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Assessment of hazards and economic losses induced by land subsidence in Tianjin Binhai new area from 2011 to 2020 based on scenario analysis

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Listed:
  • Beibei Hu
  • Jun Zhou
  • Shiyuan Xu
  • Zhenlou Chen
  • Jun Wang
  • Dongqi Wang
  • Lei Wang
  • Jifa Guo
  • Weiqing Meng

Abstract

Land subsidence, a major geological hazard in Tianjin, has caused serious losses. In this research, we established a numerical model to predict potential land subsidence caused by groundwater overdraft in the next decades. The model set three groundwater extraction scenarios, corresponding to (1) current rate, (2) 2 % decrease, and (3) South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Economic losses induced by land subsidence were calculated based on the three land subsidence scenarios. The results showed that with a better management plan (e.g., 2 % decrease in groundwater extraction) or with the success of the water transfer project, the economic loss could be reduced by 36 % or even 74 %. The results of this research provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development planning as well as disaster prevention policy-making of Tianjin Binhai New Area. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Beibei Hu & Jun Zhou & Shiyuan Xu & Zhenlou Chen & Jun Wang & Dongqi Wang & Lei Wang & Jifa Guo & Weiqing Meng, 2013. "Assessment of hazards and economic losses induced by land subsidence in Tianjin Binhai new area from 2011 to 2020 based on scenario analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 873-886, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:66:y:2013:i:2:p:873-886
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0530-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ye-Shuang Xu & Shui-Long Shen & Zheng-Yin Cai & Guo-Yun Zhou, 2008. "The state of land subsidence and prediction approaches due to groundwater withdrawal in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 45(1), pages 123-135, April.
    2. Yaolong Liu & Zhenlou Chen & Jun Wang & Beibei Hu & Mingwu Ye & Shiyuan Xu, 2012. "Large-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study of Wenzhou City, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(3), pages 1287-1298, February.
    3. Hasanuddin Abidin & Rochman Djaja & Dudy Darmawan & Samsul Hadi & Arifin Akbar & H. Rajiyowiryono & Y. Sudibyo & I. Meilano & M. Kasuma & J. Kahar & Cecep Subarya, 2001. "Land Subsidence of Jakarta (Indonesia) and its Geodetic Monitoring System," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 23(2), pages 365-387, March.
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    3. Maxwell C. Wilson & Xiao-Yan Li & Yu-Jun Ma & Andrew T. Smith & Jianguo Wu, 2017. "A Review of the Economic, Social, and Environmental Impacts of China’s South–North Water Transfer Project: A Sustainability Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-11, August.
    4. Yong Yuan & Denghua Yan & Zhe Yuan & Jun Yin & Zhongnan Zhao, 2019. "Spatial Distribution of Precipitation in Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin between 1961 to 2016, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-11, September.
    5. Zhaohui Zhang & Xuliang Zhang & Zongjun Xu & Haiyan Yao & Ge Li & Xiujun Liu, 2015. "Emergency countermeasures against marine disasters in Qingdao City on the basis of scenario analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 233-255, February.
    6. S. Kok & A. L. Costa, 2021. "Framework for economic cost assessment of land subsidence," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 1931-1949, April.
    7. Mahdi Moudi & Zhongwen Xu & Liming Yao & He Yuan, 2020. "Dynamic Optimization Model for Improving Urban Water Supply System Fragility with Uncertain Streamflow," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(4), pages 1465-1477, March.
    8. Yuning Gao & Miao Yu, 2018. "Assessment of the economic impact of South-to-North Water Diversion Project on industrial sectors in Beijing," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-17, December.
    9. James Yoo & Thomas Frederick, 2017. "The varying impact of land subsidence and earth fissures on residential property values in Maricopa County – a quantile regression approach," International Journal of Urban Sciences, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 204-216, May.

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