IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v87y2020icp280-306.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A dynamic CGE model for jointly accounting ageing population, automation and environmental tax reform. European Union as a case study

Author

Listed:
  • Costantini, Valeria
  • Sforna, Giorgia

Abstract

We develop a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model based on the combination of different versions of GTAP utilities where alternative scenarios on ageing population trends are combined with projections on the incidence of automation into production processes and the adoption of unilateral decarbonisation policies. By simultaneously controlling for these different challenges that especially developed countries should face in the next decades, it is possible to disentangle non-linear mechanisms that will influence sustainability of public budget when the three issues are jointly combined. The European Union is taken as a case study. The first result is that ageing trends will impact fiscal sustainability reducing the EU capacity to respect the Stability and Growth Pact parameters. Second, when also considering technical change related to automation and robotics in the production process, fiscal sustainability will improve only in the case of input-neutral technological change. On the contrary, if biased technical change produces unemployment impact, negative impacts of ageing population are reinforced by automation. Third, the adoption of an environmental tax, here modelled in the form of a carbon price, leads to an improvement in environmental sustainability but has non-linear effects of fiscal sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Costantini, Valeria & Sforna, Giorgia, 2020. "A dynamic CGE model for jointly accounting ageing population, automation and environmental tax reform. European Union as a case study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 280-306.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:87:y:2020:i:c:p:280-306
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.08.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999319304006
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.08.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chappuis, Thomas & Terrie Walmsley, 2011. "Projections for World CGE Model Baselines," GTAP Research Memoranda 3728, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    2. Tosun, Mehmet Serkan, 2003. "Population aging and economic growth: political economy and open economy effects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 291-296, December.
    3. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    4. Jäger, Philipp & Schmidt, Torsten, 2016. "The political economy of public investment when population is aging: A panel cointegration analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 145-158.
    5. Christoph Böhringer & Jared C. Carbone & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2012. "Efficiency and Equity Implications of Alternative Instruments to Reduce Carbon Leakage," Working Papers V-346-12, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2012.
    6. Melanie Arntz & Terry Gregory & Ulrich Zierahn, 2016. "The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 189, OECD Publishing.
    7. Birgit Aigner-Walder & Thomas Döring, 2012. "The Effects of Population Ageing on Private Consumption — A Simulation for Austria Based on Household Data up to 2050," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 2(1), pages 63-80, June.
    8. Golub, Alla, 2013. "Analysis of Climate Policies with GDyn-E," Technical Papers 283431, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Emma Aguila, 2011. "Personal Retirement Accounts and Saving," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 1-24, November.
    10. Heinrich Hock & David Weil, 2012. "On the dynamics of the age structure, dependency, and consumption," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 1019-1043, July.
    11. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka & Phillip Swagel, 2002. "The Aging Population and the Size of the Welfare State," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 900-918, August.
    12. Bloom, David E. & Börsch-Supan, Axel & McGee, Patrick & Seike, Atsushi, 1970. "Population Aging: Facts, Challenges, and Responses," MEA discussion paper series 201224, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    13. Ulrich Doraszelski & Jordi Jaumandreu, 2018. "Measuring the Bias of Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 1027-1084.
    14. Corradini, Massimiliano & Costantini, Valeria & Markandya, Anil & Paglialunga, Elena & Sforna, Giorgia, 2018. "A dynamic assessment of instrument interaction and timing alternatives in the EU low-carbon policy mix design," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 73-84.
    15. James M. Poterba, 1997. "Demographic structure and the political economy of public education," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 48-66.
    16. Jeffrey C Peters, 2016. "The GTAP-Power Data Base: Disaggregating the Electricity Sector in the GTAP Data Base," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(1), pages 209-250, June.
    17. Roel Beetsma & Heikki Oksanen, 2007. "Pension Systems, Ageing and the Stability and Growth Pact," CESifo Working Paper Series 2141, CESifo.
    18. Frey, Carl Benedikt & Osborne, Michael A., 2017. "The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 254-280.
    19. repec:iza:izawol:journl:y:2015:p:5 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Hougaard Jensen, Svend E. & Sveinsson, Thorsteinn Sigurdur & Vieira, Filipe, 2019. "Sustainable fiscal strategies under changing demographics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 34-52.
    21. Miroslav Verbič & Rok Spruk, 2014. "Aging Population and Public Pensions: Theory and Macroeconometric Evidence," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(3), pages 289-316, June.
    22. Rui Mao & Jianwei Xu, 2014. "Consumption Structure Evolutions in an Aging Society and Implications for the Social Security System," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 10(2), pages 349-370, August.
    23. Gonand, Frédéric & Jouvet, Pierre-André, 2015. "The “second dividend” and the demographic structure," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 71-97.
    24. Jørgen Elmeskov, 2004. "Aging, Public Budgets, and the Need for Policy Reform," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 233-242, May.
    25. Sarah Harper, 2013. "Population–Environment Interactions: European Migration, Population Composition and Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(4), pages 525-541, August.
    26. Disney, Richard, 2007. "Population ageing and the size of the welfare state: Is there a puzzle to explain?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 542-553, June.
    27. Bardazzi, Rossella & Pazienza, Maria Grazia, 2017. "Switch off the light, please! Energy use, aging population and consumption habits," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 161-171.
    28. Böhringer, Christoph & Carbone, Jared C. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2012. "Unilateral climate policy design: Efficiency and equity implications of alternative instruments to reduce carbon leakage," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S2), pages 208-217.
    29. Richard Freeman, 2015. "Who owns the robots rules the world," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-5, May.
    30. Narciso, Alexandre, 2010. "The impact of population ageing on international capital flows," MPRA Paper 26457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Pearce, David W, 1991. "The Role of Carbon Taxes in Adjusting to Global Warming," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 938-948, July.
    32. Ekins, Paul & Pollitt, Hector & Barton, Jennifer & Blobel, Daniel, 2011. "The implications for households of environmental tax reform (ETR) in Europe," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(12), pages 2472-2485.
    33. Markandya, A. & Antimiani, A. & Costantini, V. & Martini, C. & Palma, A. & Tommasino, M.C., 2015. "Analyzing Trade-offs in International Climate Policy Options: The Case of the Green Climate Fund," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 93-107.
    34. Peter Zweifel & Lukas Steinmann & Patrick Eugster, 2005. "The Sisyphus Syndrome in Health Revisited," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 127-145, June.
    35. Friedrich Breyer & Joan Costa-Font & Stefan Felder, 2010. "Ageing, health, and health care," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 674-690, Winter.
    36. Misbah Aslam & Eatzaz Ahmad, 2018. "Impact of Ageing and Generational Effects on Household Energy Consumption Behavior: Evidence from Pakistan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-20, August.
    37. Antimiani, Alessandro & Costantini, Valeria & Martini, Chiara & Salvatici, Luca & Tommasino, Maria Cristina, 2013. "Assessing alternative solutions to carbon leakage," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 299-311.
    38. Elgin, Ceyhun & Tumen, Semih, 2012. "Can sustained economic growth and declining population coexist?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1899-1908.
    39. Stefan Speck, 2017. "Environmental tax reform and the potential implications of tax base erosions in the context of emission reduction targets and demographic change," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(3), pages 407-423, December.
    40. Lisenkova, Katerina & Mérette, Marcel & Wright, Robert, 2013. "Population ageing and the labour market: Modelling size and age-specific effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 981-989.
    41. Antimiani, Alessandro & Costantini, Valeria & Kuik, Onno & Paglialunga, Elena, 2016. "Mitigation of adverse effects on competitiveness and leakage of unilateral EU climate policy: An assessment of policy instruments," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 246-259.
    42. Harris, Amy Rehder & Evans, William N. & Schwab, Robert M., 2001. "Education spending in an aging America," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 449-472, September.
    43. Willis, Ken & Scarpa, Riccardo & Gilroy, Rose & Hamza, Neveen, 2011. "Renewable energy adoption in an ageing population: Heterogeneity in preferences for micro-generation technology adoption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6021-6029, October.
    44. Sanz, Ismael & Velazquez, Francisco J., 2007. "The role of ageing in the growth of government and social welfare spending in the OECD," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 917-931, December.
    45. John Bongaarts, 2004. "Population Aging and the Rising Cost of Public Pensions," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(1), pages 1-23, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pothen, Frank & Hübler, Michael, 2021. "A forward calibration method for analyzing energy policy in new quantitative trade models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    2. Anita Fajczak-Kowalska & Anna Misztal & Magdalena Kowalska, 2021. "Energy, Pollution, and Transport Taxes as Instruments of Sustainable Development of Manufacturing Enterprises in Emerging Economies in the European Union," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2B), pages 724-742.
    3. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    4. Astrida Miceikienė & Kristina Gesevičienė & Daiva Rimkuvienė, 2021. "Assessment of the Dependence of GHG Emissions on the Support and Taxes in the EU Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-15, July.
    5. Tobias Mueller & Steven Gronau, 2023. "Fostering Macroeconomic Research on Hydrogen-Powered Aviation: A Systematic Literature Review on General Equilibrium Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-33, February.
    6. Júlio Vicente Cateia & Maurício Vaz Lobo Bittencourt & Terciane Sabadini Carvalho & Luc Savard, 2023. "Funding schemes for infrastructure investment and poverty alleviation in Africa: Evidence from Guinea‐Bissau," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1505-1529, August.
    7. Julio Vicente Cateia & Luc Savard, 2025. "Trade and distribution in Guinea-Bissau: A computable general equilibrium analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-30, February.
    8. Fereira, Semertesides Bitica & Cateia, Júlio Vicente, 2023. "Trade reform, infrastructure investment, and structural transformation in Africa: Evidence from Guinea-Bissau," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    9. Li, Jiaman & Liu, Guixian & Dong, Jiajia, 2024. "Coordinated reduction effect of pollutant discharge fees on enterprises' pollutant and carbon emissions in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    10. Norouzi, Nima & Fani, Maryam & Talebi, Saeed, 2022. "Green tax as a path to greener economy: A game theory approach on energy and final goods in Iran," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    11. Jia, Zhijie & Lin, Boqiang & Liu, Xiying, 2023. "Rethinking the equity and efficiency of carbon tax: A novel perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).
    12. Wu, Qunli & Ma, Zhe & Meng, Fanxing, 2022. "Long-term impacts of carbon allowance allocation in China: An IC-DCGE model optimized by the hypothesis of imperfectly competitive market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    13. Zhang, Qingyong & Mao, Xianqiang & Lu, Jianhong & Guo, Zhi & Duman, Zaenhaer & Chen, Yongpeng & Song, Peng & Tu, Kevin, 2024. "EU-Russia energy decoupling in combination with the updated NDCs impacts on global fossil energy trade and carbon emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thach Ngoc Pham & Duc Hong Vo, 2021. "Aging Population and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Quantile Regression Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 108-122, January.
    2. Georges Casamatta & L. Batté, 2016. "The Political Economy of Population Aging," Post-Print hal-02520521, HAL.
    3. Casamatta, G. & Batté, L., 2016. "The Political Economy of Population Aging," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 381-444, Elsevier.
    4. Antimiani, Alessandro & Costantini, Valeria & Kuik, Onno & Paglialunga, Elena, 2016. "Mitigation of adverse effects on competitiveness and leakage of unilateral EU climate policy: An assessment of policy instruments," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 246-259.
    5. Zaiceva, A. & Zimmermann, K.F., 2016. "Migration and the Demographic Shift," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 119-177, Elsevier.
    6. Massimiliano Corradini & Valeria Costantini & Anil Markandya & Elena Paglialunga & Giorgia Sforna, 2018. "Some reflections on policy mix in the EU low-carbon strategy," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0236, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    7. Sørensen, Rune J., 2013. "Does aging affect preferences for welfare spending? A study of peoples' spending preferences in 22 countries, 1985–2006," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 259-271.
    8. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of an ageing population on economic growth: an exploratory review of the main mechanisms," FEP Working Papers 504, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    9. Corradini, Massimiliano & Costantini, Valeria & Markandya, Anil & Paglialunga, Elena & Sforna, Giorgia, 2018. "A dynamic assessment of instrument interaction and timing alternatives in the EU low-carbon policy mix design," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 73-84.
    10. Katarzyna Maj-Waśniowska & Tomasz Jedynak, 2020. "The Issues and Challenges of Local Government Units in the Era of Population Ageing," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, June.
    11. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Peiyao Liu & Shu-Chin Lin, 2024. "The moderating role of financial development in the nexus between population aging and saving," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1-32, April.
    12. Margaret Antonicelli & Michele Rubino & Filomena Maggino, 2023. "Demographic and Economic Determinants of Digitalization in Healthcare: An Exploratory Analysis of the Italian Local Health Centers," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 529-552, September.
    13. Tetsuo Ono, 2015. "Public education and social security: a political economy approach," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-25, February.
    14. Ardanaz, Martín & Izquierdo, Alejandro, 2017. "Current Expenditure Upswings in Good Times and Capital Expenditure Downswings in Bad Times?: New Evidence from Developing Countries," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8558, Inter-American Development Bank.
    15. Sang-Hyop Lee & Jungsuk Kim & Donghyun Park, 2017. "Demographic Change and Fiscal Sustainability in Asia," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 287-322, October.
    16. Gianko Michailidis & Concepció Patxot & Meritxell Solé, 2019. "Do pensions foster education? An empirical perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(38), pages 4127-4150, August.
    17. Ben Brewer & Karen Smith Conway & Jonathan C. Rork, 2022. "Do income tax breaks for the elderly affect economic growth?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 7-27, January.
    18. Branger, Frédéric & Quirion, Philippe, 2014. "Would border carbon adjustments prevent carbon leakage and heavy industry competitiveness losses? Insights from a meta-analysis of recent economic studies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 29-39.
    19. Perdana, Sigit & Vielle, Marc, 2022. "Making the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism acceptable and climate friendly for least developed countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    20. Pan, Wenqi & Kim, Man-Keun & Ning, Zhuo & Yang, Hongqiang, 2020. "Carbon leakage in energy/forest sectors and climate policy implications using meta-analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ageing population; Automation; Factor productivity; Welfare expenditures; European Union; Fiscal sustainability; Environmental tax reform;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:87:y:2020:i:c:p:280-306. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.