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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Singapore

Author

Listed:
  • Wenqi Du

    (Wuhan University)

  • Tso-Chien Pan

    (Nanyang Technological University
    Sino-Singapore International Joint Research Institute (SSIJRI))

Abstract

Seismic hazard assessment of metropolitan areas is an important topic in catastrophe risk management and disaster prevention. In this study, a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is performed to estimate the seismic hazard for Singapore. The PSHA approach has been conducted based on the OpenQuake engine. An updated earthquake catalog for the neighboring region has been compiled from various sources, and three major source zones are identified using the updated earthquake catalog: Sumatra subduction zone, Sumatran strike–slip fault, and deformation–background zone. Also, 10 published ground motion prediction equations are incorporated in the logic-tree framework, which properly accounts for the epistemic uncertainty of ground motion intensity measures. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) values in the mean hazard maps at bedrock sites of Singapore for 10% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years range from 0.04 to 0.05 g and from 0.14 to 0.15 g, respectively. The uniform hazard spectrum consisting of PGA and seven spectral accelerations is generated for rock sites in Singapore. Disaggregation analysis shows that the deformation zone identified contributes dominantly to the PGA hazard of Singapore, whereas the Sumatran strike–slip fault contributes dominantly to the long-period (spectral acceleration at 1.0 s) hazard. Besides, the seismic hazard maps for representative site conditions of Singapore are briefly presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenqi Du & Tso-Chien Pan, 2020. "Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Singapore," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 2883-2903, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:103:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04107-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04107-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Seth Stein & Emile A. Okal, 2005. "Speed and size of the Sumatra earthquake," Nature, Nature, vol. 434(7033), pages 581-582, March.
    2. A. Shoushtari & A. Adnan & M. Zare & N. Harith, 2015. "Estimation of the maximum credible hazard in Kuala Lumpur and Singapore due to gigantic Sumatran megathrust earthquakes: based on a comparative study on attenuation laws," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 725-751, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Masoud Mojarab & Nazi Norouzi & Mahdokht Bayati & Zeinab Asadi & Mohamad Eslami & Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany & Abdul-Latif Helaly & Sara Khoshnevis, 2023. "Assessment of seismic hazard including equivalent-linear soil response analysis for Dhaka Metropolitan Region, Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 3145-3180, July.

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