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Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard

Author

Listed:
  • Michalis I. Vousdoukas

    (Joint European Research Centre (JRC)
    University of the Aegean, University hill)

  • Lorenzo Mentaschi

    (Joint European Research Centre (JRC))

  • Evangelos Voukouvalas

    (Engineering Ingegneria Informatica S.p.A. Via S. Martino della Battaglia, 56)

  • Martin Verlaan

    (Deltares
    TU Delft)

  • Svetlana Jevrejeva

    (Joseph Proudman building)

  • Luke P. Jackson

    (Nuffield College)

  • Luc Feyen

    (Joint European Research Centre (JRC))

Abstract

Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world’s coastlines. In this work we present probabilistic projections of ESLs for the present century taking into consideration changes in mean sea level, tides, wind-waves, and storm surges. Between the year 2000 and 2100 we project a very likely increase of the global average 100-year ESL of 34–76 cm under a moderate-emission-mitigation-policy scenario and of 58–172 cm under a business as usual scenario. Rising ESLs are mostly driven by thermal expansion, followed by contributions from ice mass-loss from glaciers, and ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Under these scenarios ESL rise would render a large part of the tropics exposed annually to the present-day 100-year event from 2050. By the end of this century this applies to most coastlines around the world, implying unprecedented flood risk levels unless timely adaptation measures are taken.

Suggested Citation

  • Michalis I. Vousdoukas & Lorenzo Mentaschi & Evangelos Voukouvalas & Martin Verlaan & Svetlana Jevrejeva & Luke P. Jackson & Luc Feyen, 2018. "Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-04692-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w
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    Cited by:

    1. L. Oosterhout & E. Koks & P. Beukering & S. Schep & T. Tiggeloven & S. Manen & M. Knaap & C. Duinmeijer & S. L. Buijs, 2023. "An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Implications on Bonaire," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 147-178, July.
    2. Alexandra Toimil & Iñigo J. Losada & Moisés Álvarez-Cuesta & Gonéri Cozannet, 2023. "Demonstrating the value of beaches for adaptation to future coastal flood risk," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Aurélien Callens & Denis Morichon & Benoit Liquet, 2023. "Bayesian networks to predict storm impact using data from both monitoring networks and statistical learning methods," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(3), pages 2031-2050, February.
    4. Taoufik Chtioui & Mounir Hakkou & Abdelhaq Aangri & Farah El Hassani & Zakaria El Mostafa & Aicha Benmohammadi, 2024. "Assessing coastal flood risk under extreme events and sea level rise in the Casablanca-Mohammedia coastline (Morocco)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(12), pages 10727-10752, September.
    5. Jasper Verschuur & Dewi Bars & Caroline A. Katsman & Sierd de Vries & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Sybren S. Drijfhout & Stefan G. J. Aarninkhof, 2020. "Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 859-876, September.
    6. Rafael Almar & Julien Boucharel & Marcan Graffin & Gregoire Ondoa Abessolo & Gregoire Thoumyre & Fabrice Papa & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Jennifer Montano & Erwin W. J. Bergsma & Mohamed Wassim Baba & Fei, 2023. "Influence of El Niño on the variability of global shoreline position," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Georgia Siakara & Nikolaos Gourgouletis & Evangelos Baltas, 2024. "Assessing the Efficiency of Fully Two-Dimensional Hydraulic HEC-RAS Models in Rivers of Cyprus," Geographies, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-24, August.
    8. Yebao Wang & Jiaqi Liu & Xin Du & Qian Liu & Xin Liu, 2021. "Temporal-spatial characteristics of storm surges and rough seas in coastal areas of Mainland China from 2000 to 2019," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(2), pages 1273-1285, June.
    9. Swen Jullien & Jérôme Aucan & Elodie Kestenare & Matthieu Lengaigne & Christophe Menkes, 2024. "Unveiling the global influence of tropical cyclones on extreme waves approaching coastal areas," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Karen C. Pazini & Jarbas Bonetti & Paula Gomes Silva & Antonio Henrique Fontoura Klein, 2022. "Spotting areas critical to storm waves and surge impacts on coasts with data scarcity: a case study in Santa Catarina, Brazil," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(3), pages 2493-2521, July.
    11. Kai Yin & Sudong Xu & Quan Zhao & Nini Zhang & Mengqi Li, 2021. "Effects of sea surface warming and sea-level rise on tropical cyclone and inundation modeling at Shanghai coast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 755-784, October.
    12. Maruyama Rentschler,Jun Erik & Avner,Paolo & Marconcini,Mattia & Su,Rui & Strano,Emanuele & Bernard,Louise Alice Karine & Riom,Capucine Anne Veronique & Hallegatte,Stephane, 2022. "Rapid Urban Growth in Flood Zones : Global Evidence since 1985," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10014, The World Bank.
    13. Michalis I. Vousdoukas & Joanne Clarke & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Lena Reimann & Nadia Khalaf & Trang Minh Duong & Birgitt Ouweneel & Salma Sabour & Carley E. Iles & Christopher H. Trisos & Luc Feyen & L, 2022. "African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(3), pages 256-262, March.
    14. Argyroudis, Sotirios A. & Mitoulis, Stergios Aristoteles, 2021. "Vulnerability of bridges to individual and multiple hazards- floods and earthquakes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    15. Niall Farrell & Stefano Ceolotto, 2024. "Keeping our heads above water: Spatially heterogeneous social vulnerabilities and climate adaptation," Papers WP771, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    16. Déborah Idier & Jérémy Rohmer & Rodrigo Pedreros & Sylvestre Roy & Jérome Lambert & Jessie Louisor & Gonéri Cozannet & Erwan Cornec, 2020. "Coastal flood: a composite method for past events characterisation providing insights in past, present and future hazards—joining historical, statistical and modelling approaches," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 101(2), pages 465-501, March.
    17. Ryan Paulik & Scott A. Stephens & Robert G. Bell & Sanjay Wadhwa & Ben Popovich, 2020. "National-Scale Built-Environment Exposure to 100-Year Extreme Sea Levels and Sea-Level Rise," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    18. Jian Shi & Xiangbo Feng & Ralf Toumi & Chi Zhang & Kevin I. Hodges & Aifeng Tao & Wei Zhang & Jinhai Zheng, 2024. "Global increase in tropical cyclone ocean surface waves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    19. Wayde C. Morse & Cody Cox & Christopher J. Anderson, 2020. "Using Public Participation Geographic Information Systems (PPGIS) to Identify Valued Landscapes Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-34, August.
    20. Jun Rentschler & Melda Salhab & Bramka Arga Jafino, 2022. "Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    21. Michalis I. Vousdoukas & Panagiotis Athanasiou & Alessio Giardino & Lorenzo Mentaschi & Alessandro Stocchino & Robert E. Kopp & Pelayo Menéndez & Michael W. Beck & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Luc Feyen, 2023. "Small Island Developing States under threat by rising seas even in a 1.5 °C warming world," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(12), pages 1552-1564, December.
    22. Xinmeng Shan & Jie Yin & Jun Wang, 2022. "Risk assessment of shanghai extreme flooding under the land use change scenario," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(2), pages 1039-1060, January.

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