruno & Beaudoin, David, 2009. "Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas: A review and a power study," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 199-213, April.
    6. J. Shiau, 2006. "Fitting Drought Duration and Severity with Two-Dimensional Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(5), pages 795-815, October.
    7. G. Tsakiris & D. Pangalou & H. Vangelis, 2007. "Regional Drought Assessment Based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(5), pages 821-833, May.
    8. Kevin E. Trenberth & Aiguo Dai & Gerard van der Schrier & Philip D. Jones & Jonathan Barichivich & Keith R. Briffa & Justin Sheffield, 2014. "Global warming and changes in drought," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 17-22, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Xiaole & Mak-Mensah, Erastus & Zhao, Wucheng & Wang, Qi & Zhou, Xujiao & Zhang, Dengkui & Zhu, Jinhui & Qi, Wenjia & Liu, Qinglin & Li, Xiaoling & Li, Xuchun & Liu, Bing, 2024. "Optimized ridge-furrow technology with biochar amendment for alfalfa yield enhancement and soil erosion reduction based on a structural equation model on sloping land," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    2. Mohamad Haytham Klaho & Hamid R. Safavi & Mohammad H. Golmohammadi & Maamoun Alkntar, 2022. "Comparison between bivariate and trivariate flood frequency analysis using the Archimedean copula functions, a case study of the Karun River in Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1589-1610, June.
    3. Neshat Jahannemaei & Payam Khosravinia & Hadi Sanikhani & Rasoul Mirabbasi, 2023. "Toward analyzing meteorological droughts in western Iran: a multivariate approach based on vine copulas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 1903-1929, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lamneithem Hangshing & Parmendra P. Dabral, 2018. "Multivariate Frequency Analysis of Meteorological Drought Using Copula," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1741-1758, March.
    2. L. Vergni & F. Todisco & F. Mannocchi, 2015. "Analysis of agricultural drought characteristics through a two-dimensional copula," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2819-2835, June.
    3. Poulomi Ganguli & M. Reddy, 2012. "Risk Assessment of Droughts in Gujarat Using Bivariate Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(11), pages 3301-3327, September.
    4. Shahid Latif & Slobodan P. Simonovic, 2023. "Trivariate Probabilistic Assessments of the Compound Flooding Events Using the 3-D Fully Nested Archimedean (FNA) Copula in the Semiparametric Distribution Setting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(4), pages 1641-1693, March.
    5. Vergni, L. & Todisco, F. & Di Lena, B. & Mannocchi, F., 2020. "Bivariate analysis of drought duration and severity for irrigation planning," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    6. Jenq-Tzong Shiau & Jia-Wei Lin, 2016. "Clustering Quantile Regression-Based Drought Trends in Taiwan," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 1053-1069, February.
    7. Panagiotis D. Oikonomou & Christos A. Karavitis & Demetrios E. Tsesmelis & Elpida Kolokytha & Rodrigo Maia, 2020. "Drought Characteristics Assessment in Europe over the Past 50 Years," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(15), pages 4757-4772, December.
    8. Ge, Yan & Cai, Ximing & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia, 2016. "Drought frequency change: An assessment in northern India plains," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 111-121.
    9. Ziqiang Xing & Denghua Yan & Cheng Zhang & Gang Wang & Dongdong Zhang, 2015. "Spatial Characterization and Bivariate Frequency Analysis of Precipitation and Runoff in the Upper Huai River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3291-3304, July.
    10. Linghui Guo & Yuanyuan Luo & Yao Li & Tianping Wang & Jiangbo Gao & Hebing Zhang & Youfeng Zou & Shaohong Wu, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Changes and the Prediction of Drought Characteristics in a Major Grain-Producing Area of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-19, November.
    11. Katarzyna Baran-Gurgul, 2022. "The Risk of Extreme Streamflow Drought in the Polish Carpathians—A Two-Dimensional Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-27, October.
    12. Youxin Wang & Tao Peng & Qingxia Lin & Vijay P. Singh & Xiaohua Dong & Chen Chen & Ji Liu & Wenjuan Chang & Gaoxu Wang, 2022. "A New Non-stationary Hydrological Drought Index Encompassing Climate Indices and Modified Reservoir Index as Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(7), pages 2433-2454, May.
    13. Xun Lu & Kin Lai & Liang Liang, 2014. "Portfolio value-at-risk estimation in energy futures markets with time-varying copula-GARCH model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 219(1), pages 333-357, August.
    14. Pere Quintana-Seguí & Anaïs Barella-Ortiz & Sabela Regueiro-Sanfiz & Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, 2020. "The Utility of Land-Surface Model Simulations to Provide Drought Information in a Water Management Context Using Global and Local Forcing Datasets," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(7), pages 2135-2156, May.
    15. Jagadish Padhiary & Kanhu Charan Patra & Sonam Sandeep Dash, 2022. "A Novel Approach to Identify the Characteristics of Drought under Future Climate Change Scenario," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(13), pages 5163-5189, October.
    16. Shan Jiang & Jian Zhou & Guojie Wang & Qigen Lin & Ziyan Chen & Yanjun Wang & Buda Su, 2022. "Cropland Exposed to Drought Is Overestimated without Considering the CO 2 Effect in the Arid Climatic Region of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-21, June.
    17. Qiang Zhang & Tianyao Qi & Vijay Singh & Yongqin Chen & Mingzhong Xiao, 2015. "Regional Frequency Analysis of Droughts in China: A Multivariate Perspective," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 1767-1787, April.
    18. D. Chiru Naik & Sagar Rohidas Chavan & P. Sonali, 2023. "Incorporating the climate oscillations in the computation of meteorological drought over India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2617-2646, July.
    19. Zhang, Yuliang & Wu, Zhiyong & Singh, Vijay P. & Lin, Qingxia & Ning, Shaowei & Zhou, Yuliang & Jin, Juliang & Zhou, Rongxing & Ma, Qiang, 2023. "Agricultural drought characteristics in a typical plain region considering irrigation, crop growth, and water demand impacts," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    20. Ruperto Ortiz-Gómez & Roberto S. Flowers-Cano & Guillermo Medina-García, 2022. "Sensitivity of the RDI and SPEI Drought Indices to Different Models for Estimating Evapotranspiration Potential in Semiarid Regions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(7), pages 2471-2492, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1826-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.