IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v77y2015i1p51-63.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evidence of self-organization in Sumatra earthquakes: recurrence time and its geodynamical implications

Author

Listed:
  • R. Tiwari
  • P. Krishnaveni

Abstract

Inter-event time series of seismic activities of Sumatra region with magnitude (m b ≥ 4.8) and period spanning over 1973–2012 has been analyzed using the techniques of nonlinear dynamics. The earthquake data were collected from the USGS Web catalog. The rank order statistics of inter-event time series reveal mixed response with distinct breaks in slope suggesting that earthquake dynamics in this region are unstable, but “self-organized.” Comparison of return maps of the data with random, stochastic, and chaotic time records shows quasi-deterministic behavior. We assessed the dimensionality of earthquake-generating mechanism using a nonlinear predictor technique on two-dimensional phase portrait constructed by recurrence time series. The nonlinear forecasting analysis suggests that the earthquake processes in the Sumatra region evolve on a non-random low-dimensional chaotic plane. Further, second-order Kolmogorov entropy “K2” analysis revealed a coherent time structure, indicating quasi-deterministic dynamical pattern. Our result is consistent with “self-organized” processes determined by the internal dynamics, where impulsively derived interdependencies cascade through the tectonic stress generated by plate movement. However, we do not preclude the triggering role of other external processes on the coupled underlying system. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • R. Tiwari & P. Krishnaveni, 2015. "Evidence of self-organization in Sumatra earthquakes: recurrence time and its geodynamical implications," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(1), pages 51-63, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:77:y:2015:i:1:p:51-63
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1353-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-014-1353-7
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-014-1353-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Seth Stein & Emile A. Okal, 2005. "Speed and size of the Sumatra earthquake," Nature, Nature, vol. 434(7033), pages 581-582, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. A. Narayana, 2011. "Tectonic geomorphology, tsunamis and environmental hazards: reference to Andaman-Nicobar Islands," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 57(1), pages 65-82, April.
    2. Kirti Srivastava & R. Krishna Kumar & M. Swapna & V. Swaroopa Rani & V. Dimri, 2012. "Inundation studies for Nagapattinam region on the east coast of India due to tsunamigenic earthquakes from the Andaman region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(1), pages 211-221, August.
    3. Panon Latcharote & Khaled Al-Salem & Anawat Suppasri & Tanuspong Pokavanich & Shinji Toda & Yogeesha Jayaramu & Abdullah Al-Enezi & Alanoud Al-Ragum & Fumihiko Imamura, 2018. "Tsunami hazard evaluation for Kuwait and Arabian Gulf due to Makran Subduction Zone and Subaerial landslides," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(1), pages 127-152, September.
    4. Hermann Fritz & Emile Okal, 2008. "Socotra Island, Yemen: field survey of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(1), pages 107-117, July.
    5. Walter Dragani & Enrique D’Onofrio & Walter Grismeyer & Monica Fiore & Roberto Violante & Elizabeth Rovere, 2009. "Vulnerability of the Atlantic Patagonian coast to tsunamis generated by submarine earthquakes located in the Scotia Arc region. Some numerical experiments," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 49(3), pages 437-458, June.
    6. A. Kumar & S. Wesley, 2012. "Impact of the 2004 Sumatran tsunami on the diversity of intertidal brachyuran assemblages of Maavah, Laamu Atoll, Maldives," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(1), pages 493-510, October.
    7. Lee, Y.L. & Affendi, Y.A. & Tajuddin, B.H. & Yusuf, Y.B. & Kee Alfan, A.A. & Anuar, E.A., 2005. "A post-tsunami assessment of coastal living resources of Langkawi archipelago, Peninsular malaysia," Naga, The WorldFish Center, vol. 28(1/2), pages 17-22.
    8. David Burbidge & Phil Cummins, 2007. "Assessing the threat to Western Australia from tsunami generated by earthquakes along the Sunda Arc," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 43(3), pages 319-331, December.
    9. Wenqi Du & Tso-Chien Pan, 2020. "Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Singapore," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 2883-2903, September.
    10. Basab Mukhopadhyay & Sujit Dasgupta & M. Fnais & Manoj Mukhopadhyay, 2011. "Modelling the pore fluid diffusion process in aftershock initiation for 2004 Sumatra earthquake: implications for marine geohazard estimation in the Andaman region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 57(1), pages 39-49, April.
    11. T. Rossetto & N. Peiris & A. Pomonis & S. Wilkinson & D. Re & R. Koo & S. Gallocher, 2007. "The Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004: observations in Sri Lanka and Thailand," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 42(1), pages 105-124, July.
    12. G. Gopinath & F. Løvholt & G. Kaiser & C. Harbitz & K. Srinivasa Raju & M. Ramalingam & Bhoop Singh, 2014. "Impact of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami along the Tamil Nadu coastline: field survey review and numerical simulations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 743-769, June.
    13. S. Singh & J. Pacheco & M. Ordaz & R. Dattatrayam & G. Suresh & P. Baidya, 2012. "Estimating tsunami potential of earthquakes in the Sumatra–Andaman region based on broadband seismograms in India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(2), pages 1491-1510, November.
    14. Gegar Prasetya & Jose Borrero & Willem Lange & Kerry Black & Terry Healy, 2011. "Modeling of inundation dynamics on Banda Aceh, Indonesia during the great Sumatra tsunamis December 26, 2004," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(3), pages 1029-1055, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:77:y:2015:i:1:p:51-63. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.