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Joint projections of US East Coast sea level and storm surge

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher M. Little

    (Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.)

  • Radley M. Horton

    (Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University and NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies)

  • Robert E. Kopp

    (Rutgers Energy Institute, and Institute of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University)

  • Michael Oppenheimer

    (Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
    Princeton University)

  • Gabriel A. Vecchi

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

  • Gabriele Villarini

    (IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering, The University of Iowa)

Abstract

Future coastal flood risk will be strongly influenced by sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. These two factors are generally considered independently. Here, we assess twenty-first century changes in the coastal hazard for the US East Coast using a flood index (FI) that accounts for changes in flood duration and magnitude driven by SLR and changes in power dissipation index (PDI, an integrated measure of tropical cyclone intensity, frequency and duration). Sea-level rise and PDI are derived from representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations of 15 atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). By 2080–2099, projected changes in the FI relative to 1986–2005 are substantial and positively skewed: a 10th–90th percentile range 4–75 times higher for RCP 2.6 and 35–350 times higher for RCP 8.5. High-end FI projections are driven by three AOGCMs that project the largest increases in SLR, PDI and upper ocean temperatures. Changes in PDI are particularly influential if their intra-model correlation with SLR is included, increasing the RCP 8.5 90th percentile FI by a further 25%. Sea-level rise from other, possibly correlated, climate processes (for example, ice sheet and glacier mass changes) will further increase coastal flood risk and should be accounted for in comprehensive assessments.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher M. Little & Radley M. Horton & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Gabriel A. Vecchi & Gabriele Villarini, 2015. "Joint projections of US East Coast sea level and storm surge," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(12), pages 1114-1120, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:5:y:2015:i:12:d:10.1038_nclimate2801
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2801
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Avantika Gori & Ning Lin & Dazhi Xi & Kerry Emanuel, 2022. "Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall–surge hazard," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(2), pages 171-178, February.
    2. Le Bars, Dewi, 2018. "Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors," Earth Arxiv uvw3s, Center for Open Science.
    3. Denis L. Volkov & Kate Zhang & William E. Johns & Joshua K. Willis & Will Hobbs & Marlos Goes & Hong Zhang & Dimitris Menemenlis, 2023. "Atlantic meridional overturning circulation increases flood risk along the United States southeast coast," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Swen Jullien & Jérôme Aucan & Elodie Kestenare & Matthieu Lengaigne & Christophe Menkes, 2024. "Unveiling the global influence of tropical cyclones on extreme waves approaching coastal areas," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Kai Yin & Sudong Xu & Quan Zhao & Nini Zhang & Mengqi Li, 2021. "Effects of sea surface warming and sea-level rise on tropical cyclone and inundation modeling at Shanghai coast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 755-784, October.
    6. Shi Xianwu & Han Ziqiang & Fang Jiayi & Tan Jun & Guo Zhixing & Sun Zhilin, 2020. "Assessment and zonation of storm surge hazards in the coastal areas of China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(1), pages 39-48, January.
    7. Pramod K. Singh & Konstantinos Papageorgiou & Harpalsinh Chudasama & Elpiniki I. Papageorgiou, 2019. "Evaluating the Effectiveness of Climate Change Adaptations in the World’s Largest Mangrove Ecosystem," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-17, November.
    8. D. J. Rasmussen & Scott Kulp & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2022. "Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-17, February.
    9. Robert L. Ceres & Chris E. Forest & Klaus Keller, 2017. "Understanding the detectability of potential changes to the 100-year peak storm surge," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 221-235, November.
    10. Karthik Balaguru & David R. Judi & L. Ruby Leung, 2016. "Future hurricane storm surge risk for the U.S. gulf and Florida coasts based on projections of thermodynamic potential intensity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 99-110, September.

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