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A Hybrid Process to Address Uncertainty and Changing Climate Risk in Coastal Areas Using Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis & Real Options Analysis: A New Zealand Application

Author

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  • Judy Lawrence

    (New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington 6140, New Zealand)

  • Robert Bell

    (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Hamilton 3216, New Zealand)

  • Adolf Stroombergen

    (Infometrics, Wellington 6146, New Zealand)

Abstract

Decision makers face challenges in coastal areas about how to address the effects of ongoing and uncertain sea-level rise. Dynamic adaptive pathways planning (DAPP) and Real Options Analysis (ROA) can support decision makers to address irreducible uncertainties in coastal areas. This paper sets out what we learned by complementing multi-criteria decision analysis with DAPP and ROA when developing a 100-year coastal adaptation strategy in Hawke’s Bay, New Zealand. Lessons include the value of collaborative community and decision maker processes for increasing understanding about the changing risk over time, and the need to take early actions that enable a shift in pathway before those actions become ineffective. Modifications to the methods highlighted the importance of using several plausible scenarios for stress-testing options; considering costs and consent-ability early, to avoid the perception that hard protection will last; which criteria are appropriate for communities to assess; and making many pathways visible for future decision makers. We learned about the difficulties shifting thinking from short-term protection actions to longer-term anticipatory strategies. We found that a pathways system will require ongoing political leadership and governance with monitoring systems that can manage the adaptive process over long timeframes, by governments and their constituent communities.

Suggested Citation

  • Judy Lawrence & Robert Bell & Adolf Stroombergen, 2019. "A Hybrid Process to Address Uncertainty and Changing Climate Risk in Coastal Areas Using Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis & Real Options Analysis: A New Zealand App," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:2:p:406-:d:197693
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Myung-Jin Kim & Robert J. Nicholls & John M. Preston & Gustavo A. Almeida, 2022. "Evaluation of flexibility in adaptation projects for climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 1-17, March.
    2. Théophile Bongarts Lebbe & Hélène Rey-Valette & Éric Chaumillon & Guigone Camus & Rafael Almar & Anny Cazenave & Joachim Claudet & Nicolas Rocle & Catherine Meur-Ferec & Frédérique Viard & Denis Merci, 2021. "Designing coastal adaptation strategies to tackle sea level rise," Post-Print hal-03412421, HAL.
    3. Ryan Paulik & Scott A. Stephens & Robert G. Bell & Sanjay Wadhwa & Ben Popovich, 2020. "National-Scale Built-Environment Exposure to 100-Year Extreme Sea Levels and Sea-Level Rise," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.

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