IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/joecag/v8y2016icp19-27.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decomposing economic gains from population age structure transition in the Philippines

Author

Listed:
  • Abrigo, Michael R.M.
  • Racelis, Rachel H.
  • Salas, J.M. Ian
  • Herrin, Alejandro N.

Abstract

The secular decline in fertility throughout the world has provided countries with demographic dividends from population age structures that are increasingly concentrated towards productive ages. However, it is widely recognized that realizing the demographic dividend is policy dependent. In this paper, we document how economic conditions are able to either negate or amplify the gains from demographic dividends by looking at the case of the Philippines in separate periods of boom and bust. Recent evidence suggests that the Philippines has been benefitting from a favorable population age structure transition. It is expected, however, that the experience is not uniform among different population groups in the country. Some population groups are farther along in the demographic transition while others lag behind given the documented differentials in their fertility levels. Additionally, different groups could have different economic lifecycle schedules. We analyze how different population groups contributed to the overall economic growth experienced by the Philippines over different economic conditions in the past two decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Abrigo, Michael R.M. & Racelis, Rachel H. & Salas, J.M. Ian & Herrin, Alejandro N., 2016. "Decomposing economic gains from population age structure transition in the Philippines," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 19-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecag:v:8:y:2016:i:c:p:19-27
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2016.09.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212828X15300244
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeoa.2016.09.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    2. Aniceto C. Orbeta, 2006. "Poverty, Vulnerability and Family Size: Evidence from the Philippines," Chapters, in: John Weiss & Haider A. Khan (ed.), Poverty Strategies in Asia, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Bruce D. Meyer & James X. Sullivan, 2003. "Measuring the Well-Being of the Poor Using Income and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 9760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Angus Deaton & Christina Paxson, 1997. "The effects of economic and population growth on national saving and inequality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 34(1), pages 97-114, February.
    5. Herrin, Alejandro N. & Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Racelis, Rachel H., 2015. "Philippines 2011 National Transfer Accounts Estimates of Consumption and Labor Income Age Profiles: Discussions on the 1991-2011 Age Profile Change and Implications on Economic Gains from the First De," Discussion Papers DP 2015-45, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    6. Martin Bell & Salut Muhidin, 2009. "Cross-National Comparisons of Internal Migration," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2009-30, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), revised Jul 2009.
    7. John Weiss & Haider A. Khan (ed.), 2006. "Poverty Strategies in Asia," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 4247.
    8. Racelis, Rachel H. & Abrigo, Michael R.M. & Salas, J.M. Ian, 2015. "Financing consumption over the lifecycle and overseas workers’ remittances: Findings from the 1999 and 2007 Philippine National Transfer Accounts," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 69-78.
    9. Cororaton, Caesar B., 2002. "Total Factor Productivity in the Philippines," Discussion Papers DP 2002-01, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    10. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson, 2014. "Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 299-315, February.
    11. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), 2011. "Population Aging and the Generational Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13816.
    12. David de la Croix & Matthias Doepke, 2003. "Inequality and Growth: Why Differential Fertility Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1091-1113, September.
    13. Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee, 2011. "Population aging and the generational economy: key findings," Chapters, in: Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), Population Aging and the Generational Economy, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Racelis, Rachel H. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Herrin, Alejandro N., 2015. "Philippines 2011 National Transfer Accounts Estimates of Consumption and Labor Income Age Profiles: Discussions on the 1991-2011 Age Profile Change and Implications on Economic Gains from the First De," Research Paper Series DP 2015-45, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    15. Alexia Prskawetz & Jože Sambt, 2014. "Economic support ratios and the demographic dividend in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(34), pages 963-1010.
    16. Rachel H. Racelis & J. M. Ian Salas, 2011. "Changes in patterns of Philippine lifecycle consumption and labor income between 1994 and 2002," Chapters, in: Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), Population Aging and the Generational Economy, chapter 18, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Arturo Martinez Jr. & Mark Western & Michele Haynes & Wojtek Tomaszewski, 2014. "Is there income mobility in the Philippines?," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 28(1), pages 96-115, May.
    18. Robert L. Clark & Naohiro Ogawa & Andrew Mason (ed.), 2007. "Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12608.
    19. Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee, 2007. "Transfers, Capital and Consumption Over the Demographic Transition," Chapters, in: Robert L. Clark & Naohiro Ogawa & Andrew Mason (ed.), Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Arsenio M. Balisacan, 2001. "Poverty in the Philippines : An Update and Reexamination," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 38(1), pages 15-52, June.
    21. Mejía-Guevara, Iván, 2015. "Economic inequality and intergenerational transfers: Evidence from Mexico," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 23-32.
    22. Joshua Angrist & Victor Lavy & Analia Schlosser, 2010. "Multiple Experiments for the Causal Link between the Quantity and Quality of Children," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(4), pages 773-824, October.
    23. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason, 2010. "Fertility, Human Capital, and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition [Fécondité, capital humain et croissance économique au cours de la transition démographique]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 159-182, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chung, Yessica C.Y. & Lee, Tsung-Chen, 2020. "Tele-connecting urban food consumption to land use at multiple spatial scales: A case study of beef in Taiwan," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lee, R., 2016. "Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 59-118, Elsevier.
    2. Chomik, Rafal & McDonald, Peter & Piggott, John, 2016. "Population ageing in Asia and the Pacific: Dependency metrics for policy," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 5-18.
    3. Prettner, Klaus & Bloom, David E. & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "Declining fertility and economic well-being: Do education and health ride to the rescue?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 70-79.
    4. Cheick Kader M’baye, 2023. "Fertility, employment, and the demographic dividend in sub-Saharan African countries with incipient demographic transition: evidence from Mali," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 1-15, June.
    5. Ha, Joonkyung & Lee, Sang-Hyop, 2016. "Demographic dividend and Asia’s economic convergence towards the US," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 28-41.
    6. Alexia Prskawetz & Bernhard Hammer, 2018. "Does education matter? – economic dependency ratios by education," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 111-134.
    7. Oosthuizen, Morné J., 2015. "Bonus or mirage? South Africa’s demographic dividend," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 14-22.
    8. Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee & members of the NTA Network, 2022. "Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(1), pages 51-73, March.
    9. Mason, Andrew & Lee, Ronald, 2013. "Labor and consumption across the lifecycle," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 1, pages 16-27.
    10. Gilles Dufrénot, 2018. "The third demographic dividend: measuring the “demographic tax” in the Arab Countries in Transition," Working Papers 2018-15, CEPII research center.
    11. Sang-Hyop Lee & Jungsuk Kim & Donghyun Park, 2017. "Demographic Change and Fiscal Sustainability in Asia," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 287-322, October.
    12. Hippolyte d’ALBIS & Dalal MOOSA, 2015. "Generational Economics and the National Transfer Accounts," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(4), pages 409-441, December.
    13. Morne Oosthuizen, 2018. "Counting Women’s Work in South Africa: Incorporating Unpaid Work into Estimates of the Economic Lifecycle in 2010," Working Papers cwwwp8, University of Cape Town, Development Policy Research Unit.
    14. Amarante, Verónica & Bucheli, Marisa & Colacce, Maira & Nathan, Mathias, 2021. "Aging, education and intergenerational flows in Uruguay," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    15. Prettner, Klaus & Trimborn, Timo, 2012. "Demographic change and R&D-based economic growth: Reconciling theory and evidence," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 139, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    16. Tran, Quang-Thanh, 2022. "The aging tax on potential growth in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    17. Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2015. "Population Structure and Consumption Growth: Evidence from National Transfer Accounts," VID Working Papers 1503, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    18. Bairoliya, Neha & Miller, Ray, 2021. "Demographic transition, human capital and economic growth in China," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    19. Hanzhi Hu, 2023. "The Consequences of Fertility Decline on Educational Attainment in China," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(6), pages 1-30, December.
    20. Harkat, Tahar & Driouchi, Ahmed, 2017. "Demographic Dividend & Economic Development in Arab Countries," MPRA Paper 82880, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    National Transfer Accounts; Demographic dividend; Economic lifecycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:joecag:v:8:y:2016:i:c:p:19-27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/the-journal-of-the-economics-of-ageing .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.