IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/soinre/v173y2024i3d10.1007_s11205-024-03353-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring the Dynamics of the Elderly Population and Economic Growth: A Comparative Analysis Across Continents

Author

Listed:
  • Thaveesha Jayawardhana

    (Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology)

  • Ruwan Jayathilaka

    (Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology)

  • Sachini Anuththara

    (Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology)

  • Thamasha Nimnadi

    (Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology)

  • Ridhmi Karadanaarachchi

    (Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology)

  • Kethaka Galappaththi

    (Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology)

Abstract

This paper explores the cause-and-effect relationship between the elderly population and global economic growth, focusing on different continents. A panel dataset spanning from 1961 to 2020 is utilized, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) serving as the key measure for economic growth, represented as the percentage change in annual GDP. The study specifically centers on individuals aged 65 and above as a percentage of the total population. The analysis employs a Panel Granger causality test to assess the impact of the elderly population on economic growth. The results reveal a unidirectional Granger causality for Africa and Oceania, suggesting a one-way influence from the elderly population to economic growth. Conversely, instances of bidirectional Granger causality are identified for Asia, Europe, North America, and South America, indicating a mutual influence between the elderly population and economic growth during the study period. The study concludes that an endogenous relationship between economic growth and the elderly population emerges, but notably, this relationship becomes apparent only after an economy has completed its transition in economic development. This implies that the dynamics of the elderly population and economic growth are interlinked, with the nature of their interaction becoming more pronounced in the later stages of economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Thaveesha Jayawardhana & Ruwan Jayathilaka & Sachini Anuththara & Thamasha Nimnadi & Ridhmi Karadanaarachchi & Kethaka Galappaththi, 2024. "Exploring the Dynamics of the Elderly Population and Economic Growth: A Comparative Analysis Across Continents," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 543-568, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:173:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s11205-024-03353-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11205-024-03353-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11205-024-03353-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11205-024-03353-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    2. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    3. Heinrich Hock & David Weil, 2012. "On the dynamics of the age structure, dependency, and consumption," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 1019-1043, July.
    4. Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan & Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Khanam, Rasheda, 2020. "The relation between an ageing population and economic growth in Bangladesh: Evidence from an endogenous growth model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 14-25.
    5. Charles Yuji Horioka & Peter J. Morgan & Yoko Niimi & Guanghua Wan, 2018. "Aging in Asia: Introduction to Symposium," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 879-884, August.
    6. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2023. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 306-332, April.
    7. Crimmins, E.M. & Zhang, Y. & Saito, Y., 2016. "Trends over 4 decades in disability-free life expectancy in the United States," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1287-1293.
    8. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
    9. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason, 2010. "Fertility, Human Capital, and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition [Fécondité, capital humain et croissance économique au cours de la transition démographique]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 159-182, May.
    10. Naeem Akram, 2016. "Public debt and pro-poor economic growth evidence from South Asian countries," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 746-757, January.
    11. Graţiela Georgiana Noja & Simona Mirela Cristea & Atila Yüksel & Ciprian Pânzaru & Raluca Mihaela Drăcea, 2018. "Migrants’ Role in Enhancing the Economic Development of Host Countries: Empirical Evidence from Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-32, March.
    12. Lei He & Na Li, 2020. "The linkages between life expectancy and economic growth: some new evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2381-2402, May.
    13. Yingzhu Yang & Rong Zheng & Lexiang Zhao, 2021. "Population Aging, Health Investment and Economic Growth: Based on a Cross-Country Panel Data Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-16, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wen-Hsin Huang & Yen-Ju Lin & Hsien-Feng Lee, 2019. "Impact of Population and Workforce Aging on Economic Growth: Case Study of Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-13, November.
    2. Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan & Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Khanam, Rasheda, 2020. "The relation between an ageing population and economic growth in Bangladesh: Evidence from an endogenous growth model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 14-25.
    3. Siow Li Lai & Tien Ming Yip, 2022. "The role of older workers in population aging–economic growth nexus: evidence from developing countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1875-1912, August.
    4. Emerson, Patrick & Knabb, Shawn & Sirbu, Anca-Ioana, 2024. "Does the old-age dependency ratio place a drag on secular growth?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1056-1070.
    5. Yingzhu Yang & Rong Zheng & Lexiang Zhao, 2021. "Population Aging, Health Investment and Economic Growth: Based on a Cross-Country Panel Data Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Olugbenga Oladinrin & Kasun Gomis & Wadu Mesthrige Jayantha & Lovelin Obi & Muhammad Qasim Rana, 2021. "Scientometric Analysis of Global Scientific Literature on Aging in Place," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-16, November.
    7. Lee, R., 2016. "Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 59-118, Elsevier.
    8. Prempeh Kwadwo Boateng & Frimpong Joseph Magnus & Yeboah Samuel Asuamah, 2024. "The dynamics of financial development, environmental degradation, economic growth and population health in the Economic Community of West African States," Environmental & Socio-economic Studies, Sciendo, vol. 12(2), pages 13-27.
    9. Iñigo Calvo-Sotomayor & Ekhi Atutxa & Ricardo Aguado, 2020. "Who Is Afraid of Population Aging? Myths, Challenges and an Open Question from the Civil Economy Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-17, July.
    10. Attar, M. Aykut, 2013. "Growth and Demography in Turkey: Economic History vs. Pro-Natalist Rhetoric," MPRA Paper 47275, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Katarzyna Maj-Waśniowska & Tomasz Jedynak, 2020. "The Issues and Challenges of Local Government Units in the Era of Population Ageing," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, June.
    12. Goh, Soo Khoon & McNown, Robert & Wong, Koi Nyen, 2020. "Macroeconomic implications of population aging: Evidence from Japan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    13. Prettner, Klaus & Bloom, David E. & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "Declining fertility and economic well-being: Do education and health ride to the rescue?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 70-79.
    14. Kopecky, Joseph, 2023. "Population age structure and secular stagnation: Evidence from long run data," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    15. Lee, Hyun-Hoon & Shin, Kwanho, 2019. "Nonlinear effects of population aging on economic growth," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-1.
    16. Giuseppe Croce & Andrea Ricci & Giuliana Tesauro, 2019. "Pensions reforms, workforce ageing and firm-provided welfare," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(32), pages 3480-3497, July.
    17. Abrigo, Michael R.M. & Racelis, Rachel H. & Salas, J.M. Ian & Herrin, Alejandro N., 2016. "Decomposing economic gains from population age structure transition in the Philippines," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 19-27.
    18. Evsey T. Gurvich & Maria A. Ivanova, 2018. "Economic Effect of Population Ageing and Pension Reforms," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 5, pages 9-22, October.
    19. Carmen Herrero & Ricardo Martínez & Antonio Villar, 2019. "Population Structure and the Human Development Index," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 731-763, January.
    20. repec:got:cegedp:139 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. MIyamoto Hiroaki & Yoshino Naoyuki, 2021. "Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Aging Economies," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 17(3), pages 1-18, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:173:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s11205-024-03353-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.