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Future typhoon and storm surges under different global warming scenarios: case study of typhoon Haiyan (2013)

Author

Listed:
  • Ryota Nakamura

    (Waseda University)

  • Tomoya Shibayama

    (Waseda University)

  • Miguel Esteban

    (The University of Tokyo)

  • Takumu Iwamoto

    (Waseda University)

Abstract

The present work evaluates potential future typhoon and storm surges around the islands of Samar and Leyte in the Philippines taking into account monthly mean sea surface temperatures, atmospheric air temperature, and relative humidity (hereafter, SST, AAT, and RH) from MIROC5 according to four scenarios proposed by IPCC AR5. Super-typhoon Haiyan (2013), which caused catastrophic damage to coastal areas in the Philippines due to its high winds and storm surge, was used as the case study storm given that it was one of the tropical cyclones recorded in modern history. In this study, the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF) is used to estimate the characteristics of both the present-day Haiyan and a typhoon with a similar return period under the climate condition of the year 2100. The unstructured, Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) was used to estimate both the present and potential future storm surges. The research has two main focuses. First, both the historical event and its storm surge are simulated and contrasted with field measurements of the storm surge height in order to prove the accuracy of the model. Second, the future typhoon and storm surge are estimated using the monthly mean value differences in SST, AAT, and RH from MIROC5 between 2011–2020 and 2091–2100 for the different scenarios. The characteristics of the simulated typhoon route and storm surge heights agree well with those of the best track data and field measurements. The numerical results of the future typhoon show that, if climate change is considered to only increase SST, its intensity and storm surge will be larger than under the present climate. The minimum sea-level pressure (hereafter, MSLP) of the future typhoon under scenario RCP 8.5 would be about 21 hPa lower and the storm surge 2.7 m higher than in the present climate. However, if SST, AAT, and RH are also taken into account, then the increase in typhoon intensity will not be as marked as if only SST is considered, with the MSLP under RCP 8.5 decreasing only by 13 hPa and the storm surge increasing by 0.7 m. The results of the present research thus suggest that while increases in SST can contribute to the intensification of future typhoons, increases in AAT and RH will somehow moderate this effect. Nevertheless, all scenarios considered point out to stronger typhoons and higher storm surges, clearly highlighting the perils posed by future climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryota Nakamura & Tomoya Shibayama & Miguel Esteban & Takumu Iwamoto, 2016. "Future typhoon and storm surges under different global warming scenarios: case study of typhoon Haiyan (2013)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 1645-1681, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:82:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2259-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2259-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Mäll & Ryota Nakamura & Ülo Suursaar & Tomoya Shibayama, 2020. "Pseudo-climate modelling study on projected changes in extreme extratropical cyclones, storm waves and surges under CMIP5 multi-model ensemble: Baltic Sea perspective," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(1), pages 67-99, May.
    2. Sooncheol Hwang & Sangyoung Son & Chilwoo Lee & Hyun-Doug Yoon, 2020. "Quantitative assessment of inundation risks from physical contributors associated with future storm surges: a case study of Typhoon Maemi (2003)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1389-1411, November.
    3. Chengcheng Wan & Yafei Yan & Liucheng Shen & Jianli Liu & Xiaoxia Lai & Wei Qian & Juan Nie & Jiahong Wen, 2023. "Damage analysis of retired typhoons in mainland China from 2009 to 2019," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3225-3242, April.
    4. Johnny D. Dariagan & Ramil B. Atando & Jay Lord B. Asis, 2021. "Disaster preparedness of local governments in Panay Island, Philippines," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 1923-1944, January.
    5. Kai Yin & Sudong Xu & Quan Zhao & Nini Zhang & Mengqi Li, 2021. "Effects of sea surface warming and sea-level rise on tropical cyclone and inundation modeling at Shanghai coast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 755-784, October.
    6. Ezekiel Grant & Nikolaos Iliopoulos & Miguel Esteban & Motoharu Onuki, 2024. "A tale of two (Florida) cities: perceptions of flooding risk and adaptation in Tampa’s Hyde Park and Saint Augustine," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 29(8), pages 1-20, December.
    7. Jamero, Ma. Laurice & Esteban, Miguel & Chadwick, Christopher & Onuki, Motoharu, 2019. "Rethinking the Limits of Climate Change Adaptation," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 584, Asian Development Bank.
    8. Mohsen Soltanpour & Zahra Ranji & Tomoya Shibayama & Sarmad Ghader, 2021. "Tropical Cyclones in the Arabian Sea: overview and simulation of winds and storm-induced waves," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 711-732, August.
    9. Thit Oo Kyaw & Miguel Esteban & Martin Mäll & Tomoya Shibayama, 2021. "Extreme waves induced by cyclone Nargis at Myanmar coast: numerical modeling versus satellite observations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 1797-1818, April.
    10. Ryota Nakamura & Martin Mäll & Tomoya Shibayama, 2019. "Street-scale storm surge load impact assessment using fine-resolution numerical modelling: a case study from Nemuro, Japan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(1), pages 391-422, October.
    11. Martin Mäll & Ülo Suursaar & Ryota Nakamura & Tomoya Shibayama, 2017. "Modelling a storm surge under future climate scenarios: case study of extratropical cyclone Gudrun (2005)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(3), pages 1119-1144, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Haiyan; IPCC AR5; ARW-WRF; Typhoon; Storm surge; Global warming;
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