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Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high-resolution climate model

Author

Listed:
  • Julio T. Bacmeister

    (Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Kevin A. Reed

    (Stony Brook University)

  • Cecile Hannay

    (Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Peter Lawrence

    (Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Susan Bates

    (Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • John E. Truesdale

    (Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Nan Rosenbloom

    (Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Michael Levy

    (Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research)

Abstract

This study examines how characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) that are explicitly resolved in a global atmospheric model with horizontal resolution of approximately 28 km are projected to change in a warmer climate using bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The impact of mitigating from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5 is explicitly considered and is compared with uncertainties arising from SST projections. We find a reduction in overall global TC activity as climate warms. This reduction is somewhat less pronounced under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5. By contrast, the frequency of very intense TCs is projected to increase dramatically in a warmer climate, with most of the increase concentrated in the NW Pacific basin. Extremes of storm related precipitation are also projected to become more common. Reduction in the frequency of extreme precipitation events is possible through mitigation from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5. In general more detailed basin-scale projections of future TC activity are subject to large uncertainties due to uncertainties in future SSTs. In most cases these uncertainties are larger than the effects of mitigating from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5.

Suggested Citation

  • Julio T. Bacmeister & Kevin A. Reed & Cecile Hannay & Peter Lawrence & Susan Bates & John E. Truesdale & Nan Rosenbloom & Michael Levy, 2018. "Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high-resolution climate model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 547-560, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:146:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1750-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1750-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chunzai Wang & Liping Zhang & Sang-Ki Lee & Lixin Wu & Carlos R. Mechoso, 2014. "A global perspective on CMIP5 climate model biases," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(3), pages 201-205, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Simona Meiler & Thomas Vogt & Nadia Bloemendaal & Alessio Ciullo & Chia-Ying Lee & Suzana J. Camargo & Kerry Emanuel & David N. Bresch, 2022. "Intercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Shyamsundar, Priya & Sauls, Laura Aileen & Cheek, Jennifer Zavaleta & Sullivan-Wiley, Kira & Erbaugh, J.T. & Krishnapriya, P.P., 2021. "Global forces of change: Implications for forest-poverty dynamics," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Kerstin K. Zander & Stephen Garnett, 2020. "Risk and experience drive the importance of natural hazards for peoples’ mobility decisions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1639-1654, October.
    4. Paul Christian & Eeshani Kandpal & Nethra Palaniswamy & Vijayendra Rao, 2019. "Safety nets and natural disaster mitigation: evidence from cyclone Phailin in Odisha," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 141-164, March.
    5. Kai Yin & Sudong Xu & Quan Zhao & Nini Zhang & Mengqi Li, 2021. "Effects of sea surface warming and sea-level rise on tropical cyclone and inundation modeling at Shanghai coast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 755-784, October.
    6. Yang Yang & David J. W. Piper & Min Xu & Jianhua Gao & Jianjun Jia & Alexandre Normandeau & Dongdong Chu & Liang Zhou & Ya Ping Wang & Shu Gao, 2022. "Northwestern Pacific tropical cyclone activity enhanced by increased Asian dust emissions during the Little Ice Age," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Richard A Marcantonio & Sean Field & Patrick M Regan, 2019. "Toxic trajectories under future climate conditions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(12), pages 1-12, December.
    8. Reza Marsooli & Ning Lin, 2020. "Impacts of climate change on hurricane flood hazards in Jamaica Bay, New York," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2153-2171, December.

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