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Dealing with Uncertainties in Fresh Water Supply: Experiences in the Netherlands

Author

Listed:
  • Wil Thissen

    (Delft University of Technology
    UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education)

  • Jan Kwakkel

    (Delft University of Technology)

  • Marjolein Mens

    (Department of Flood and Drought Risk Analysis
    Twente University)

  • Jeroen Sluijs

    (University of Bergen
    Utrecht University)

  • Sara Stemberger

    (University of Bergen)

  • Arjan Wardekker

    (University of Bergen)

  • Diana Wildschut

    (University of Bergen
    Cooperative University of Amersfoort)

Abstract

Developing fresh water supply strategies for the long term needs to take into account the fact that the future is deeply uncertain. Not only the extent of climate change and the extent and nature of its impacts are unknown, also socio-economic conditions may change in unpredictable ways, as well as social preferences. Often, it is not possible to find solid ground for estimating probabilities for the relevant range of imaginable possible future developments. Yet, some of these may have profound impacts and consequences for society which could be reduced by timely proactive adaptation. In response to these and similar challenges, various approaches, methods and techniques have been proposed and are being developed to specifically address long-term strategy development under so-called deep uncertainty. This paper, first, offers a brief overview of developments in the field of planning under (deep) uncertainty. Next, we illustrate application of three different approaches to fresh water provision planning under uncertainty in case studies in the Netherlands: a resilience approach, oriented to (re) designing fresh water systems in such a way that they will be less vulnerable, resp. will be able to recover easily from future disturbances; a robustness approach, oriented to quantitative assessment of system performance for various system configurations (adaptation options) under a range of external disturbances, and an exploratory modeling approach, developed to explore policy effectiveness and system operation under a very wide set of assumptions about future conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Wil Thissen & Jan Kwakkel & Marjolein Mens & Jeroen Sluijs & Sara Stemberger & Arjan Wardekker & Diana Wildschut, 2017. "Dealing with Uncertainties in Fresh Water Supply: Experiences in the Netherlands," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(2), pages 703-725, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11269-015-1198-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-015-1198-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Warren E. Walker & Marjolijn Haasnoot & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2013. "Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-25, March.
    2. Marjolijn Haasnoot & Hans Middelkoop & Astrid Offermans & Eelco Beek & Willem Deursen, 2012. "Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 795-819, December.
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    4. Hamarat, Caner & Kwakkel, Jan H. & Pruyt, Erik, 2013. "Adaptive Robust Design under deep uncertainty," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 408-418.
    5. Barnett, Jon, 2001. "Adapting to Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: The Problem of Uncertainty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 977-993, June.
    6. Jonathan, Cave & Lorenzo, Valeri, 2004. "Cyber-Trust," MPRA Paper 83192, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Walker, Warren E. & Rahman, S. Adnan & Cave, Jonathan, 2001. "Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policy-making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 282-289, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. J. J. Warmink & M. Brugnach & J. Vinke-de Kruijf & R. M. J. Schielen & D. C. M. Augustijn, 2017. "Coping with Uncertainty in River Management: Challenges and Ways Forward," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(14), pages 4587-4600, November.
    2. Bárbara Brzezinski Azevedo & Tarcísio Abreu Saurin, 2018. "Losses in Water Distribution Systems: A Complexity Theory Perspective," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(9), pages 2919-2936, July.
    3. Xiaohui Ding & Chen Zhou & Weizhou Zhong & Pingping Tang, 2019. "Addressing Uncertainty of Environmental Governance in Environmentally Sensitive Areas in Developing Countries: A Precise-Strike and Spatial-Targeting Adaptive Governance Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-34, August.
    4. Maartje Bodde & Karin Van der Wel & Peter Driessen & Arjan Wardekker & Hens Runhaar, 2018. "Strategies for Dealing with Uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment: An Analytical Framework Illustrated with Case Studies from The Netherlands," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-24, July.

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