IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/ecopln/v55y2022i3d10.1007_s10644-021-09370-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The role of older workers in population aging–economic growth nexus: evidence from developing countries

Author

Listed:
  • Siow Li Lai

    (University of Malaya)

  • Tien Ming Yip

    (University of Malaya)

Abstract

This study explored the relationship between population aging and economic growth in 74 developing countries between 1990 and 2019, highlighting the vital role of older workers (as measured by labor force participation of older people) in the national economy. A static panel estimator was used to examine the relationship between population aging, labor force participation of older people and economic growth. Results showed a negative association between population aging and economic growth, but the inverse relationship was mitigated by the labor force participation of older people. This indicates that the marginal impact of population aging on economic growth depends on the labor force participation of older people. The mitigating role of labor force participation of older people remained robust in a series of robustness checks. This study provides some policy recommendations to raise the labor force participation of older people to reduce the negative impact of population aging on economic growth. Effective utilization of human resources of older people is essential to bring about sustainable economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Siow Li Lai & Tien Ming Yip, 2022. "The role of older workers in population aging–economic growth nexus: evidence from developing countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1875-1912, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:55:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10644-021-09370-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10644-021-09370-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10644-021-09370-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10644-021-09370-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Topcu, Ebru & Altinoz, Buket & Aslan, Alper, 2020. "Global evidence from the link between economic growth, natural resources, energy consumption, and gross capital formation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    3. Claude Diebolt & Ralph Hippe, 2019. "The long-run impact of human capital on innovation and economic development in the regions of Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(5), pages 542-563, January.
    4. David E. Bloom & Dara Lee Luca, 2016. "The Global Demography of Aging: Facts, Explanations, Future," PGDA Working Papers 13016, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    5. Birgit Aigner-Walder & Thomas Döring, 2012. "The Effects of Population Ageing on Private Consumption — A Simulation for Austria Based on Household Data up to 2050," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 2(1), pages 63-80, June.
    6. Azman-Saini, W.N.W. & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Law, Siong Hook, 2010. "Foreign direct investment, economic freedom and economic growth: International evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1079-1089, September.
    7. Vogel, Edgar & Ludwig, Alexander & Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2017. "Aging and pension reform: extending the retirement age and human capital formation," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 81-107, January.
    8. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Demographic changes, labor effort and economic growth: empirical evidence from Greece," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 169-188, February.
    9. Mansor H. IBRAHIM, 2007. "The Yen‐Dollar Exchange Rate And Malaysian Macroeconomic Dynamics," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 45(3), pages 315-338, September.
    10. Law, Siong Hook & Kutan, Ali M. & Naseem, N.A.M., 2018. "The role of institutions in finance curse: Evidence from international data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 174-191.
    11. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    12. Ibrahim, Mansor H. & Salim, Kinan & Abojeib, Moutaz & Yeap, Lau Wee, 2019. "Structural changes, competition and bank stability in Malaysia’s dual banking system," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 111-129.
    13. Thach Ngoc Pham & Duc Hong Vo, 2021. "Aging Population and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Quantile Regression Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 108-122, January.
    14. Lei He & Na Li, 2020. "The linkages between life expectancy and economic growth: some new evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2381-2402, May.
    15. N. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A. C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2021. "Ageing Population: Identifying the Determinants of Ageing in the Least Developed Countries," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(2), pages 187-210, April.
    16. Mansor H. Ibrahim & Siong Hook Law, 2019. "Financial Intermediation Costs In A Dual Banking System: The Role Of Islamic Banking," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 531-552, December.
    17. Law, Siong Hook & Singh, Nirvikar, 2014. "Does too much finance harm economic growth?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 36-44.
    18. Donatella Saccone, 2017. "Economic growth in emerging economies: what, who and why," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(11), pages 800-803, June.
    19. Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "Impact of population aging on Asia’s future growth," Chapters, in: Donghyun Park & Sang-Hyop Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), Aging, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Security in Asia, chapter 3, pages 83-110, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Chia, Yee-Ee & Lim, Kian-Ping & Goh, Kim-Leng, 2020. "Liquidity and firm value in an emerging market: Nonlinearity, political connections and corporate ownership," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    21. Brambor, Thomas & Clark, William Roberts & Golder, Matt, 2006. "Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 63-82, January.
    22. Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan & Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Khanam, Rasheda, 2020. "The relation between an ageing population and economic growth in Bangladesh: Evidence from an endogenous growth model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 14-25.
    23. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    24. Lisenkova, Katerina & Mérette, Marcel & Wright, Robert, 2013. "Population ageing and the labour market: Modelling size and age-specific effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 981-989.
    25. Law, Siong Hook & Azman-Saini, W.N.W. & Ibrahim, Mansor H., 2013. "Institutional quality thresholds and the finance – Growth nexus," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5373-5381.
    26. Aqil Khan & Mumtaz Ahmed & Salma Bibi, 2019. "Financial development and economic growth nexus for Pakistan: a revisit using maximum entropy bootstrap approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1157-1169, October.
    27. Keisuke Otsu & Katsuyuki Shibayama, 2016. "Population Aging and Potential Growth in Asia," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(2), pages 56-73, September.
    28. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    29. Rowland, Donald T., 2003. "Demographic Methods and Concepts," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198752639.
    30. Rabail Amna Intisar & Muhammad Rizwan Yaseen & Rakhshanda Kousar & Muhammad Usman & Muhammad Sohail Amjad Makhdum, 2020. "Impact of Trade Openness and Human Capital on Economic Growth: A Comparative Investigation of Asian Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-19, April.
    31. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Osathanunkul, Rossarin & Dumrong, Pasinee & Yamaka, Woraphon & Maneejuk, Paravee, 2023. "The nonlinear impacts of aging labor and government health expenditures on productivity in ASEAN+3 economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 450-470.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Law, Siong Hook & Kutan, Ali M. & Naseem, N.A.M., 2018. "The role of institutions in finance curse: Evidence from international data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 174-191.
    2. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Yi-Chen Wu & Shu-Chin Lin, 2022. "Carbon dioxide emissions, financial development and political institutions," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 837-874, May.
    3. Dombi, Ákos & Grigoriadis, Theocharis, 2020. "State history and the finance-growth nexus: Evidence from transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).
    4. Mansor H. Ibrahim, 2018. "Trade–finance complementarity and carbon emission intensity: panel evidence from middle-income countries," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 489-500, December.
    5. Mateo Zokalj, 2016. "The impact of population aging on public finance in the European Union," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 40(4), pages 383-412.
    6. Nasreen, Samia & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Abbas, Qaisar, 2020. "How do financial globalization, institutions and economic growth impact financial sector development in European countries?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Arshad Ali Bhatti & M. Emranul Haque & Denise R. Osborn, 2013. "Is the Growth Effect of Financial Development Conditional on Technological Innovation?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 188, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    8. Jeroen Klomp, 2020. "Subsidizing power," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(3), pages 300-321, July.
    9. Thiago Christiano Silva & Iftekhar Hasan & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2021. "Financing choice and local economic growth: evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 329-357, September.
    10. Milan Bednař, 2019. "Political Budget Cycles in the European Union: New Evidence of Fragmentation," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 69(4), pages 523-547, December.
    11. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Prettner, Klaus, 2023. "Automation and population growth: Theory and cross-country evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 345-358.
    12. Johanna Vogel, 2015. "The two faces of R&D and human capital: Evidence from Western European regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(3), pages 525-551, August.
    13. Ofori, Isaac K. & Figari, Francesco, 2022. "Economic Globalisation and Inclusive Green Growth in Africa: Contingencies and Policy-Relevant Thresholds of Governance," MPRA Paper 114377, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Kim, Dong-Hyeon & Wu, Yi-Chen & Lin, Shu-Chin, 2020. "Carbon dioxide emissions and the finance curse," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    15. Šeho, Mirzet & Ibrahim, Mansor H. & Mirakhor, Abbas, 2021. "Does sectoral diversification of loans and financing improve bank returns and risk in dual-banking systems?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    16. Gründler, Klaus, 2015. "The vanishing effect of finance on growth," Discussion Paper Series 133, Julius Maximilian University of Würzburg, Chair of Economic Order and Social Policy.
    17. Braunfels, Elias, 2014. "How do Political and Economic Institutions Affect Each Other?," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 19/2014, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    18. Ana Lucia Abeliansky & Klaus Prettner, 2021. "Population growth and automation density: theory and cross-country evidence," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp315, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    19. Lamar Crombach & Frank Bohn, 2024. "Uninformed voters with (im)precise expectations: Explaining political budget cycle puzzles," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 275-311, March.
    20. Chu, Lan Khanh & Chu, Hung Viet, 2020. "Is too much liquidity harmful to economic growth?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 230-242.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population aging; Economic growth; Labor force participation of older people; Developing countries; Static panel estimator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:55:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10644-021-09370-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.