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Flood Safety versus Remaining Risks - Options and Limitations of Probabilistic Concepts in Flood Management

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  • Andreas Schumann

    (Ruhr University Bochum)

Abstract

Over decades, the planning of flood management was based on a safety-oriented approach. A design flood was estimated by probabilistic means to specify the limit up to which a flood should be controlled completely by technical measures. A case of failure was expected only in such cases where the design flood is overtopped. As design floods were specified by very small probabilities, the risk of a flood beyond the design flood was seen as negligible. Devastating flood events all over Europe raised the public awareness of remaining flood risks in the last two decades. Risk management became a political task in the EU. According to the European Flood Directive geographical areas, which could be flooded “with a low probability or under extreme event scenarios”, have to be specified. The combination of “low probability” and “extreme event scenarios” demonstrates the problem of modern flood management. The existing probabilistic tools are not sufficient to specify the risks of failures, which result from critical combinations of multiple characteristics of hydrological loads. Scenarios are one option to specify them, but their probabilities stay unknown. Multivariate statistics could offer a way to fill this gap, but some problems of their practical application are still unresolved.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Schumann, 2017. "Flood Safety versus Remaining Risks - Options and Limitations of Probabilistic Concepts in Flood Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 3131-3145, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:10:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1700-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1700-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James Charalambous & Ataur Rahman & Don Carroll, 2013. "Application of Monte Carlo Simulation Technique to Design Flood Estimation: A Case Study for North Johnstone River in Queensland, Australia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(11), pages 4099-4111, September.
    2. Bojan Srdjevic & Yvonilde Medeiros, 2008. "Fuzzy AHP Assessment of Water Management Plans," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(7), pages 877-894, July.
    3. Markus Schulte & Andreas Schumann, 2015. "Downstream-Directed Performance Assessment of Reservoirs in Multi-Tributary Catchments by Application of Multivariate Statistics," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 419-430, January.
    4. Wim Kellens & Wouter Vanneuville & Els Verfaillie & Ellen Meire & Pieter Deckers & Philippe Maeyer, 2013. "Flood Risk Management in Flanders: Past Developments and Future Challenges," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3585-3606, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nuria Osés-Eraso & Sébastien Foudi, 2020. "Valoración de riesgos por inundaciones," Working Papers 2020-08, FEDEA.
    2. Shuang Li & Yong Yang & Qing Xia, 2018. "Dynamic Safety Assessment in Nonlinear Hydropower Generation Systems," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-8, April.
    3. George Tsakiris, 2017. "Facets of Modern Water Resources Management: Prolegomena," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 2899-2904, August.

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