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Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models

Author

Listed:
  • Brian Ayugi

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
    University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Zablon Weku Shilenje

    (Charles University
    Kenya Meteorological Department)

  • Hassen Babaousmail

    (Binjiang College of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Kenny T. C. Lim Kam Sian

    (Binjiang College of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Richard Mumo

    (Botswana International University of Science and Technology)

  • Victor Nnamdi Dike

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Imo State Polytechnic Umuagwo)

  • Vedaste Iyakaremye

    (University of Information Science and Technology
    Rwanda Meteorology Agency)

  • Abdelghani Chehbouni

    (Mohammed VI Polytechnic University)

  • Victor Ongoma

    (Mohammed VI Polytechnic University)

Abstract

The ongoing global warming has caused unprecedented changes in the climate system, leading to an increase in the intensity and frequency of weather and climate extremes. This study uses the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) data to investigate projected changes in drought events over East Africa (EA) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-4.0, and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 data are bias-corrected using a quantile mapping method, with the Climatic Research Unit's precipitation dataset as reference. Drought is quantified using the standardized precipitation index and different measures of drought are estimated: drought duration, drought frequency, drought severity, and drought intensity. Evaluating the accuracy and reliability of historical data before and after bias correction demonstrates the importance of the approach. The overall distribution after bias correction depicts a close agreement with observation. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble mean demonstrate superiority over individual Global Circulation Models. Projected future changes show enhancement in precipitation over most parts of EA in the far future under different SSP scenarios. However, the arid and semi-arid regions are expected to receive less amount of precipitation, whereas the highlands and lake regions are expected to receive a larger amount of precipitation increase. Furthermore, the dry areas of EA are likely to experience more frequent drought events with longer duration, stronger intensity, and severity in the far future. Overall, this study identifies possible drought hotspots over EA, enabling early preparation for such events.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Ayugi & Zablon Weku Shilenje & Hassen Babaousmail & Kenny T. C. Lim Kam Sian & Richard Mumo & Victor Nnamdi Dike & Vedaste Iyakaremye & Abdelghani Chehbouni & Victor Ongoma, 2022. "Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(2), pages 1151-1176, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:113:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05341-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05341-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. F. S. Nalwanga & J. Nanteza & J. Obua & A. Nimusiima & P. Mukwaya & J. Kisembe & R. Odongo & P. Musali & G. N. Nabanoga & Y. Kisira, 2024. "Insights into meteorological drought: navigating Uganda’s cattle corridor through past trends and future projections," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(9), pages 8695-8721, July.
    4. Yixin Tong & Honglin Jiang & Ning Xu & Zhengzhong Wang & Ying Xiong & Jiangfan Yin & Junhui Huang & Yue Chen & Qingwu Jiang & Yibiao Zhou, 2023. "Global Distribution of Culex tritaeniorhynchus and Impact Factors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-15, March.

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