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Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise

Author

Listed:
  • Carling C. Hay

    (Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University
    Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University)

  • Eric Morrow

    (Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University
    Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University)

  • Robert E. Kopp

    (Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University
    Rutgers Energy Institute, Rutgers University)

  • Jerry X. Mitrovica

    (Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University)

Abstract

A statistical reassessment of the tide gauge record concludes that sea level rose at a rate of about 1.2 millimetres per year from 1901 to 1990, slightly lower than prior estimates and now consistent with estimates based on individual contributions to sea-level change; the estimates reported here from 1990 onwards are consistent with other work, suggesting that the recent acceleration in sea-level rise is greater than previously thought.

Suggested Citation

  • Carling C. Hay & Eric Morrow & Robert E. Kopp & Jerry X. Mitrovica, 2015. "Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise," Nature, Nature, vol. 517(7535), pages 481-484, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:517:y:2015:i:7535:d:10.1038_nature14093
    DOI: 10.1038/nature14093
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    1. Ashley C. Freeman & Walker S. Ashley, 2017. "Changes in the US hurricane disaster landscape: the relationship between risk and exposure," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(2), pages 659-682, September.
    2. Sönke Dangendorf & Noah Hendricks & Qiang Sun & John Klinck & Tal Ezer & Thomas Frederikse & Francisco M. Calafat & Thomas Wahl & Torbjörn E. Törnqvist, 2023. "Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Annette Grilli & Malcolm L. Spaulding & Bryan A. Oakley & Chris Damon, 2017. "Mapping the coastal risk for the next century, including sea level rise and changes in the coastline: application to Charlestown RI, USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(1), pages 389-414, August.
    4. Jieming Chou & Mingyang Sun & Wenjie Dong & Weixing Zhao & Jiangnan Li & Yuanmeng Li & Jianyin Zhou, 2021. "Assessment and Prediction of Climate Risks in Three Major Urban Agglomerations of Eastern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-21, November.
    5. Le Bars, Dewi, 2018. "Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors," Earth Arxiv uvw3s, Center for Open Science.
    6. Eric Hillebrand & Søren Johansen & Torben Schmith, 2020. "Data Revisions and the Statistical Relation of Global Mean Sea Level and Surface Temperature," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-19, November.
    7. R. Dean Hardy & Bryan L. Nuse, 2016. "Global sea-level rise: weighing country responsibility and risk," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 333-345, August.
    8. Nerea Portillo Juan & Vicente Negro Valdecantos & Jose María del Campo, 2022. "Review of the Impacts of Climate Change on Ports and Harbours and Their Adaptation in Spain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-16, June.
    9. Kai Yin & Sudong Xu & Quan Zhao & Nini Zhang & Mengqi Li, 2021. "Effects of sea surface warming and sea-level rise on tropical cyclone and inundation modeling at Shanghai coast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 755-784, October.
    10. Yishu, Li, 2019. "A photovoltaic ecosystem: improving atmospheric environment and fighting regional poverty," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 69-79.
    11. Ming Li & Fan Zhang & Samuel Barnes & Xiaohong Wang, 2020. "Assessing storm surge impacts on coastal inundation due to climate change: case studies of Baltimore and Dorchester County in Maryland," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 2561-2588, September.
    12. Xiaoming Jin & Weixin Luan & Jun Yang & Chuang Tian, 2024. "Balanced and imbalanced: global population spatial mobility and economic patterns in coastal and interior areas," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, December.
    13. Jennifer S. Walker & Robert E. Kopp & Christopher M. Little & Benjamin P. Horton, 2022. "Timing of emergence of modern rates of sea-level rise by 1863," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    14. Chih-Min Hsieh & Dean Chou & Tai-Wen Hsu, 2022. "Using Modified Harmonic Analysis to Estimate the Trend of Sea-Level Rise around Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-17, June.
    15. Reza Marsooli & Ning Lin, 2020. "Impacts of climate change on hurricane flood hazards in Jamaica Bay, New York," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2153-2171, December.
    16. Hyeyun Ku & Jun Ho Maeng, 2021. "Extreme value analysis of the typhoon-induced surges on the coastal seas of South Korea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(1), pages 617-637, May.

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