Lessons Learned from Applying Adaptation Pathways in Heatwave Risk Management in Antwerp and Key Challenges for Further Development

Heat exposure is a well-known health hazard, which causes several problems ranging from thermal discomfort or productivity reduction to the aggravation of existing illnesses and death. Climate projections foresee an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat-related impacts on human health. To reduce these climate risks, governments need a better understanding of not only the scale and the factors affecting those risks, but also how to prepare and protect the city and citizens against these risks and prevent them through effective policy making. Therefore, climate adaptation decisions need to be made in complex systems with manifold uncertainties. In response to these deep uncertainties, different planning approaches have been developed to assist policymakers in decision making. This paper is focused on one of the dynamic adaptive policy planning approaches: the adaptation pathway. This approach allows designing alternative feasible plans that are flexible and can respond when new information appears or when conditions in the environment change. This paper presents a structured methodology for designing adaptation pathways. The work describes a high-level adaptation pathway covering heatwave impacts on productivity and health at city level in Antwerp to ensure the city adapts to future conditions. Lastly, a summary is provided of the lessons learned and the challenges of this approach are discussed.