IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/masfgc/v23y2018i7d10.1007_s11027-017-9773-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Lessons learned from applying adaptation pathways in flood risk management and challenges for the further development of this approach

Author

Listed:
  • Pieter Bloemen

    (Staff Delta Programme Commissioner
    IHE Delft Institute for Water Education)

  • Tim Reeder

    (Southampton University)

  • Chris Zevenbergen

    (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education)

  • Jeroen Rijke

    (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education
    HAN University of Applied Sciences)

  • Ashley Kingsborough

    (University of Oxford)

Abstract

Worldwide, an increase in flood damage is observed. Governments are looking for effective ways to protect lives, buildings, and infrastructure. At the same time, a large investment gap seems to exist—a big difference between what should necessarily be done to curb the increase in damage and what is actually being done. Decision-makers involved in climate adaptation are facing fundamental (so-called deep) uncertainties. In the course of time, the scientific community has developed a wide range of different approaches for dealing with these uncertainties. One of these approaches, adaptation pathways, is gaining traction as a way of framing and informing climate adaptation. But research shows that “very little work has been done to evaluate the current use of adaptation pathways and its utility to practitioners and decision makers” (Lin et al. 2017, p. 387). With this paper, the authors, as action researchers and practitioners involved in two of the world’s largest real-life applications of this approach in flood risk management, aim to contribute to filling in that gap. Analysis of the experience in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands in long-term planning in flood risk management shows that the adaptation pathways approach is effective in keeping decision processes going forward, to the final approval of a long-term plan, and helps increase awareness about uncertainties. It contributes to political support for keeping long-term options open and motivates decision-makers to modify their plans to better accommodate future conditions. When it comes to implementing the plans, there are still some major challenges, yet to be addressed, amongst others: the timely detection of tipping points in situations with large natural variability, the inclusion of measures that prepare for a switch to transformational strategies, and the retention of commitment of regional and local authorities, non government organizations, and the private sector, to climate adaptation as national policies move from blueprint planning to adaptive plans. In delivering this feedback, the authors hope to motivate the scientific community to take on these challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Pieter Bloemen & Tim Reeder & Chris Zevenbergen & Jeroen Rijke & Ashley Kingsborough, 2018. "Lessons learned from applying adaptation pathways in flood risk management and challenges for the further development of this approach," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(7), pages 1083-1108, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:23:y:2018:i:7:d:10.1007_s11027-017-9773-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-017-9773-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11027-017-9773-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11027-017-9773-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luke Whaley & Edward Weatherhead, 2016. "Managing water through change and uncertainty: comparing lessons from the adaptive co-management literature to recent policy developments in England," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(10), pages 1775-1794, October.
    2. Warren E. Walker & Marjolijn Haasnoot & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2013. "Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-25, March.
    3. Claudia Pahl-Wostl, 2007. "Transitions towards adaptive management of water facing climate and global change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(1), pages 49-62, January.
    4. Hermans, Leon M. & Haasnoot, Marjolijn & ter Maat, Judith & Kwakkel, Jan H., 2017. "Designing monitoring arrangements for collaborative learning about adaptation pathways," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 29-38.
    5. Kirstin Dow & Frans Berkhout & Benjamin L. Preston & Richard J. T. Klein & Guy Midgley & M. Rebecca Shaw, 2013. "Limits to adaptation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 305-307, April.
    6. Marjolijn Haasnoot & Hans Middelkoop & Astrid Offermans & Eelco Beek & Willem Deursen, 2012. "Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 795-819, December.
    7. Pardeep Pall & Tolu Aina & Dáithí A. Stone & Peter A. Stott & Toru Nozawa & Arno G. J. Hilberts & Dag Lohmann & Myles R. Allen, 2011. "Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000," Nature, Nature, vol. 470(7334), pages 382-385, February.
    8. Derbyshire, James & Wright, George, 2017. "Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 254-266.
    9. J. Barnett & S. Graham & C. Mortreux & R. Fincher & E. Waters & A. Hurlimann, 2014. "A local coastal adaptation pathway," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(12), pages 1103-1108, December.
    10. Frans Klijn & Heidi Kreibich & Hans Moel & Edmund Penning-Rowsell, 2015. "Adaptive flood risk management planning based on a comprehensive flood risk conceptualisation," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 845-864, August.
    11. Chris Zevenbergen & Sebastiaan Herk & Jeroen Rijke & Pavel Kabat & Pieter Bloemen & Richard Ashley & Andrew Speers & Berry Gersonius & William Veerbeek, 2013. "Taming global flood disasters. Lessons learned from Dutch experience," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1217-1225, February.
    12. Lyons, Glenn & Davidson, Cody, 2016. "Guidance for transport planning and policymaking in the face of an uncertain future," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 104-116.
    13. Edmund Penning-Rowsell & Nick Haigh & Sarah Lavery & Loraine McFadden, 2013. "A threatened world city: the benefits of protecting London from the sea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(3), pages 1383-1404, April.
    14. Bos, Frits & Zwaneveld, Peter, 2017. "Cost-benefit analysis for flood risk management and water governance in the Netherlands; an overview of one century," MPRA Paper 80933, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Walker, Warren E. & Rahman, S. Adnan & Cave, Jonathan, 2001. "Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policy-making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 282-289, January.
    16. Hallegatte, Stephane & Shah, Ankur & Lempert, Robert & Brown, Casey & Gill, Stuart, 2012. "Investment decision making under deep uncertainty -- application to climate change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6193, The World Bank.
    17. de Haan, Fjalar J. & Ferguson, Briony C. & Adamowicz, Rachelle C. & Johnstone, Phillip & Brown, Rebekah R. & Wong, Tony H.F., 2014. "The needs of society: A new understanding of transitions, sustainability and liveability," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 121-132.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hyun Kim & David W. Marcouiller & Kyle Maurice Woosnam, 2021. "Multilevel Climate Governance, Anticipatory Adaptation, and the Vulnerability‐Readiness Nexus," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 38(2), pages 222-242, March.
    2. Théophile Bongarts Lebbe & Hélène Rey-Valette & Éric Chaumillon & Guigone Camus & Rafael Almar & Anny Cazenave & Joachim Claudet & Nicolas Rocle & Catherine Meur-Ferec & Frédérique Viard & Denis Merci, 2021. "Designing coastal adaptation strategies to tackle sea level rise," Post-Print hal-03412421, HAL.
    3. Stanton, Muriel C. Bonjean & Roelich, Katy, 2021. "Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the applicability of methods in practice," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    4. Anh Cao & Miguel Esteban & Takashi Mino, 2020. "Adapting wastewater treatment plants to sea level rise: learning from land subsidence in Tohoku, Japan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(1), pages 885-902, August.
    5. Vizinho, André & Avelar, David & Fonseca, Ana Lúcia & Carvalho, Silvia & Sucena-Paiva, Leonor & Pinho, Pedro & Nunes, Alice & Branquinho, Cristina & Vasconcelos, Ana Cátia & Santos, Filipe Duarte & Ro, 2021. "Framing the application of Adaptation Pathways for agroforestry in Mediterranean drylands," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    6. Babaeian, Fariba & Delavar, Majid & Morid, Saeed & Srinivasan, Raghavan, 2021. "Robust climate change adaptation pathways in agricultural water management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Judy Lawrence & Robert Bell & Adolf Stroombergen, 2019. "A Hybrid Process to Address Uncertainty and Changing Climate Risk in Coastal Areas Using Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis & Real Options Analysis: A New Zealand App," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, January.
    2. Stanton, Muriel C. Bonjean & Roelich, Katy, 2021. "Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the applicability of methods in practice," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    3. Maddalen Mendizabal & Nieves Peña & Hans Hooyberghs & Griet Lambrechts & Joel Sepúlveda & Saioa Zorita, 2021. "Lessons Learned from Applying Adaptation Pathways in Heatwave Risk Management in Antwerp and Key Challenges for Further Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-23, October.
    4. Dittrich, Ruth & Wreford, Anita & Moran, Dominic, 2016. "A survey of decision-making approaches for climate change adaptation: Are robust methods the way forward?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 79-89.
    5. Simona Mannucci & Federica Rosso & Alessandro D’Amico & Gabriele Bernardini & Michele Morganti, 2022. "Flood Resilience and Adaptation in the Built Environment: How Far along Are We?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-22, March.
    6. Luciano Raso & Jan Kwakkel & Jos Timmermans, 2019. "Assessing the Capacity of Adaptive Policy Pathways to Adapt on Time by Mapping Trigger Values to Their Outcomes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-16, March.
    7. Sierra C. Woodruff, 2016. "Planning for an unknowable future: uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 445-459, December.
    8. Fluixá-Sanmartín, Javier & Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio & Morales-Torres, Adrián & Castillo-Rodríguez, Jesica Tamara, 2020. "Comprehensive decision-making approach for managing time dependent dam risks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    9. Meng Meng & Marcin Dabrowski & Dominic Stead, 2020. "Enhancing Flood Resilience and Climate Adaptation: The State of the Art and New Directions for Spatial Planning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-23, September.
    10. Jan Kwakkel & Marjolijn Haasnoot & Warren Walker, 2015. "Developing dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(3), pages 373-386, October.
    11. Mohanasundar Radhakrishnan & Hong Quan Nguyen & Berry Gersonius & Assela Pathirana & Ky Quang Vinh & Richard M. Ashley & Chris Zevenbergen, 2018. "Coping capacities for improving adaptation pathways for flood protection in Can Tho, Vietnam," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(1), pages 29-41, July.
    12. Moallemi, Enayat A. & Elsawah, Sondoss & Ryan, Michael J., 2020. "Robust decision making and Epoch–Era analysis: A comparison of two robustness frameworks for decision-making under uncertainty," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    13. Mauricio Sánchez-Silva & Jack W. Baker, 2024. "Dynamic Infrastructure Systems: advancing sustainable urbanization and climate change," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 489-499, September.
    14. Christoffer Carstens & Karin Mossberg Sonnek & Riitta Räty & Per Wikman-Svahn & Annika Carlsson-Kanyama & Jonathan Metzger, 2019. "Insights from Testing a Modified Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways Approach for Spatial Planning at the Municipal Level," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-16, January.
    15. Malekpour, Shirin & de Haan, Fjalar J. & Brown, Rebekah R., 2016. "A methodology to enable exploratory thinking in strategic planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 192-202.
    16. Wil Thissen & Jan Kwakkel & Marjolein Mens & Jeroen Sluijs & Sara Stemberger & Arjan Wardekker & Diana Wildschut, 2017. "Dealing with Uncertainties in Fresh Water Supply: Experiences in the Netherlands," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(2), pages 703-725, January.
    17. Vizinho, André & Avelar, David & Fonseca, Ana Lúcia & Carvalho, Silvia & Sucena-Paiva, Leonor & Pinho, Pedro & Nunes, Alice & Branquinho, Cristina & Vasconcelos, Ana Cátia & Santos, Filipe Duarte & Ro, 2021. "Framing the application of Adaptation Pathways for agroforestry in Mediterranean drylands," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    18. Bethany Robinson & Jonathan D. Herman, 2019. "A framework for testing dynamic classification of vulnerable scenarios in ensemble water supply projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 431-448, March.
    19. Jannie Coenen & Rob van der Heijden & Allard C. R. van Riel, 2019. "Making a Transition toward more Mature Closed-Loop Supply Chain Management under Deep Uncertainty and Dynamic Complexity: A Methodology," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-27, April.
    20. Matteo Giuliani & Andrea Castelletti, 2016. "Is robustness really robust? How different definitions of robustness impact decision-making under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 409-424, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:23:y:2018:i:7:d:10.1007_s11027-017-9773-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.