IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v95y2024ics1059056024004222.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of population aging on bank loan portfolios: Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Zeguang
  • Huang, Yuanbiao
  • Hou, Keqiang

Abstract

We investigate the impacts of population aging on bank lending using micro-level data from the Chinese banking industry. We find that an aging population significantly reduces the volume of bank lending. The underlying mechanism driving this trend comes from a reduction in bank deposits and a decline in banks' risk-taking. At the same time, population aging induces a structural change in banks' loan portfolios. Banks are strategically reducing the share of their loan portfolios exposed to the greater risks associated with an aging population; additionally, they utilize cross-regional operations to lessen the adverse effects of aging. The contractionary effect of population aging on bank lending is more pronounced for non-state banks and banks in highly competitive markets. These findings highlight the importance of considering population aging in assessing both the aggregate volume and the structural composition of bank loans.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Zeguang & Huang, Yuanbiao & Hou, Keqiang, 2024. "Impacts of population aging on bank loan portfolios: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:95:y:2024:i:c:s1059056024004222
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103430
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056024004222
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2024.103430?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Robert J. Gordon, 2016. "The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10544.
    3. Valery Polkovnichenko, 2003. "Human Capital and the Private Equity Premium," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 831-845, October.
    4. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    5. Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian, 2011. "The Potato's Contribution to Population and Urbanization: Evidence From A Historical Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(2), pages 593-650.
    6. Matthew Serfling, 2016. "Firing Costs and Capital Structure Decisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(5), pages 2239-2286, October.
    7. Sclip, Alex & Girardone, Claudia & Beltrame, Federico & Paltrinieri, Andrea, 2021. "Bank risks and lending outcomes: Evidence from QE," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    8. Nicola Cetorelli & Philip E. Strahan, 2006. "Finance as a Barrier to Entry: Bank Competition and Industry Structure in Local U.S. Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 437-461, February.
    9. Siliverstovs, Boriss & Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Thiessen, Ulrich, 2011. "Does aging influence structural change? Evidence from panel data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 244-260, June.
    10. Curtis, Chadwick C. & Lugauer, Steven & Mark, Nelson C., 2017. "Demographics and aggregate household saving in Japan, China, and India," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 175-191.
    11. Charles Yuji HORIOKA & Wataru SUZUKI & Tatsuo HATTA, 2007. "Aging, Savings, and Public Pensions in Japan," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 2(2), pages 303-319, December.
    12. Thomas Lindh & Bo Malmberg, 1999. "Age structure effects and growth in the OECD, 1950-1990," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(3), pages 431-449.
    13. Patrick A. Imam, 2015. "Shock from Graying: Is the Demographic Shift Weakening Monetary Policy Effectiveness," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 138-154, March.
    14. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John B. Jones, 2010. "Why Do the Elderly Save? The Role of Medical Expenses," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(1), pages 39-75, February.
    15. Anginer, Deniz & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Zhu, Min, 2014. "How does competition affect bank systemic risk?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-26.
    16. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2017. "Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 174-179, May.
    17. Adrien Auclert & Hannes Malmberg & Frederic Martenet & Matthew Rognlie, 2021. "Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century," NBER Working Papers 29161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Cai, Jie & Stoyanov, Andrey, 2016. "Population aging and comparative advantage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-21.
    19. Saiying (Esther) Deng & Elyas Elyasiani, 2008. "Geographic Diversification, Bank Holding Company Value, and Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1217-1238, September.
    20. Pierre Azoulay & Benjamin F. Jones & J. Daniel Kim & Javier Miranda, 2020. "Age and High-Growth Entrepreneurship," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 65-82, March.
    21. Cohn, Richard A, et al, 1975. "Individual Investor Risk Aversion and Investment Portfolio Composition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 605-620, May.
    22. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2004. "Competition and financial stability," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 453-486.
    23. Kevin Milligan, 2005. "Life‐cycle asset accumulation and allocation in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 1057-1106, August.
    24. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1488-1542, June.
    25. Bo Zhang & Ruixue Zhou & Limei Yang & Ximeng Zhang, 2023. "Population aging and corporate innovation: evidence from China," Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 986-1007, July.
    26. Keeley, Michael C, 1990. "Deposit Insurance, Risk, and Market Power in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1183-1200, December.
    27. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2023. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 306-332, April.
    28. Daron Acemoglu, 2010. "When Does Labor Scarcity Encourage Innovation?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(6), pages 1037-1078.
    29. Ananou, Foly & Chronopoulos, Dimitris K. & Tarazi, Amine & Wilson, John O.S., 2021. "Liquidity regulation and bank lending," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    30. Dekle, Robert & Lee, Mihye, 2015. "Do foreign bank affiliates cut their lending more than the domestic banks in a financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 16-32.
    31. Roberts, Daniel & Sarkar, Asani & Shachar, Or, 2023. "Liquidity regulations, bank lending and fire-sale risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    32. John V. Leahy & Aditi Thapar, 2022. "Age Structure and the Impact of Monetary Policy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 136-173, October.
    33. Bakshi, Gurdip S & Chen, Zhiwu, 1994. "Baby Boom, Population Aging, and Capital Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 165-202, April.
    34. Kim, Hyunseob, 2020. "How does labor market size affect firm capital structure? Evidence from large plant openings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 277-294.
    35. Klaus Prettner, 2013. "Population aging and endogenous economic growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 811-834, April.
    36. Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen & Lee, Ronald, 2003. "Rising longevity, education, savings, and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 83-101, February.
    37. Tan, Youchao & Liu, Xiumei & Sun, Hanwen & Zeng, Cheng(Colin), 2022. "Population ageing, labour market rigidity and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(2).
    38. Jiakai Zhang & Renjie Zhao, 2022. "The effect of population aging on pension enforcement: Do firms bear the burden?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1644-1662, October.
    39. Delis, Manthos D. & Kouretas, Georgios P. & Tsoumas, Chris, 2014. "Anxious periods and bank lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-13.
    40. Jonathan Gruber & David Wise, 2001. "An International Perspective on Policies for an Aging Society," NBER Working Papers 8103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Menahem E. Yaari, 1965. "Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 32(2), pages 137-150.
    42. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Okumura, Koki, 2021. "The aging society, savings rates, and regional flow of funds in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    43. Saiying (Esther) Deng & Elyas Elyasiani, 2008. "Geographic Diversification, Bank Holding Company Value, and Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1217-1238, September.
    44. Elena Simintzi & Vikrant Vig & Paolo Volpin, 2015. "Labor Protection and Leverage," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(2), pages 561-591.
    45. Xudong Chen & Bihong Huang & Shaoshuai Li, 2018. "Population ageing and inequality: Evidence from China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(8), pages 1976-2000, August.
    46. Karras, Georgios, 2009. "Demographic Change and the Current Account: Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 1-14.
    47. Leff, Nathaniel H, 1969. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 886-896, December.
    48. Khan, Habib Hussain & Ahmad, Rubi Binti & Gee, Chan Sok, 2016. "Bank competition and monetary policy transmission through the bank lending channel: Evidence from ASEAN," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 19-39.
    49. Fougere, Maxime & Mercenier, Jean & Merette, Marcel, 2007. "A sectoral and occupational analysis of population ageing in Canada using a dynamic CGE overlapping generations model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 690-711, July.
    50. Qian, Ningyu & Zhang, Kezhong & Zheng, Changjun & Ashraf, Badar Nadeem, 2019. "How do regulatory ability and bank competition affect the adoption of explicit deposit insurance scheme and banks’ risk-taking behavior?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 69-90.
    51. Soyoung Kim & Jong-Wha Lee, 2007. "Demographic Changes, Saving, and Current Account in East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 6(2), pages 22-53, Spring/Su.
    52. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    53. Liu, Yan & Zhao, Xueqing, 2023. "On the factors driving bank lending standards: Global evidence from bank lending surveys," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    54. repec:hal:journl:hal-04881054 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiang, Dequan & Lan, Meng & Li, Weiping & Shen, Yongjian, 2024. "Threat or opportunity? Unveiling the impact of population aging on corporate labor investment efficiency," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    2. Wang, Hua & Chen, Yaorui, 2024. "The impact of population aging on capital structure decisions and capital market efficiency: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    3. Yu Liu & Mingde Jia, 2023. "The Impact of Population Aging on Green Innovation: An Empirical Analysis Based on Inter-Provincial Data in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.
    4. Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2023. "Rising Longevity, Increasing the Retirement Age, and the Consequences for Knowledge‐based Long‐run Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(357), pages 39-64, January.
    5. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    6. Tan, Youchao & Liu, Xiumei & Sun, Hanwen & Zeng, Cheng(Colin), 2022. "Population ageing, labour market rigidity and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(2).
    7. Thomas Ziesemer & Anne von Gässler, 2021. "Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(2), pages 129-160, May.
    8. Saif-Alyousfi, Abdulazeez Y.H. & Saha, Asish & Md-Rus, Rohani, 2020. "The impact of bank competition and concentration on bank risk-taking behavior and stability: Evidence from GCC countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    9. Yingzhu Yang & Rong Zheng & Lexiang Zhao, 2021. "Population Aging, Health Investment and Economic Growth: Based on a Cross-Country Panel Data Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-16, February.
    10. Annarita Baldanzi & Klaus Prettner & Paul Tscheuschner, 2019. "Longevity-induced vertical innovation and the tradeoff between life and growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 1293-1313, October.
    11. Makoto Hirono, 2021. "Demographic change, human capital accumulation, and sectoral employment," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 132(2), pages 165-185, March.
    12. Emerson, Patrick & Knabb, Shawn & Sirbu, Anca-Ioana, 2024. "Does the old-age dependency ratio place a drag on secular growth?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1056-1070.
    13. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920, September.
    14. Belyakov, A.O. & Kurbatskiy, A.N. & Prettner, K., 2021. "The growth effects of anticipated versus unanticipated population aging," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    15. Marta Degl'Innocenti & Franco Fiordelisi & Claudia Girardone & Nemanja Radić, 2019. "Competition and risk‐taking in investment banking," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 241-260, May.
    16. Goh, Soo Khoon & McNown, Robert & Wong, Koi Nyen, 2020. "Macroeconomic implications of population aging: Evidence from Japan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    17. Wen-Hsin Huang & Yen-Ju Lin & Hsien-Feng Lee, 2019. "Impact of Population and Workforce Aging on Economic Growth: Case Study of Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-13, November.
    18. Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Longevity And Technological Change," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1503, June.
    19. Theodora Bermpei & Antonios Nikolaos Kalyvas & Leone Leonida, 2021. "Local Public Corruption and Bank Lending Activity in the United States," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 73-98, June.
    20. Sheng, Jichuan & Ding, Rui & Yang, Hongqiang, 2024. "Corporate green innovation in an aging population: Evidence from Chinese listed companies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:95:y:2024:i:c:s1059056024004222. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.