IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v109y2021i1d10.1007_s11069-021-04856-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effects of sea surface warming and sea-level rise on tropical cyclone and inundation modeling at Shanghai coast

Author

Listed:
  • Kai Yin

    (Southeast University)

  • Sudong Xu

    (Southeast University)

  • Quan Zhao

    (Southeast University)

  • Nini Zhang

    (Southeast University)

  • Mengqi Li

    (Southeast University)

Abstract

Understanding the response of tropical cyclones and inundation to sea surface temperature (SST) warming and sea-level rise (SLR) is a substantial topic of science and engineering. A coupled atmospheric WRF model and hydrodynamic ADCIRC model are utilized to determine the impacts of increasing SST and rising sea level on two typhoon tracks, wind fields, and associated inundation. The reliable performance of established models is confirmed against available measurements during the typhoon Matsa (2005) and Chan-hom (2015) period. Validated models are then simulated with increasing several SST and SLR scenarios. Through comparing simulation results obtained with the base case and various climate change scenarios, it is found that sea surface warming results in apparent typhoon intensification and variation of the wind fields. Meanwhile, both SST warming and SLR can make a difference to typhoon-induced inundation, while SLR has a greater influence than SST warming. Furthermore, SST warming accompanying with SLR can lead to a substantial expansion of the inundated regions induced by both typhoons. The influence increases with larger changes in SST and SLR, and the extent of the influence is different between the selected two typhoons. Knowledge of the potential higher levels of tropical cyclone hazard can be of great benefit to the development of coastal disaster prevention and mitigation engineering.

Suggested Citation

  • Kai Yin & Sudong Xu & Quan Zhao & Nini Zhang & Mengqi Li, 2021. "Effects of sea surface warming and sea-level rise on tropical cyclone and inundation modeling at Shanghai coast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 755-784, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:109:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04856-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04856-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-021-04856-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-021-04856-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duo Chan & Elizabeth C. Kent & David I. Berry & Peter Huybers, 2019. "Correcting datasets leads to more homogeneous early-twentieth-century sea surface warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 571(7765), pages 393-397, July.
    2. Martin Mäll & Ryota Nakamura & Ülo Suursaar & Tomoya Shibayama, 2020. "Pseudo-climate modelling study on projected changes in extreme extratropical cyclones, storm waves and surges under CMIP5 multi-model ensemble: Baltic Sea perspective," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(1), pages 67-99, May.
    3. M. Zemp & M. Huss & E. Thibert & N. Eckert & R. McNabb & J. Huber & M. Barandun & H. Machguth & S. U. Nussbaumer & I. Gärtner-Roer & L. Thomson & F. Paul & F. Maussion & S. Kutuzov & J. G. Cogley, 2019. "Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016," Nature, Nature, vol. 568(7752), pages 382-386, April.
    4. Ryota Nakamura & Tomoya Shibayama & Miguel Esteban & Takumu Iwamoto, 2016. "Future typhoon and storm surges under different global warming scenarios: case study of typhoon Haiyan (2013)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 1645-1681, July.
    5. Christina M. Patricola & Michael F. Wehner, 2018. "Anthropogenic influences on major tropical cyclone events," Nature, Nature, vol. 563(7731), pages 339-346, November.
    6. Khandker Tasnim & Tomoya Shibayama & Miguel Esteban & Hiroshi Takagi & Koichiro Ohira & Ryota Nakamura, 2015. "Field observation and numerical simulation of past and future storm surges in the Bay of Bengal: case study of cyclone Nargis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1619-1647, January.
    7. Carling C. Hay & Eric Morrow & Robert E. Kopp & Jerry X. Mitrovica, 2015. "Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise," Nature, Nature, vol. 517(7535), pages 481-484, January.
    8. Christopher M. Little & Radley M. Horton & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Gabriel A. Vecchi & Gabriele Villarini, 2015. "Joint projections of US East Coast sea level and storm surge," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(12), pages 1114-1120, December.
    9. John M. Lyman & Simon A. Good & Viktor V. Gouretski & Masayoshi Ishii & Gregory C. Johnson & Matthew D. Palmer & Doug M. Smith & Josh K. Willis, 2010. "Robust warming of the global upper ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 465(7296), pages 334-337, May.
    10. Xinmeng Shan & Jiahong Wen & Min Zhang & Luyang Wang & Qian Ke & Weijiang Li & Shiqiang Du & Yong Shi & Kun Chen & Banggu Liao & Xiande Li & Hui Xu, 2019. "Scenario-Based Extreme Flood Risk of Residential Buildings and Household Properties in Shanghai," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-18, June.
    11. Il-Ju Moon & Sung-Hun Kim & Johnny C. L. Chan, 2019. "Climate change and tropical cyclone trend," Nature, Nature, vol. 570(7759), pages 3-5, June.
    12. Michalis I. Vousdoukas & Lorenzo Mentaschi & Evangelos Voukouvalas & Martin Verlaan & Svetlana Jevrejeva & Luke P. Jackson & Luc Feyen, 2018. "Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    13. Julio T. Bacmeister & Kevin A. Reed & Cecile Hannay & Peter Lawrence & Susan Bates & John E. Truesdale & Nan Rosenbloom & Michael Levy, 2018. "Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high-resolution climate model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 547-560, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin Mäll & Ryota Nakamura & Ülo Suursaar & Tomoya Shibayama, 2020. "Pseudo-climate modelling study on projected changes in extreme extratropical cyclones, storm waves and surges under CMIP5 multi-model ensemble: Baltic Sea perspective," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(1), pages 67-99, May.
    2. Le Bars, Dewi, 2018. "Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors," Earth Arxiv uvw3s, Center for Open Science.
    3. Sooncheol Hwang & Sangyoung Son & Chilwoo Lee & Hyun-Doug Yoon, 2020. "Quantitative assessment of inundation risks from physical contributors associated with future storm surges: a case study of Typhoon Maemi (2003)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1389-1411, November.
    4. Xinmeng Shan & Jie Yin & Jun Wang, 2022. "Risk assessment of shanghai extreme flooding under the land use change scenario," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(2), pages 1039-1060, January.
    5. Thit Oo Kyaw & Miguel Esteban & Martin Mäll & Tomoya Shibayama, 2021. "Extreme waves induced by cyclone Nargis at Myanmar coast: numerical modeling versus satellite observations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 1797-1818, April.
    6. Ryota Nakamura & Martin Mäll & Tomoya Shibayama, 2019. "Street-scale storm surge load impact assessment using fine-resolution numerical modelling: a case study from Nemuro, Japan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(1), pages 391-422, October.
    7. Jisesh Sethunadh & F. W. Letson & R. J. Barthelmie & S. C. Pryor, 2023. "Assessing the impact of global warming on windstorms in the northeastern United States using the pseudo-global-warming method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2807-2834, July.
    8. Reza Marsooli & Ning Lin, 2020. "Impacts of climate change on hurricane flood hazards in Jamaica Bay, New York," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2153-2171, December.
    9. Swen Jullien & Jérôme Aucan & Elodie Kestenare & Matthieu Lengaigne & Christophe Menkes, 2024. "Unveiling the global influence of tropical cyclones on extreme waves approaching coastal areas," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Martin Mäll & Ülo Suursaar & Ryota Nakamura & Tomoya Shibayama, 2017. "Modelling a storm surge under future climate scenarios: case study of extratropical cyclone Gudrun (2005)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(3), pages 1119-1144, December.
    11. Jian Shi & Xiangbo Feng & Ralf Toumi & Chi Zhang & Kevin I. Hodges & Aifeng Tao & Wei Zhang & Jinhai Zheng, 2024. "Global increase in tropical cyclone ocean surface waves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    12. Lianjie Qin & Laiyin Zhu & Baoyin Liu & Zixuan Li & Yugang Tian & Gordon Mitchell & Shifei Shen & Wei Xu & Jianguo Chen, 2024. "Global expansion of tropical cyclone precipitation footprint," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    13. Malone, Thomas C. & DiGiacomo, Paul M. & Gonçalves, Emanuel & Knap, Anthony H. & Talaue-McManus, Liana & de Mora, Stephen, 2014. "A global ocean observing system framework for sustainable development," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 262-272.
    14. Yishu, Li, 2019. "A photovoltaic ecosystem: improving atmospheric environment and fighting regional poverty," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 69-79.
    15. Jamero, Ma. Laurice & Esteban, Miguel & Chadwick, Christopher & Onuki, Motoharu, 2019. "Rethinking the Limits of Climate Change Adaptation," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 584, Asian Development Bank.
    16. D. J. Rasmussen & Scott Kulp & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2022. "Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-17, February.
    17. Akbar Hossain Kanan & Francesco Pirotti & Mauro Masiero & Md Masudur Rahman, 2023. "Mapping inundation from sea level rise and its interaction with land cover in the Sundarbans mangrove forest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(8), pages 1-22, August.
    18. Chai Liang Huang & Lai Ferry Sugianto, 2024. "The scorching temperatures shock effect on firms’ performance: a global perspective," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1651-1732, May.
    19. Fei Liu & Jun Sasaki & Jundong Chen & Yulong Wang, 2022. "Numerical assessment of coastal multihazard vulnerability in Tokyo Bay," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 3597-3625, December.
    20. Disha Sachan & Pankaj Kumar & Md. Saquib Saharwardi, 2022. "Contemporary climate change velocity for near-surface temperatures over India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-19, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:109:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04856-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.