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Anthropogenic influences on major tropical cyclone events

Author

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  • Christina M. Patricola

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

  • Michael F. Wehner

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

Abstract

There is no consensus on whether climate change has yet affected the statistics of tropical cyclones, owing to their large natural variability and the limited period of consistent observations. In addition, projections of future tropical cyclone activity are uncertain, because they often rely on coarse-resolution climate models that parameterize convection and hence have difficulty in directly representing tropical cyclones. Here we used convection-permitting regional climate model simulations to investigate whether and how recent destructive tropical cyclones would change if these events had occurred in pre-industrial and in future climates. We found that, relative to pre-industrial conditions, climate change so far has enhanced the average and extreme rainfall of hurricanes Katrina, Irma and Maria, but did not change tropical cyclone wind-speed intensity. In addition, future anthropogenic warming would robustly increase the wind speed and rainfall of 11 of 13 intense tropical cyclones (of 15 events sampled globally). Additional regional climate model simulations suggest that convective parameterization introduces minimal uncertainty into the sign of projected changes in tropical cyclone intensity and rainfall, which allows us to have confidence in projections from global models with parameterized convection and resolution fine enough to include tropical cyclones.

Suggested Citation

  • Christina M. Patricola & Michael F. Wehner, 2018. "Anthropogenic influences on major tropical cyclone events," Nature, Nature, vol. 563(7731), pages 339-346, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:563:y:2018:i:7731:d:10.1038_s41586-018-0673-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0673-2
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    13. Lauri Peterson, 2021. "Silver Lining to Extreme Weather Events? Democracy and Climate Change Mitigation," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 21(1), pages 23-53, Winter.
    14. Juan Antonio Torrents Arevalo, 2024. "Climate Change versus Economic Growth: Case of Greenhouse Apply a Study of European Union Countries and England from 2010 to 2019 Using Linear Regression and Neural Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-22, February.
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    16. Pierre Tulet & Bertrand Aunay & Guilhem Barruol & Christelle Barthe & Remi Belon & Soline Bielli & François Bonnardot & Olivier Bousquet & Jean-Pierre Cammas & Julien Cattiaux & Fabrice Chauvin & Idri, 2021. "ReNovRisk: a multidisciplinary programme to study the cyclonic risks in the South-West Indian Ocean," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(2), pages 1191-1223, June.
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