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Effect of Extraordinary Large Floods on at-site Flood Frequency

Author

Listed:
  • Bagher Heidarpour

    (Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University)

  • Bahram Saghafian

    (Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University)

  • Jafar Yazdi

    (Shahid Beheshti University)

  • Hazi Mohammad Azamathulla

    (Fiji National University)

Abstract

The peak flow of extraordinary large floods that occur during a period of systematic record is a controversial problem for flood frequency analysis (FFA) using traditional methods. The present study suggests that such floods be treated as historic flood data even though their historical period is unknown. In this paper, the extraordinary large flood peak was first identified using statistical outlier tests and normal probability plots. FFA was then applied with and without the extraordinary large floods. In this step, two goodness-of-fit tests including mean absolute relative deviation and mean squared relative deviation were used to identify the best-fit probability distributions. Next, the generalized extreme value (GEV), three-parameter lognormal (LN3), log-Pearson type III (LP3), and Wakeby (WAK) probability distributions were used to incorporate and adjust the extraordinary large floods with other systematic data. Finally, procedures with and without historical adjustment were compared for the extraordinary large floods in terms of goodness-of-fit and flood return-period quantiles. The results of this comparison indicate that historical adjustment from an operational perspective was more viable than without adjustment procedure. Furthermore, the results without adjustment were unreasonable (subject to over- and under-estimation) and produced physically unrealistic estimates that were not compatible with the study area. The proposed approach substantially improved the probability estimation of rare floods for efficient design of hydraulic structures, risk analysis, and floodplain management.

Suggested Citation

  • Bagher Heidarpour & Bahram Saghafian & Jafar Yazdi & Hazi Mohammad Azamathulla, 2017. "Effect of Extraordinary Large Floods on at-site Flood Frequency," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(13), pages 4187-4205, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:13:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1739-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1739-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ayesha Rahman & Ataur Rahman & Mohammad Zaman & Khaled Haddad & Amimul Ahsan & Monzur Imteaz, 2013. "A study on selection of probability distributions for at-site flood frequency analysis in Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 1803-1813, December.
    2. Osman Mohammadpour & Yousef Hassanzadeh & Ahmad Khodadadi & Bahram Saghafian, 2014. "Selecting the Best Flood Flow Frequency Model Using Multi-Criteria Group Decision-Making," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 3957-3974, September.
    3. Bahram Saghafian & Saeed Golian & Alireza Ghasemi, 2014. "Flood frequency analysis based on simulated peak discharges," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(1), pages 403-417, March.
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    Cited by:

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    2. T. K. Drissia & V. Jothiprakash & A. B. Anitha, 2019. "Flood Frequency Analysis Using L Moments: a Comparison between At-Site and Regional Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(3), pages 1013-1037, February.
    3. Evren Turhan, 2022. "An Investigation on the Effect of Outliers for Flood Frequency Analysis: The Case of the Eastern Mediterranean Basin, Turkey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-12, December.
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