IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v110y2022i2d10.1007_s11069-021-04978-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk assessment of shanghai extreme flooding under the land use change scenario

Author

Listed:
  • Xinmeng Shan

    (East China Normal University
    East China Normal University)

  • Jie Yin

    (East China Normal University
    East China Normal University)

  • Jun Wang

    (East China Normal University
    East China Normal University)

Abstract

Environmental changes have led to non-stationary flood risks in coastal cities. How to quantitatively characterize the future change trend and effectively adapt is a critical problem that needs urgent attention. To this end, this study uses the 2010 Shanghai land use data as the base and utilizes the future land use simulation (FLUS) model to simulate future land use change scenarios (2030, 2050, and 2100). Based on the results of storm and flood numerical simulations, probabilistic risk, and other multidisciplinary methods, extreme storm and flood risks of various land uses (residential, commercial and public service, industrial, transportation, agricultural, and other land) in Shanghai are analyzed. Our findings demonstrate that the future land use simulated results show that the simulation accuracy is very high, meeting the needs of our research. We evaluated future land use exposure assets and losses and found that their spatial distribution patterns are consistent, ranging from a sporadic distribution for 1/10-year to a banded distribution for 1/1000-year under the two emission scenarios. In terms of economic loss, the losses of total land use in Shanghai for 1/1000-year in 2100 are 1.8–2.7 times that of 2010 under the RCP8.5 scenario. The expected annual damage (EAD) of Shanghai’s land use in 2030, 2050, and 2100 is 189.9 million CNY, 409.8 million CNY, and 743.5 million CNY under the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively, which is 1.7–3.0 times the EAD under the RCP2.6 scenario. Among them, residential, commercial and public service land as well as industrial land has the highest EAD. Risks are mainly distributed in the city center, the lower reaches of the Huangpu River, the northern shore of Hangzhou Bay, the Qingpu (QP)–Songjiang (SJ) depression in the southwest, and Chongming (CM) Island (southwest and northeast). Our work can provide meaningful information for risk-sensitive urban planning and resilience building in Shanghai. These multidisciplinary methods can also be applied to assess flood risk in other coastal cities.

Suggested Citation

  • Xinmeng Shan & Jie Yin & Jun Wang, 2022. "Risk assessment of shanghai extreme flooding under the land use change scenario," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(2), pages 1039-1060, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:110:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04978-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04978-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-021-04978-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-021-04978-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jidong Wu & Mengqi Ye & Xu Wang & Elco Koks, 2019. "Building Asset Value Mapping in Support of Flood Risk Assessments: A Case Study of Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, February.
    2. Du, Hongyan & Ma, Yongkai & An, Yunbi, 2011. "The impact of land policy on the relation between housing and land prices: Evidence from China," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 19-27, February.
    3. Stephane Hallegatte & Colin Green & Robert J. Nicholls & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2013. "Future flood losses in major coastal cities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 802-806, September.
    4. Jochen Hinkel & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts & Sally Brown & Jose A. Jiménez & Daniel Lincke & Robert J. Nicholls & Paolo Scussolini & Agustín Sanchez-Arcilla & Athanasios Vafeidis & Kwasi Appeaning Addo, 2018. "The ability of societies to adapt to twenty-first-century sea-level rise," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(7), pages 570-578, July.
    5. Brenden Jongman, 2018. "Effective adaptation to rising flood risk," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-3, December.
    6. Le-Minh Ngo & Le Thi Kieu & Hai-Yen Hoang & Hai-Binh Nguyen, 2020. "Experiences of Housing Adapted to Sea Level Rise and Applicability for Houses in the Can Gio District, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-14, May.
    7. Hessel C. Winsemius & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts & Ludovicus P. H. van Beek & Marc F. P. Bierkens & Arno Bouwman & Brenden Jongman & Jaap C. J. Kwadijk & Willem Ligtvoet & Paul L. Lucas & Detlef P. van Vuu, 2016. "Global drivers of future river flood risk," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(4), pages 381-385, April.
    8. P. Ward & M. Marfai & F. Yulianto & D. Hizbaron & J. Aerts, 2011. "Coastal inundation and damage exposure estimation: a case study for Jakarta," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(3), pages 899-916, March.
    9. Robert J. Nicholls & Susan E. Hanson & Jason A. Lowe & Richard A. Warrick & Xianfu Lu & Antony J. Long, 2014. "Sea‐level scenarios for evaluating coastal impacts," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), pages 129-150, January.
    10. Robert Pontius & Wideke Boersma & Jean-Christophe Castella & Keith Clarke & Ton Nijs & Charles Dietzel & Zengqiang Duan & Eric Fotsing & Noah Goldstein & Kasper Kok & Eric Koomen & Christopher Lippitt, 2008. "Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 11-37, March.
    11. Jochen Hinkel & Carlo Jaeger & Robert J. Nicholls & Jason Lowe & Ortwin Renn & Shi Peijun, 2015. "Sea-level rise scenarios and coastal risk management," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(3), pages 188-190, March.
    12. Mook Bangalore & Andrew Smith & Ted Veldkamp, 2019. "Exposure to Floods, Climate Change, and Poverty in Vietnam," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 79-99, April.
    13. Jun Wang & Wei Gao & Shiyuan Xu & Lizhong Yu, 2012. "Evaluation of the combined risk of sea level rise, land subsidence, and storm surges on the coastal areas of Shanghai, China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 537-558, December.
    14. Xinmeng Shan & Jiahong Wen & Min Zhang & Luyang Wang & Qian Ke & Weijiang Li & Shiqiang Du & Yong Shi & Kun Chen & Banggu Liao & Xiande Li & Hui Xu, 2019. "Scenario-Based Extreme Flood Risk of Residential Buildings and Household Properties in Shanghai," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-18, June.
    15. Michalis I. Vousdoukas & Lorenzo Mentaschi & Evangelos Voukouvalas & Martin Verlaan & Svetlana Jevrejeva & Luke P. Jackson & Luc Feyen, 2018. "Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hui Xu & Junlong Gao & Xinchun Yu & Qianqian Qin & Shiqiang Du & Jiahong Wen, 2024. "Assessment of Rainstorm Waterlogging Disaster Risk in Rapidly Urbanizing Areas Based on Land Use Scenario Simulation: A Case Study of Jiangqiao Town in Shanghai, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Shuangying Li & Yanyan Zhou & Dongxia Yue & Yan Zhao, 2024. "Streamflow Variation under Climate Conditions Based on a Soil and Water Assessment Tool Model: A Case Study of the Bailong River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-20, May.
    3. Fang Wei & Lvwang Zhao, 2022. "The Effect of Flood Risk on Residential Land Prices," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-18, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Antoine Mandel & Timothy Tiggeloven & Daniel Lincke & Elco Koks & Philip Ward & Jochen Hinkel, 2021. "Risks on global financial stability induced by climate change: the case of flood risks," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-24, May.
    2. Ioannis Kougkoulos & Myriam Merad & Simon J. Cook & Ioannis Andredakis, 2021. "Floods in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur and lessons for French flood risk governance," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(2), pages 1959-1980, November.
    3. Xinmeng Shan & Jiahong Wen & Min Zhang & Luyang Wang & Qian Ke & Weijiang Li & Shiqiang Du & Yong Shi & Kun Chen & Banggu Liao & Xiande Li & Hui Xu, 2019. "Scenario-Based Extreme Flood Risk of Residential Buildings and Household Properties in Shanghai," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-18, June.
    4. Si Ha & Hirokazu Tatano & Nobuhito Mori & Toshio Fujimi & Xinyu Jiang, 2021. "Cost–benefit analysis of adaptation to storm surge due to climate change in Osaka Bay, Japan," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-20, December.
    5. Jasper Verschuur & Dewi Bars & Caroline A. Katsman & Sierd de Vries & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Sybren S. Drijfhout & Stefan G. J. Aarninkhof, 2020. "Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 859-876, September.
    6. Weijiang Li & Jiahong Wen & Bo Xu & Xiande Li & Shiqiang Du, 2018. "Integrated Assessment of Economic Losses in Manufacturing Industry in Shanghai Metropolitan Area Under an Extreme Storm Flood Scenario," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-19, December.
    7. Kai Yin & Sudong Xu & Quan Zhao & Nini Zhang & Mengqi Li, 2021. "Effects of sea surface warming and sea-level rise on tropical cyclone and inundation modeling at Shanghai coast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 755-784, October.
    8. Reguero, Borja G. & Beck, Michael W. & Schmid, David & Stadtmüller, Daniel & Raepple, Justus & Schüssele, Stefan & Pfliegner, Kerstin, 2020. "Financing coastal resilience by combining nature-based risk reduction with insurance," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    9. Julien Boulange & Yukiko Hirabayashi & Masahiro Tanoue & Toshinori Yamada, 2023. "Quantitative evaluation of flood damage methodologies under a portfolio of adaptation scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 1855-1879, September.
    10. Philip Bubeck & Lisa Dillenardt & Lorenzo Alfieri & Luc Feyen & Annegret H. Thieken & Patric Kellermann, 2019. "Global warming to increase flood risk on European railways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 19-36, July.
    11. Maruyama Rentschler,Jun Erik & Avner,Paolo & Marconcini,Mattia & Su,Rui & Strano,Emanuele & Bernard,Louise Alice Karine & Riom,Capucine Anne Veronique & Hallegatte,Stephane, 2022. "Rapid Urban Growth in Flood Zones : Global Evidence since 1985," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10014, The World Bank.
    12. Robert Ogie & Tomas Holderness & Michelle Dunbar & Etienne Turpin, 2017. "Spatio-topological network analysis of hydrological infrastructure as a decision support tool for flood mitigation in coastal mega-cities," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 44(4), pages 718-739, July.
    13. Santosh Pathak & Hari Krishna Panta & Thaneshwar Bhandari & Krishna P. Paudel, 2020. "Flood vulnerability and its influencing factors," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2175-2196, December.
    14. Jidong Wu & Mengqi Ye & Xu Wang & Elco Koks, 2019. "Building Asset Value Mapping in Support of Flood Risk Assessments: A Case Study of Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, February.
    15. Ke Wang & Yongsheng Yang & Genserik Reniers & Quanyi Huang, 2021. "A study into the spatiotemporal distribution of typhoon storm surge disasters in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 1237-1256, August.
    16. Ping Ai & Dingbo Yuan & Chuansheng Xiong, 2018. "Copula-Based Joint Probability Analysis of Compound Floods from Rainstorm and Typhoon Surge: A Case Study of Jiangsu Coastal Areas, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-18, June.
    17. Caridad Ballesteros & José A. Jiménez & Christophe Viavattene, 2018. "A multi-component flood risk assessment in the Maresme coast (NW Mediterranean)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(1), pages 265-292, January.
    18. Déborah Idier & Jérémy Rohmer & Rodrigo Pedreros & Sylvestre Roy & Jérome Lambert & Jessie Louisor & Gonéri Cozannet & Erwan Cornec, 2020. "Coastal flood: a composite method for past events characterisation providing insights in past, present and future hazards—joining historical, statistical and modelling approaches," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 101(2), pages 465-501, March.
    19. Johnson Ankrah & Ana Monteiro & Helena Madureira, 2023. "Geospatiality of sea level rise impacts and communities’ adaptation: a bibliometric analysis and systematic review," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 1-31, March.
    20. Ramiro Parrado & Francesco Bosello & Elisa Delpiazzo & Jochen Hinkel & Daniel Lincke & Sally Brown, 2020. "Fiscal effects and the potential implications on economic growth of sea-level rise impacts and coastal zone protection," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 283-302, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:110:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04978-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.