IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v176y2023i8d10.1007_s10584-023-03577-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multi-criteria analysis for rapid vulnerability assessment of marine species to climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Curtis Champion

    (Fisheries Research, NSW Department of Primary Industries
    Southern Cross University, National Marine Science Centre)

  • James R. Lawson

    (Climate Branch, NSW Department of Primary Industries)

  • Joanna Pardoe

    (Climate Branch, NSW Department of Primary Industries)

  • Derrick O. Cruz

    (University of New South Wales
    Sydney Institute of Marine Science)

  • Ashley M. Fowler

    (Fisheries Research, NSW Department of Primary Industries)

  • Fabrice Jaine

    (Sydney Institute of Marine Science
    Macquarie University)

  • Hayden T. Schilling

    (Fisheries Research, NSW Department of Primary Industries
    University of New South Wales
    Sydney Institute of Marine Science)

  • Melinda A. Coleman

    (Fisheries Research, NSW Department of Primary Industries
    Southern Cross University, National Marine Science Centre)

Abstract

The accelerating pace of climate-induced stress to global ecosystems threatens the sustainable management and conservation of biodiversity. To effectively respond, researchers and managers require rapid vulnerability assessment tools that can be readily implemented using diverse and existing knowledge sources. Here we demonstrate the application of multi-criteria analysis (MCA) for this purpose using a group of coastal-pelagic fishes from south-eastern Australia as a case-study. We show that MCA has the capacity to formally structure diverse knowledge sources, ranging from peer-reviewed information (which informed 29.2% of criteria among models) to expert knowledge (which informed 22.6% of criteria among models), to quantify the sensitivity of species to biophysical conditions. By integrating MCA models with spatial climate data over historical and future periods, we demonstrate the application of MCA for rapidly assessing the vulnerability of marine species to climate change. Spatial analyses revealed an apparent trend among case-study species towards increasing or stable vulnerability to projected climate change throughout the northern (i.e. equatorward) extent of the study domain and the emergence of climate refugia throughout southern (i.e. poleward) regions. Results from projections using the MCA method were consistent with past analyses of the redistribution of suitable habitat for coastal-pelagic fishes off eastern Australia under climate change. By demonstrating the value of MCA for rapidly assessing the vulnerability of marine species to climate change, we highlight the opportunity to develop user-friendly software infrastructures integrated with marine climate projection data to support the interdisciplinary application of this method.

Suggested Citation

  • Curtis Champion & James R. Lawson & Joanna Pardoe & Derrick O. Cruz & Ashley M. Fowler & Fabrice Jaine & Hayden T. Schilling & Melinda A. Coleman, 2023. "Multi-criteria analysis for rapid vulnerability assessment of marine species to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(8), pages 1-20, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:8:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03577-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03577-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-023-03577-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-023-03577-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elvira S. Poloczanska & Christopher J. Brown & William J. Sydeman & Wolfgang Kiessling & David S. Schoeman & Pippa J. Moore & Keith Brander & John F. Bruno & Lauren B. Buckley & Michael T. Burrows & C, 2013. "Global imprint of climate change on marine life," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(10), pages 919-925, October.
    2. Bakhtiar Feizizadeh & Stefan Kienberger, 2017. "Spatially explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for multicriteria-based vulnerability assessment," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(11), pages 2013-2035, November.
    3. Sébastien Bigaret & Richard E. Hodgett & Patrick Meyer & Tatiana Mironova & Alexandru-Liviu Olteanu, 2017. "Supporting the multi-criteria decision aiding process: R and the MCDA package," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 5(1), pages 169-194, November.
    4. Stephanie A. Henson & Claudie Beaulieu & Tatiana Ilyina & Jasmin G. John & Matthew Long & Roland Séférian & Jerry Tjiputra & Jorge L. Sarmiento, 2017. "Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, April.
    5. James A Smith & Mercedes Pozo Buil & Jerome Fiechter & Desiree Tommasi & Michael G Jacox, 2022. "Projected novelty in the climate envelope of the California Current at multiple spatial-temporal scales," PLOS Climate, Public Library of Science, vol. 1(4), pages 1-19, April.
    6. Melo-Merino, Sara M. & Reyes-Bonilla, Héctor & Lira-Noriega, Andrés, 2020. "Ecological niche models and species distribution models in marine environments: A literature review and spatial analysis of evidence," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 415(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marianna V. P. Simões & Hanieh Saeedi & Marlon E. Cobos & Angelika Brandt, 2021. "Environmental matching reveals non-uniform range-shift patterns in benthic marine Crustacea," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-20, October.
    2. Huo, Xiaolin & Jiang, Dayan & Qiu, Zhigang & Yang, Sijie, 2022. "The impacts of dual carbon goals on asset prices in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Andrew J Allyn & Michael A Alexander & Bradley S Franklin & Felix Massiot-Granier & Andrew J Pershing & James D Scott & Katherine E Mills, 2020. "Comparing and synthesizing quantitative distribution models and qualitative vulnerability assessments to project marine species distributions under climate change," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(4), pages 1-28, April.
    4. Fabiana Gatto & Sara Daniotti & Ilaria Re, 2021. "Driving Green Investments by Measuring Innovation Impacts. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Regional Bioeconomy Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-27, October.
    5. Lazarus Chapungu & Luxon Nhamo & Roberto Cazzolla Gatti & Munyaradzi Chitakira, 2020. "Quantifying Changes in Plant Species Diversity in a Savanna Ecosystem Through Observed and Remotely Sensed Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-18, March.
    6. Kaiser, Brooks A. & Bakanev, Sergey & Bertelsen, Rasmus Gjedsø & Carson, Marcus & Eide, Arne & Fernandez, Linda & Halpin, Patrick & Izmalkov, Sergei & Kyhn, Line A. & Österblom, Henrik & Punt, Maarten, 2015. "Spatial issues in Arctic marine resource governance workshop summary and comment," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-5.
    7. Vincent Bian & Merrick Cai & Christopher L. Follett, 2023. "Understanding opposing predictions of Prochlorococcus in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Disha Sachan & Pankaj Kumar & Md. Saquib Saharwardi, 2022. "Contemporary climate change velocity for near-surface temperatures over India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-19, August.
    9. Jake F. Weltzin & Julio L. Betancourt & Benjamin I. Cook & Theresa M. Crimmins & Carolyn A. F. Enquist & Michael D. Gerst & John E. Gross & Geoffrey M. Henebry & Rebecca A. Hufft & Melissa A. Kenney &, 2020. "Seasonality of biological and physical systems as indicators of climatic variation and change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 1755-1771, December.
    10. Zhang, Peng & Li, Kefeng & Liu, Qingyuan & Zou, Qingping & Liang, Ruifeng & Qin, Leilei & Wang, Yuanming, 2024. "Thermal stratification characteristics and cooling water shortage risks for pumped storage reservoir–green data centers under extreme climates," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    11. Yasser Ebrahimian Ghajari & Ali Asghar Alesheikh & Mahdi Modiri & Reza Hosnavi & Morteza Abbasi, 2017. "Spatial Modelling of Urban Physical Vulnerability to Explosion Hazards Using GIS and Fuzzy MCDA," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-29, July.
    12. Danish Farooq & Sarbast Moslem & Rana Faisal Tufail & Omid Ghorbanzadeh & Szabolcs Duleba & Ahsen Maqsoom & Thomas Blaschke, 2020. "Analyzing the Importance of Driver Behavior Criteria Related to Road Safety for Different Driving Cultures," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-14, March.
    13. Cesc Gordó-Vilaseca & Mark John Costello & Marta Coll & Alexander Jüterbock & Henning Reiss & Fabrice Stephenson, 2024. "Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    14. Katherine A. Crichton & Jamie D. Wilson & Andy Ridgwell & Flavia Boscolo-Galazzo & Eleanor H. John & Bridget S. Wade & Paul N. Pearson, 2023. "What the geological past can tell us about the future of the ocean’s twilight zone," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    15. Christopher M Free & Tracey Mangin & Jorge García Molinos & Elena Ojea & Merrick Burden & Christopher Costello & Steven D Gaines, 2020. "Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-21, March.
    16. David A Carozza & Daniele Bianchi & Eric D Galbraith, 2017. "Formulation, General Features and Global Calibration of a Bioenergetically-Constrained Fishery Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(1), pages 1-28, January.
    17. Dechao Chen & Xinliang Xu & Zongyao Sun & Luo Liu & Zhi Qiao & Tai Huang, 2019. "Assessment of Urban Heat Risk in Mountain Environments: A Case Study of Chongqing Metropolitan Area, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, December.
    18. Bakshi, Baishali & Polasky, Stephen & Frelich, Lee E., 2024. "Using structural equation models (SEM) to link climate change, forest composition, deer, and outdoor recreation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 493(C).
    19. Muhammad Abdul Hakim Muhamad & Rozaimi Che Hasan & Najhan Md Said & Jillian Lean-Sim Ooi, 2021. "Seagrass habitat suitability model for Redang Marine Park using multibeam echosounder data: Testing different spatial resolutions and analysis window sizes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-26, September.
    20. Brown, Christian H. & Griscom, Heather P., 2022. "Differentiating between distribution and suitable habitat in ecological niche models: A red spruce (Picea rubens) case study," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 472(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:8:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03577-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.