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Assessment of projected temperature impacts from climate change on the U.S. electric power sector using the Integrated Planning Model®

Author

Listed:
  • Jaglom, Wendy S.
  • McFarland, James R.
  • Colley, Michelle F.
  • Mack, Charlotte B.
  • Venkatesh, Boddu
  • Miller, Rawlings L.
  • Haydel, Juanita
  • Schultz, Peter A.
  • Perkins, Bill
  • Casola, Joseph H.
  • Martinich, Jeremy A.
  • Cross, Paul
  • Kolian, Michael J.
  • Kayin, Serpil

Abstract

This study analyzes the potential impacts of changes in temperature due to climate change on the U.S. power sector, measuring the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of power system changes due to temperature changes under two emissions trajectories—with and without emissions mitigation. It estimates the impact of temperature change on heating and cooling degree days, electricity demand, and generating unit output and efficiency. These effects are then integrated into a dispatch and capacity planning model to estimate impacts on investment decisions, emissions, system costs, and power prices for 32 U.S. regions. Without mitigation actions, total annual electricity production costs in 2050 are projected to increase 14% ($51 billion) because of greater cooling demand as compared to a control scenario without future temperature changes. For a scenario with global emissions mitigation, including a reduction in U.S. power sector emissions of 36% below 2005 levels in 2050, the increase in total annual electricity production costs is approximately the same as the increase in system costs to satisfy the increased demand associated with unmitigated rising temperatures.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaglom, Wendy S. & McFarland, James R. & Colley, Michelle F. & Mack, Charlotte B. & Venkatesh, Boddu & Miller, Rawlings L. & Haydel, Juanita & Schultz, Peter A. & Perkins, Bill & Casola, Joseph H. & M, 2014. "Assessment of projected temperature impacts from climate change on the U.S. electric power sector using the Integrated Planning Model®," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 524-539.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:73:y:2014:i:c:p:524-539
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.04.032
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    4. Cohen, Stuart M. & Dyreson, Ana & Turner, Sean & Tidwell, Vince & Voisin, Nathalie & Miara, Ariel, 2022. "A multi-model framework for assessing long- and short-term climate influences on the electric grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    5. Lamperti, F. & Dosi, G. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2020. "Climate change and green transitions in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    6. Salisu, Afees A. & Ayinde, Taofeek O., 2016. "Modeling energy demand: Some emerging issues," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1470-1480.
    7. Simone Lucatello & Roberto Sánchez, 2022. "Climate Change in North America: Risks, Impacts, and Adaptation. A Reflection Based on the IPCC Report AR6 - 2022," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 17(4), pages 1-18, Octubre -.
    8. Klimenko, V.V. & Fedotova, E.V. & Tereshin, A.G., 2018. "Vulnerability of the Russian power industry to the climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 1010-1022.
    9. Jianhua Huang & Kevin Robert Gurney, 2016. "Impact of climate change on U.S. building energy demand: sensitivity to spatiotemporal scales, balance point temperature, and population distribution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 171-185, July.
    10. Huang, Jianhua & Gurney, Kevin Robert, 2016. "The variation of climate change impact on building energy consumption to building type and spatiotemporal scale," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 137-153.
    11. Zhang, Xiaodong & Patino-Echeverri, Dalia & Li, Mingquan & Wu, Libo, 2022. "A review of publicly available data sources for models to study renewables integration in China's power system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    12. Zirogiannis, Nikolaos & Simon, Daniel H. & Hollingsworth, Alex J., 2020. "Estimating co-pollutant benefits from climate change policies in the electricity sector: A regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    13. Kyle Lesinger & Di Tian & Courtney P. Leisner & Alvaro Sanz-Saez, 2020. "Impact of climate change on storage conditions for major agricultural commodities across the contiguous United States," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1287-1305, October.
    14. Keii Gi & Fuminori Sano & Ayami Hayashi & Toshimasa Tomoda & Keigo Akimoto, 2018. "A global analysis of residential heating and cooling service demand and cost-effective energy consumption under different climate change scenarios up to 2050," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 51-79, January.
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