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Coastal inundation and damage exposure estimation: a case study for Jakarta

Author

Listed:
  • P. Ward
  • M. Marfai
  • F. Yulianto
  • D. Hizbaron
  • J. Aerts

Abstract

Coastal flooding poses serious threats to coastal areas, and the vulnerability of coastal communities and economic sectors to flooding will increase in the coming decades due to environmental and socioeconomic changes. It is increasingly recognised that estimates of the vulnerability of cities are essential for planning adaptation measures. Jakarta is a case in point, since parts of the city are subjected to regular flooding on a near-monthly basis. In order to assess the current and future coastal flood hazard, we set up a GIS-based flood model of northern Jakarta to simulate inundated area and value of exposed assets. Under current conditions, estimated damage exposure to extreme coastal flood events with return periods of 100 and 1,000 years is high (€4.0 and €5.2 billion, respectively). Under the scenario for 2100, damage exposure associated with these events increases by a factor 4–5, with little difference between low/high sea-level rise scenarios. This increase is mainly due to rapid land subsidence and excludes socioeconomic developments. We also develop a detemporalised inundation scenario for assessing impacts associated with any coastal flood scenario. This allows for the identification of critical points above which large increases in damage exposure can be expected and also for the assessment of adaptation options against hypothetical user-defined levels of change, rather than being bound to a discrete set of a priori scenarios. The study highlights the need for urgent attention to the land subsidence problem; a continuation of the current rate would result in catastrophic increases in damage exposure. Copyright The Author(s) 2011

Suggested Citation

  • P. Ward & M. Marfai & F. Yulianto & D. Hizbaron & J. Aerts, 2011. "Coastal inundation and damage exposure estimation: a case study for Jakarta," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(3), pages 899-916, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:56:y:2011:i:3:p:899-916
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-010-9599-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Muh Marfai & Lorenz King, 2008. "Tidal inundation mapping under enhanced land subsidence in Semarang, Central Java Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 44(1), pages 93-109, January.
    2. Hasanuddin Abidin & Rochman Djaja & Dudy Darmawan & Samsul Hadi & Arifin Akbar & H. Rajiyowiryono & Y. Sudibyo & I. Meilano & M. Kasuma & J. Kahar & Cecep Subarya, 2001. "Land Subsidence of Jakarta (Indonesia) and its Geodetic Monitoring System," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 23(2), pages 365-387, March.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Song-Yue Yang & Bing-Chen Jhong & You-Da Jhong & Tsung-Tang Tsai & Chang-Shian Chen, 2023. "Long short-term memory integrating moving average method for flood inundation depth forecasting based on observed data in urban area," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 2339-2361, March.
    4. Fajar Yulianto & Parwati Sofan & Any Zubaidah & Kusumaning Sukowati & Junita Pasaribu & Muhammad Khomarudin, 2015. "Detecting areas affected by flood using multi-temporal ALOS PALSAR remotely sensed data in Karawang, West Java, Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 959-985, June.
    5. Fajar Yulianto & Parwati Sofan & Muhammad Khomarudin & Muhammad Haidar, 2013. "Extracting the damaging effects of the 2010 eruption of Merapi volcano in Central Java, Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 229-247, March.
    6. Robert Ogie & Tomas Holderness & Michelle Dunbar & Etienne Turpin, 2017. "Spatio-topological network analysis of hydrological infrastructure as a decision support tool for flood mitigation in coastal mega-cities," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 44(4), pages 718-739, July.
    7. Johnson Ankrah & Ana Monteiro & Helena Madureira, 2023. "Geospatiality of sea level rise impacts and communities’ adaptation: a bibliometric analysis and systematic review," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 1-31, March.
    8. Pini Wijayanti & Tono & Hastuti & Danang Pramudita, 2016. "Estimation of River Flood Damage in Jakarta: The Case of Pesanggrahan River," EEPSEA Research Report rr20160312, Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA), revised Mar 2016.
    9. Muh Marfai & Andung Sekaranom & Philip Ward, 2015. "Community responses and adaptation strategies toward flood hazard in Jakarta, Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1127-1144, January.
    10. Xinmeng Shan & Jie Yin & Jun Wang, 2022. "Risk assessment of shanghai extreme flooding under the land use change scenario," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(2), pages 1039-1060, January.
    11. Mehdi Hafezi & Oz Sahin & Rodney A. Stewart & Brendan Mackey, 2018. "Creating a Novel Multi-Layered Integrative Climate Change Adaptation Planning Approach Using a Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-30, November.

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    Keywords

    Flood; Damage; Jakarta; GIS; Model;
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