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Detection, attribution, and specifying mechanisms of hydrological changes in geographically different river basins

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  • Alexander Gelfan

    (Water Problems Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences
    Lomonosov Moscow State University)

  • Andrey Kalugin

    (Water Problems Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • Inna Krylenko

    (Water Problems Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences
    Lomonosov Moscow State University)

Abstract

Our study is aimed at detection of directional trends in streamflow data observed in large rivers located in different climatic zones and attribution of the detected changes to climate drivers. We consider detection and attribution as interrelated study stages within a suggested hypothesis testing framework with the use of a hydrological model. First, we test the significance of the trends in the observed streamflow data series of 74 to 82 years long and evaluate the model’s ability to reproduce the trends, so that the trends in the simulated data are statistically indistinguishable from the corresponding observed trends. Herewith, the model is forced by the reanalysis climate data. Then, for the basins where the model reproduces the trends, we move to the attribution stage of the study. At this stage, the hydrological model is forced by the counterfactual (detrended) climate data. If the trend is not detected in the counterfactual-climate-forced simulations, we conclude that the detected observed changes are likely to be attributed to the climate trend. The suggested testing procedure is applied for four river basins: Lena, Selenga, Vyatka, and Pechora. The corresponding hydrological models are developed on the basis of the ECOMAG modeling platform. We conclude that the detected trends in the observed annual flow data series for the Lena, Selenga, and Vyatka rivers, as well as the trends in high flow for the Lena and Selenga rivers, can be attributed to climate drivers with a high confidence. Regional differences in basin mechanisms governing the detected changes are analyzed.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Gelfan & Andrey Kalugin & Inna Krylenko, 2023. "Detection, attribution, and specifying mechanisms of hydrological changes in geographically different river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(9), pages 1-21, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:9:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03557-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03557-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Iman Mallakpour & Gabriele Villarini, 2015. "The changing nature of flooding across the central United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(3), pages 250-254, March.
    2. Alexander Gelfan & David Gustafsson & Yury Motovilov & Berit Arheimer & Andrey Kalugin & Inna Krylenko & Alexander Lavrenov, 2017. "Climate change impact on the water regime of two great Arctic rivers: modeling and uncertainty issues," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 499-515, April.
    3. A. N. Pettitt, 1979. "A Non‐Parametric Approach to the Change‐Point Problem," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 28(2), pages 126-135, June.
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    1. Iulii Didovets & Valentina Krysanova & Aliya Nurbatsina & Bijan Fallah & Viktoriya Krylova & Assel Saparova & Jafar Niyazov & Olga Kalashnikova & Fred Fokko Hattermann, 2024. "Attribution of current trends in streamflow to climate change for 12 Central Asian catchments," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-20, January.

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