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A global analysis of residential heating and cooling service demand and cost-effective energy consumption under different climate change scenarios up to 2050

Author

Listed:
  • Keii Gi

    (Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth)

  • Fuminori Sano

    (Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth)

  • Ayami Hayashi

    (Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth)

  • Toshimasa Tomoda

    (Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth)

  • Keigo Akimoto

    (Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth)

Abstract

Climate change and energy service demand exert influence on each other through temperature change and greenhouse gas emissions. We have consistently evaluated global residential thermal demand and energy consumption up to the year 2050 under different climate change scenarios. We first constructed energy service demand intensity (energy service demand per household) functions for each of three services (space heating, space cooling, and water heating). The space heating and cooling demand in 2050 in the world as a whole become 2.1–2.3 and 3.8–4.5 times higher than the figures for 2010, whose ranges are originated from different global warming scenarios. Cost-effective residential energy consumption to satisfy service demand until 2050 was analyzed keeping consistency among different socio-economic conditions, ambient temperature, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission pathways using a global energy assessment model. Building shell improvement and fuel fuel-type transition reduce global final energy consumption for residential thermal heating by 30% in 2050 for a 2 °C target scenario. This study demonstrates that climate change affects residential space heating and cooling demand by regions, and their desirable strategies for cost-effective energy consumption depend on the global perspectives on CO2 emission reduction. Building shell improvement and energy efficiency improvement and fuel fuel-type transition of end-use technologies are considered to be robust measures for residential thermal demand under uncertain future CO2 emission pathways.

Suggested Citation

  • Keii Gi & Fuminori Sano & Ayami Hayashi & Toshimasa Tomoda & Keigo Akimoto, 2018. "A global analysis of residential heating and cooling service demand and cost-effective energy consumption under different climate change scenarios up to 2050," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 51-79, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:23:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11027-016-9728-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-016-9728-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fajardy, M. & Reiner, D M., 2020. "An overview of the electrification of residential and commercial heating and cooling and prospects for decarbonisation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20120, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Sol Kim & Sungwon Jung & Seung-Man Baek, 2019. "A Model for Predicting Energy Usage Pattern Types with Energy Consumption Information According to the Behaviors of Single-Person Households in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, January.
    3. Bass, Brett & New, Joshua, 2023. "How will United States commercial building energy use be impacted by IPCC climate scenarios?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    4. Ciulla, G. & D'Amico, A., 2019. "Building energy performance forecasting: A multiple linear regression approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Minkyu Kim & Chankook Park, 2021. "Academic Topics Related to Household Energy Consumption Using the Future Sign Detection Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-24, December.
    6. Zou, Chenchen & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & You, Kairui & Zhang, Shufan, 2023. "Toward carbon free by 2060: A decarbonization roadmap of operational residential buildings in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    7. Ma, Meiyan & Tang, Xu & Shi, Changning & Wang, Min & Li, Xinying & Luo, Pengfei & Zhang, Baosheng, 2023. "Roadmap towards clean and low-carbon heating to 2060: The case of northern urban region in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).

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