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Adaptive flood risk management planning based on a comprehensive flood risk conceptualisation

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Listed:
  • Frans Klijn
  • Heidi Kreibich
  • Hans Moel
  • Edmund Penning-Rowsell

Abstract

Densely populated deltas are so vulnerable to sea level rise and climate change that they cannot wait for global mitigation to become effective. The Netherlands therefore puts huge efforts in adaptation research and planning for the future, for example through the national research programme Knowledge for Climate and the Delta Programme for the Twenty-first century. Flood risk is one of the key issues addressed in both programmes. Adaptive management planning should rely on a sound ex-ante policy analysis which encompasses a future outlook, establishing whether a policy transition is required, an assessment of alternative flood risk management strategies, and their planning in anticipation without running the risk of regret of doing too little too late or too much too early. This endeavour, addressed as adaptive delta management, calls for new approaches, especially because of uncertainties about long-term future developments. For flood risk management, it also entails reconsideration of the underlying principles and of the application of portfolios of technical measures versus spatial planning and other policy instruments. To this end, we first developed a conceptualisation of flood risk which reconciles the different approaches of flood defence management practice and spatial planning practice in order to bridge the gap between these previously detached fields. Secondly, we looked abroad in order to be better able to reflect critically on a possible Dutch bias which could have resulted from many centuries of experience of successful adaptation to increasing flood risk, but which may no longer be sustainable into the future. In this paper, we explain the multiple conceptualisation of flood risk and argue that explicitly distinguishing exposure determinants as a new concept may help to bridge the gap between engineers and spatial planners, wherefore we show how their different conceptualisations influence the framing of the adaptation challenge. Also, we identify what the Netherlands may learn from neighbouring countries with a different framing of the future flood risk challenge. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Frans Klijn & Heidi Kreibich & Hans Moel & Edmund Penning-Rowsell, 2015. "Adaptive flood risk management planning based on a comprehensive flood risk conceptualisation," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 845-864, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:20:y:2015:i:6:p:845-864
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-015-9638-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anne Nillesen & Matthijs Kok, 2015. "An integrated approach to flood risk management and spatial quality for a Netherlands’ river polder area," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 949-966, August.
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    3. Frans Klijn & Marjolein Mens & Nathalie Asselman, 2015. "Flood risk management for an uncertain future: economic efficiency and system robustness perspectives compared for the Meuse River (Netherlands)," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 1011-1026, August.
    4. Joep Keijsers & Alessio Giardino & Ate Poortinga & Jan Mulder & Michel Riksen & Giorgio Santinelli, 2015. "Adaptation strategies to maintain dunes as flexible coastal flood defense in The Netherlands," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 913-928, August.
    5. Vana Tsimopoulou & Matthijs Kok & Johannes Vrijling, 2015. "Economic optimization of flood prevention systems in the Netherlands," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 891-912, August.
    6. Heidi Kreibich & Philip Bubeck & Mathijs Vliet & Hans Moel, 2015. "A review of damage-reducing measures to manage fluvial flood risks in a changing climate," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 967-989, August.
    7. H. Moel & B. Jongman & H. Kreibich & B. Merz & E. Penning-Rowsell & P. Ward, 2015. "Flood risk assessments at different spatial scales," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 865-890, August.
    8. Jantsje Loon-Steensma, 2015. "Salt marshes to adapt the flood defences along the Dutch Wadden Sea coast," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 929-948, August.
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    1. Frans Klijn & Marjolein Mens & Nathalie Asselman, 2015. "Flood risk management for an uncertain future: economic efficiency and system robustness perspectives compared for the Meuse River (Netherlands)," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 1011-1026, August.
    2. Timo Assmuth & Tanja Dubrovin & Jari Lyytimäki, 2020. "Human health in systemic adaptation to climate change: insights from flood risk management in a river basin," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 427-443, September.
    3. H. Moel & B. Jongman & H. Kreibich & B. Merz & E. Penning-Rowsell & P. Ward, 2015. "Flood risk assessments at different spatial scales," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 865-890, August.
    4. Beheshtian, Arash & Donaghy, Kieran P. & Richard Geddes, R. & Oliver Gao, H., 2018. "Climate-adaptive planning for the long-term resilience of transportation energy infrastructure," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 99-122.
    5. Indira Pokhrel & Ajay Kalra & Md Mafuzur Rahaman & Ranjeet Thakali, 2020. "Forecasting of Future Flooding and Risk Assessment under CMIP6 Climate Projection in Neuse River, North Carolina," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-23, August.
    6. Assela Pathirana & Mohanasundar Radhakrishnan & Richard Ashley & Nguyen Hong Quan & Chris Zevenbergen, 2018. "Managing urban water systems with significant adaptation deficits—unified framework for secondary cities: part II—the practice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(1), pages 57-74, July.
    7. Jie Song & Xinyu Fu & Ruoniu Wang & Zhong-Ren Peng & Zongni Gu, 2018. "Does planned retreat matter? Investigating land use change under the impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 703-733, June.
    8. Pieter Bloemen & Tim Reeder & Chris Zevenbergen & Jeroen Rijke & Ashley Kingsborough, 2018. "Lessons learned from applying adaptation pathways in flood risk management and challenges for the further development of this approach," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(7), pages 1083-1108, October.
    9. Tobias Sieg & Thomas Schinko & Kristin Vogel & Reinhard Mechler & Bruno Merz & Heidi Kreibich, 2019. "Integrated assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts including uncertainty quantification," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-21, April.
    10. K. Söderholm & M. Pihlajamäki & T. Dubrovin & N. Veijalainen & B. Vehviläinen & M. Marttunen, 2018. "Collaborative Planning in Adaptive Flood Risk Management under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(4), pages 1383-1397, March.
    11. Meho Saša Kovačević & Lovorka Librić & Gordana Ivoš & Anita Cerić, 2020. "Application of Reliability Analysis for Risk Ranking in a Levee Reconstruction Project," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, February.
    12. Robert Stojanov & Barbora Duží & Tomáš Daněk & Daniel Němec & David Procházka, 2015. "Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Extremes in Central Europe: A Case Study in a Rural Area in the Czech Republic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-29, September.
    13. Angela Connelly & Jeremy Carter & John Handley & Stephen Hincks, 2018. "Enhancing the Practical Utility of Risk Assessments in Climate Change Adaptation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-12, May.

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