IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i22p6301-d285254.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of Population and Workforce Aging on Economic Growth: Case Study of Taiwan

Author

Listed:
  • Wen-Hsin Huang

    (Department of Accounting Information, National Taichung University of Science and Technology, Taichung 400-439, Taiwan)

  • Yen-Ju Lin

    (Department of Public Finance and Taxation, National Taichung University of Science and Technology, Taichung 400-439, Taiwan)

  • Hsien-Feng Lee

    (Department of Economics, National Taiwan University, Taipei 100-116, Taiwan)

Abstract

Taiwan’s population is aging at a fast pace, and its aged society is expected to transition into a hyper-aged society within eight years. Population aging has been a matter of international concern; however, there remain differing views about its economic impact. Thus, this study aims to examine the impact of population and workforce aging on Taiwan using quarterly data from 1981–2017. The empirical results demonstrate that an aging workforce has a significantly positive impact on the rate of economic growth. However, the old-age dependency ratio has a significantly negative effect on economic growth. The empirical findings indicate that human capital is essential for total factor productivity (TFP) growth and that workforce and population aging mainly impact productivity through TFP. Accounting for policy factors, increasing the supply of the eldercare workforce and foreign manpower contribute toward countering the negative impact of an aging population on national economic growth. Policies on retirement, pension systems, health care, and human capital accumulation that target the aged population are discussed, accompanied by policy suggestions.

Suggested Citation

  • Wen-Hsin Huang & Yen-Ju Lin & Hsien-Feng Lee, 2019. "Impact of Population and Workforce Aging on Economic Growth: Case Study of Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-13, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:22:p:6301-:d:285254
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/22/6301/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/22/6301/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klaus Prettner, 2013. "Population aging and endogenous economic growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 811-834, April.
    2. Felbermayr, Gabriel J. & Hiller, Sanne & Sala, Davide, 2010. "Does immigration boost per capita income?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 177-179, May.
    3. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    4. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    5. Ekrame Boubtane & Jean-Christophe Dumont & Christophe Rault, 2016. "Immigration and economic growth in the OECD countries 1986–2006," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 340-360.
    6. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Weiss, Matthias, 2016. "Productivity and age: Evidence from work teams at the assembly line," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 30-42.
    7. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2010. "Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, pages 61-89, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ms. Florence Jaumotte & Ksenia Koloskova & Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2016. "Impact of Migration on Income Levels in Advanced Economies," IMF Spillover Notes 2016/008, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Mariya Aleksynska & Ahmed Tritah, 2015. "The Heterogeneity Of Immigrants, Host Countries' Income And Productivity: A Channel Accounting Approach," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(1), pages 150-172, January.
    10. Areendam Chanda & Bibhudutta Panda, 2016. "Productivity Growth In Goods And Services Across The Heterogeneous States Of America," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(2), pages 1021-1045, April.
    11. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    12. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2023. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 306-332, April.
    13. Vogel, Edgar & Ludwig, Alexander & Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2017. "Aging and pension reform: extending the retirement age and human capital formation," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 81-107, January.
    14. SHIMASAWA Manabu & HOSOYAMA Hidetoshi, 2004. "Economic Implications Of An Aging Population: The Case Of Five Asian Economies," ESRI Discussion paper series 117, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    15. Yunus Aksoy & Henrique S. Basso & Ron P. Smith & Tobias Grasl, 2019. "Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 193-222, January.
    16. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason, 2010. "Fertility, Human Capital, and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition [Fécondité, capital humain et croissance économique au cours de la transition démographique]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 159-182, May.
    17. Thomas Lindh & Bo Malmberg, 1999. "Age structure effects and growth in the OECD, 1950-1990," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(3), pages 431-449.
    18. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 1994. "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-173, October.
    19. Gary Burtless, 2013. "The Impact of Population Aging and Delayed Retirement on Workforce Productivity," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2013-11, Center for Retirement Research.
    20. George J. Borjas, 2019. "Immigration and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 25836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2016. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity," NBER Working Papers 22452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Weng-Tat Hui & Aamir Rafique Hashmi, 2007. "Foreign Labor And Economic Growth Policy Options For Singapore," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 52(01), pages 53-72.
    23. Mr. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 2006/009, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Bibhudutta Panda, 2017. "Schooling and productivity growth: evidence from a dual growth accounting application to U.S. states," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 193-221, December.
    25. Mr. Shekhar Aiyar & Mr. Christian H Ebeke, 2016. "The Impact of Workforce Aging on European Productivity," IMF Working Papers 2016/238, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Miao Zhang & Shibing You & Li Zhang & Houli Zhang & Yukun Wang, 2023. "Dynamic Analysis of the Effects of Aging on China’s Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-16, March.
    2. Chu, Chin-Peng & Yeh, Kuo-Chun, 2021. "Demographic Transition for Economic Development in Taipei,China: Literature and Policy Implications," ADBI Working Papers 1222, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    3. Huang, Yi-Hou & Liang, Woan-lih & Truong, Quang-Thai & Wang, Yanzhi, 2022. "No new tricks for old dogs? Old directors and innovation performance," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    4. Chen, Chien-Hsun, 2023. "Taiwan’s Rapidly Aging Population: A Crisis in the Making?," MPRA Paper 116543, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Loi Tan Nguyen & Phouthakannha Nantharath & Eungoo Kang, 2022. "The Sustainable Care Model for an Ageing Population in Vietnam: Evidence from a Systematic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-17, February.
    6. Tzen-Ying Ling & Hsien-Tsung Lu & Yen-Pin Kao & Szu-Cheng Chien & Hung-Chou Chen & Li-Fong Lin, 2023. "Understanding the Meaningful Places for Aging-in-Place: A Human-Centric Approach toward Inter-Domain Design Criteria Consideration in Taiwan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-21, January.
    7. Goh, Soo Khoon & Wong, Koi Nyen & McNown, Robert & Chen, Li-Ju, 2023. "Long-run macroeconomic consequences of Taiwan's aging labor force: an analysis of policy options," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 121-138.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cylus, Jonathan & Al Tayara, Lynn, 2021. "Health, an ageing labour force, and the economy: Does health moderate the relationship between population age-structure and economic growth?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    2. Rainer Kotschy & Uwe Sunde & Tommaso MonacelliManaging Editor, 2018. "Can education compensate the effect of population ageing on macroeconomic performance?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 33(96), pages 587-634.
    3. Cylus, Jonathan & Al Tayara, Lynn, 2021. "Health, an ageing labour force, and the economy: does health moderate the relationship between population age-structure and economic growth?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112421, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Kim, Hoolda & Song Lee, Bun, 2023. "Aging workforce, wages, and productivity: Do older workers drag productivity down in Korea?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    5. Kotschy, Rainer & Sunde, Uwe, 2016. "Skills, Aging, and Productivity: Evidence from Panel Data," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145895, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Emerson, Patrick & Knabb, Shawn & Sirbu, Anca-Ioana, 2024. "Does the old-age dependency ratio place a drag on secular growth?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1056-1070.
    7. Lee, Jong-Wha & Song, Eunbi & Kwak, Do Won, 2020. "Aging labor, ICT capital, and productivity in Japan and Korea," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    8. Miao Zhang & Shibing You & Li Zhang & Houli Zhang & Yukun Wang, 2023. "Dynamic Analysis of the Effects of Aging on China’s Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-16, March.
    9. Bosede Ngozi Adeleye & Ismail Bengana & Abdelaziz Boukhelkhal & Mohammad Musa Shafiq & Hauwah K. K. Abdulkareem, 2022. "Does Human Capital Tilt the Population-Economic Growth Dynamics? Evidence from Middle East and North African Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 863-883, July.
    10. Iñigo Calvo-Sotomayor & Jon Paul Laka & Ricardo Aguado, 2019. "Workforce Ageing and Labour Productivity in Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-16, October.
    11. Taehwan Rhee & Jacob Wood & Jungsuk Kim, 2022. "Digital Transformation as a Demographic and Economic Integrated Policy for Southeast Asian Developing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-19, March.
    12. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson, 2014. "Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 299-315, February.
    13. Davis, Colin & Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Tabata, Ken, 2022. "Demographic structure, knowledge diffusion, and endogenous productivity growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    14. Iñigo Calvo-Sotomayor & Ekhi Atutxa & Ricardo Aguado, 2020. "Who Is Afraid of Population Aging? Myths, Challenges and an Open Question from the Civil Economy Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-17, July.
    15. Park, Cyn-Young & Shin, Kwanho & Kikkawa, Aiko, 2021. "Aging, automation, and productivity in Korea1," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    16. Katarzyna Maj-Waśniowska & Tomasz Jedynak, 2020. "The Issues and Challenges of Local Government Units in the Era of Population Ageing," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, June.
    17. Munir Ahmad & Rana Ejaz Ali Khan, 2019. "Does Demographic Transition with Human Capital Dynamics Matter for Economic Growth? A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to GMM," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 142(2), pages 753-772, April.
    18. Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Longevity And Technological Change," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1503, June.
    19. Prettner, Klaus & Bloom, David E. & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "Declining fertility and economic well-being: Do education and health ride to the rescue?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 70-79.
    20. Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan & Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Khanam, Rasheda, 2020. "The relation between an ageing population and economic growth in Bangladesh: Evidence from an endogenous growth model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 14-25.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:22:p:6301-:d:285254. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.