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Precipitation Forecasting Using Wavelet-Genetic Programming and Wavelet-Neuro-Fuzzy Conjunction Models

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  • Ozgur Kisi
  • Jalal Shiri

Abstract

Forecasting precipitation as a major component of the hydrological cycle is of primary importance in water resources engineering, planning and management as well as in scheduling irrigation practices. In the present study the abilities of hybrid wavelet-genetic programming [i.e. wavelet-gene-expression programming, WGEP] and wavelet-neuro-fuzzy (WNF) models for daily precipitation forecasting are investigated. In the first step, the single genetic programming (GEP) and neuro-fuzzy (NF) models are applied to forecast daily precipitation amounts based on previously recorded values, but the results are very weak. In the next step the hybrid WGEP and WNF models are used by introducing the wavelet coefficients as GEP and NF inputs, but no satisfactory results are produced, even though the accuracies increased to a great extent. In the third step, the new WGEP and WNF models are built; by merging the best single and hybrid models’ inputs and introducing them as the models inputs. The results show the new hybrid WGEP models are effective in forecasting daily precipitation, while the new WNF models are unable to learn the non linear process of precipitation very well. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Ozgur Kisi & Jalal Shiri, 2011. "Precipitation Forecasting Using Wavelet-Genetic Programming and Wavelet-Neuro-Fuzzy Conjunction Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(13), pages 3135-3152, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:25:y:2011:i:13:p:3135-3152
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-011-9849-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wensheng Wang & Juliang Jin & Yueqing Li, 2009. "Prediction of Inflow at Three Gorges Dam in Yangtze River with Wavelet Network Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(13), pages 2791-2803, October.
    2. Hui-cheng Zhou & Yong Peng & Guo-hua Liang, 2008. "The Research of Monthly Discharge Predictor-corrector Model Based on Wavelet Decomposition," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(2), pages 217-227, February.
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    1. Lakhwinder Pal Singh & Ravi Teja Challa, 2016. "Integrated Forecasting Using the Discrete Wavelet Theory and Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Reduce the Bullwhip Effect in a Supply Chain," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 17(2), pages 157-169, June.
    2. Prashant K. Srivastava & Manika Gupta & Ujjwal Singh & Rajendra Prasad & Prem Chandra Pandey & A. S. Raghubanshi & George P. Petropoulos, 2021. "Sensitivity analysis of artificial neural network for chlorophyll prediction using hyperspectral data," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5504-5519, April.
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    5. E. Fallah-Mehdipour & O. Bozorg Haddad & M. Mariño, 2012. "Real-Time Operation of Reservoir System by Genetic Programming," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(14), pages 4091-4103, November.
    6. Neslihan Seckin & Aytac Guven, 2012. "Estimation of Peak Flood Discharges at Ungauged Sites Across Turkey," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2569-2581, July.
    7. Majid Dehghani & Hossein Riahi-Madvar & Farhad Hooshyaripor & Amir Mosavi & Shahaboddin Shamshirband & Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas & Kwok-wing Chau, 2019. "Prediction of Hydropower Generation Using Grey Wolf Optimization Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-20, January.
    8. Darren Beriro & Robert Abrahart & Nick Mount & C. Nathanail, 2012. "Letter to the Editor on “Precipitation Forecasting Using Wavelet-Genetic Programming and Wavelet-Neuro-Fuzzy Conjunction Models” by Ozgur Kisi & Jalal Shiri [Water Resources Management 25 (2011) 3135–," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(12), pages 3653-3662, September.
    9. Rajeev Sahay & Ayush Srivastava, 2014. "Predicting Monsoon Floods in Rivers Embedding Wavelet Transform, Genetic Algorithm and Neural Network," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(2), pages 301-317, January.
    10. Sajjad Abdollahi & Jalil Raeisi & Mohammadreza Khalilianpour & Farshad Ahmadi & Ozgur Kisi, 2017. "Daily Mean Streamflow Prediction in Perennial and Non-Perennial Rivers Using Four Data Driven Techniques," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(15), pages 4855-4874, December.
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    13. Pratik Pathak & Ajay Kalra & Sajjad Ahmad & Miguel Bernardez, 2016. "Wavelet-Aided Analysis to Estimate Seasonal Variability and Dominant Periodicities in Temperature, Precipitation, and Streamflow in the Midwestern United States," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4649-4665, October.
    14. E. Fallah-Mehdipour & O. Bozorg Haddad & H. Orouji & M. Mariño, 2013. "Application of Genetic Programming in Stage Hydrograph Routing of Open Channels," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(9), pages 3261-3272, July.
    15. Liping Li & Pan Liu & David Rheinheimer & Chao Deng & Yanlai Zhou, 2014. "Identifying Explicit Formulation of Operating Rules for Multi-Reservoir Systems Using Genetic Programming," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(6), pages 1545-1565, April.
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