IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v105y2016icp192-202.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A methodology to enable exploratory thinking in strategic planning

Author

Listed:
  • Malekpour, Shirin
  • de Haan, Fjalar J.
  • Brown, Rebekah R.

Abstract

It is widely accepted that the traditional predict-then-act approach to long-term planning for delivery of public services, such as energy, water or transportation, cannot withstand uncertainties and complexities associated with issues such as population growth, changing demands and climate change. In this regard, various planning approaches have been put forward by the scholarship as alternatives to the conventional model. The planning practice, however, is often following the path-dependent legacy of conventional approaches. This study puts forward a planning intervention, which can be plugged into conventional planning processes, as a way of building capacity for alternative planning approaches to take off. The intervention aims at enabling exploratory thinking within the planning process. Exploratory thinking considers alternative perspectives to planning issues, different from the well-established frames of reference, to potentially reveal some of the blind-spots in the business-as-usual planning. Trial application of the proposed intervention within the process of planning for development of a flood management strategy in Melbourne, Australia, provides propitious indications of widening the scope of thinking among the participants. Based on the achieved insights, a methodology for carrying out the proposed intervention is presented. The methodology would be relevant, and potentially useful, for both planning scholars and practitioners.

Suggested Citation

  • Malekpour, Shirin & de Haan, Fjalar J. & Brown, Rebekah R., 2016. "A methodology to enable exploratory thinking in strategic planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 192-202.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:105:y:2016:i:c:p:192-202
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.01.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516000135
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.01.012?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Warren E. Walker & Marjolijn Haasnoot & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2013. "Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-25, March.
    2. Steve Bankes, 1993. "Exploratory Modeling for Policy Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 41(3), pages 435-449, June.
    3. Kwakkel, Jan H. & Pruyt, Erik, 2013. "Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 419-431.
    4. Fabrice Roubelat, 2006. "Scenarios to challenge strategic paradigms: Lessons from 2025," Post-Print hal-02148887, HAL.
    5. Kwakkel, Jan H. & Auping, Willem L. & Pruyt, Erik, 2013. "Dynamic scenario discovery under deep uncertainty: The future of copper," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 789-800.
    6. Jan-Peter Voß & Adrian Smith & John Grin, 2009. "Designing long-term policy: rethinking transition management," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 42(4), pages 275-302, November.
    7. M. Haasnoot & H. Middelkoop & E. van Beek & W. P. A. van Deursen, 2011. "A method to develop sustainable water management strategies for an uncertain future," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 369-381, November.
    8. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Fuenfschilling, Lea & Truffer, Bernhard, 2014. "The structuration of socio-technical regimes—Conceptual foundations from institutional theory," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 772-791.
    10. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    11. Hugo Priemus, 2007. "Development and Design of Large Infrastructure Projects: Disregarded Alternatives and Issues of Spatial Planning," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 34(4), pages 626-644, August.
    12. Walker, Warren E. & Rahman, S. Adnan & Cave, Jonathan, 2001. "Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policy-making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 282-289, January.
    13. de Haan, Fjalar J. & Ferguson, Briony C. & Adamowicz, Rachelle C. & Johnstone, Phillip & Brown, Rebekah R. & Wong, Tony H.F., 2014. "The needs of society: A new understanding of transitions, sustainability and liveability," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 121-132.
    14. Wright, George & Goodwin, Paul, 2009. "Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: Enhancing the scenario method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 813-825, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zivkovic, Marija & Pereverza, Kateryna & Pasichnyi, Oleksii & Madzarevic, Aleksandar & Ivezic, Dejan & Kordas, Olga, 2016. "Exploring scenarios for more sustainable heating: The case of Niš, Serbia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P3), pages 1758-1770.
    2. Jarrod Grainger-Brown & Shirin Malekpour, 2019. "Implementing the Sustainable Development Goals: A Review of Strategic Tools and Frameworks Available to Organisations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, March.
    3. Moallemi, Enayat A. & de Haan, Fjalar & Kwakkel, Jan & Aye, Lu, 2017. "Narrative-informed exploratory analysis of energy transition pathways: A case study of India's electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 271-287.
    4. Viera, Oscar & Malekpour, Shirin, 2020. "An analysis of adaptive planning capacity: The case of chilean water utilities," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Stanton, Muriel C. Bonjean & Roelich, Katy, 2021. "Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the applicability of methods in practice," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Moallemi, Enayat A. & de Haan, Fjalar & Kwakkel, Jan & Aye, Lu, 2017. "Narrative-informed exploratory analysis of energy transition pathways: A case study of India's electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 271-287.
    2. Ram, Camelia, 2020. "Scenario presentation and scenario generation in multi-criteria assessments: An exploratory study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. Luciano Raso & Jan Kwakkel & Jos Timmermans, 2019. "Assessing the Capacity of Adaptive Policy Pathways to Adapt on Time by Mapping Trigger Values to Their Outcomes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-16, March.
    4. B. Gersonius & J. Rijke & R. Ashley & P. Bloemen & E. Kelder & C. Zevenbergen, 2016. "Adaptive Delta Management for flood risk and resilience in Dordrecht, The Netherlands," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(2), pages 201-216, June.
    5. Shirin Malekpour & Rebekah R Brown & Fjalar J de Haan, 2017. "Disruptions in strategic infrastructure planning – What do they mean for sustainable development?," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 35(7), pages 1285-1303, November.
    6. Erik Pruyt & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2014. "Radicalization under deep uncertainty: a multi-model exploration of activism, extremism, and terrorism," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 30(1-2), pages 1-28, January.
    7. Ralf Elbert & Lowis Seikowsky, 2017. "The influences of behavioral biases, barriers and facilitators on the willingness of forwarders’ decision makers to modal shift from unimodal road freight transport to intermodal road–rail freight tra," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 87(8), pages 1083-1123, November.
    8. Hidayatno, Akhmad & Jafino, Bramka Arga & Setiawan, Andri D. & Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu, 2020. "When and why does transition fail? A model-based identification of adoption barriers and policy vulnerabilities for transition to natural gas vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    9. Seyed Ahmad Reza Mir Mohammadi Kooshknow & Rob den Exter & Franco Ruzzenenti, 2020. "An Exploratory Agent-Based Modeling Analysis Approach to Test Business Models for Electricity Storage," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-14, April.
    10. Pieter Bloemen & Tim Reeder & Chris Zevenbergen & Jeroen Rijke & Ashley Kingsborough, 2018. "Lessons learned from applying adaptation pathways in flood risk management and challenges for the further development of this approach," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(7), pages 1083-1108, October.
    11. Julie Shortridge & Seth Guikema & Ben Zaitchik, 2017. "Robust decision making in data scarce contexts: addressing data and model limitations for infrastructure planning under transient climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 323-337, January.
    12. Jan Kwakkel & Marjolijn Haasnoot & Warren Walker, 2015. "Developing dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(3), pages 373-386, October.
    13. Eker, Sibel & van Daalen, Els, 2015. "A model-based analysis of biomethane production in the Netherlands and the effectiveness of the subsidization policy under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 178-196.
    14. Marjolijn Haasnoot & Hans Middelkoop & Astrid Offermans & Eelco Beek & Willem Deursen, 2012. "Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 795-819, December.
    15. Moallemi, Enayat A. & Elsawah, Sondoss & Ryan, Michael J., 2020. "Robust decision making and Epoch–Era analysis: A comparison of two robustness frameworks for decision-making under uncertainty," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    16. Simona Mannucci & Federica Rosso & Alessandro D’Amico & Gabriele Bernardini & Michele Morganti, 2022. "Flood Resilience and Adaptation in the Built Environment: How Far along Are We?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-22, March.
    17. Luciano Raso & Jan Kwakkel & Jos Timmermans & Geremy Panthou, 2019. "How to evaluate a monitoring system for adaptive policies: criteria for signposts selection and their model-based evaluation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 267-283, March.
    18. David C. Lane & Özge Pala & Yaman Barlas & Willem L. Auping & Erik Pruyt & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2015. "Societal Ageing in the Netherlands: A Robust System Dynamics Approach," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 485-501, July.
    19. Steinmann, Patrick & Auping, Willem L. & Kwakkel, Jan H., 2020. "Behavior-based scenario discovery using time series clustering," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    20. Michas, Serafeim & Stavrakas, Vassilis & Papadelis, Sotiris & Flamos, Alexandros, 2020. "A transdisciplinary modeling framework for the participatory design of dynamic adaptive policy pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:105:y:2016:i:c:p:192-202. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.