Insights into meteorological drought: navigating Uganda’s cattle corridor through past trends and future projections

The cattle corridor in Uganda is known for its vulnerability to unpredictable rainfall patterns, recurring and severe droughts, all of which lead to water scarcity and crop failures. Therefore, to gain a deeper understanding of these drought characteristics, three districts were selected within the cattle corridor: Rakai in the South, Nakasongola in the Central, and Nabilatuk in the North. An analysis of historical and near future meteorological drought changes in the cattle corridor using SPI from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) for the historical periods 1981–2010 and 2031–2060 (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Trends in SPI values were assessed using the Sen slope estimator and Mann–Kendall test at 0.05. Results suggest ongoing drought occurrences, even during traditionally wet periods, especially during La Niña period. Nakasongola district experienced more frequent droughts, with 25 in the historical period and 26 in the near future compared to Rakai and Nabilatuk districts. Historically, the districts had average drought spans of 7–9 months and maximum spans of 23–36 months. Under RCP4.5, durations ranged from 6 to 11 months (average) and 34–60 months (maximum), while under RCP8.5, from 8 to 13 months (average) and 23–41 months (maximum). Drought severity and duration were expected to increase across all districts, with Rakai district facing the longest historical (January 2007–December 2009) and the projected (April 2054–March 2059) droughts. Additionally, Nabilatuk showed negative and significant SPI trends historically (Sen’s slope = − 004, p value = 0.004). Hence, tailored interventions are crucial for stakeholders managing drought to build resilience.