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Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability

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  • Wenhao Dong

    (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
    NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

  • Yi Ming

    (Boston College)

  • Yi Deng

    (Georgia Institute of Technology)

  • Zhaoyi Shen

    (California Institute of Technology)

Abstract

The Taklamakan and Gobi Desert (TGD) region has experienced a pronounced increase in summer precipitation, including high-impact extreme events, over recent decades. Despite identifying large-scale circulation changes as a key driver of the wetting trend, understanding the relative contributions of internal variability and external forcings remains limited. Here, we approach this problem by using a hierarchy of numerical simulations, complemented by diverse statistical analysis tools. Our results offer strong evidence that the atmospheric internal variations primarily drive this observed trend. Specifically, recent changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation have redirected the storm track, leading to increased extratropical storms entering TGD and subsequently more precipitation. A clustering analysis further demonstrates that these linkages predominantly operate at the synoptic scale, with larger contributions from large precipitation events. Our analysis highlights the crucial role of internal variability, in addition to anthropogenic forcing, when seeking a comprehensive understanding of future precipitation trends in TGD.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenhao Dong & Yi Ming & Yi Deng & Zhaoyi Shen, 2024. "Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-48743-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48743-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clara Deser & Reto Knutti & Susan Solomon & Adam S. Phillips, 2012. "Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(11), pages 775-779, November.
    2. Annina Sorg & Tobias Bolch & Markus Stoffel & Olga Solomina & Martin Beniston, 2012. "Climate change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan (Central Asia)," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(10), pages 725-731, October.
    3. Olli Varis, 2014. "Resources: Curb vast water use in central Asia," Nature, Nature, vol. 514(7520), pages 27-29, October.
    4. Clara Deser & Reto Knutti & Susan Solomon & Adam S. Phillips, 2012. "Erratum: Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(12), pages 888-888, December.
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