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Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems

Author

Listed:
  • Stephanie A. Henson

    (National Oceanography Centre)

  • Claudie Beaulieu

    (Ocean and Earth Sciences, University of Southampton)

  • Tatiana Ilyina

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

  • Jasmin G. John

    (NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

  • Matthew Long

    (Climate and Global Dynamics, National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Roland Séférian

    (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France/CNRS)

  • Jerry Tjiputra

    (Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)

  • Jorge L. Sarmiento

    (Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University)

Abstract

Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephanie A. Henson & Claudie Beaulieu & Tatiana Ilyina & Jasmin G. John & Matthew Long & Roland Séférian & Jerry Tjiputra & Jorge L. Sarmiento, 2017. "Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms14682
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14682
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    Cited by:

    1. Curtis Champion & James R. Lawson & Joanna Pardoe & Derrick O. Cruz & Ashley M. Fowler & Fabrice Jaine & Hayden T. Schilling & Melinda A. Coleman, 2023. "Multi-criteria analysis for rapid vulnerability assessment of marine species to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(8), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Wang, Qiang & Song, Xiaoxin, 2021. "How UK farewell to coal – Insight from multi-regional input-output and logarithmic mean divisia index analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    3. Jingyao Peng & Yidi Sun & Junnian Song & Wei Yang, 2020. "Exploring Potential Pathways toward Energy-Related Carbon Emission Reduction in Heavy Industrial Regions of China: An Input–Output Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Anna Barbanti & Janice M. Blumenthal & Annette C. Broderick & Brendan J. Godley & Alejandro Prat-Varela & Maria Turmo & Marta Pascual & Carlos Carreras, 2022. "The architecture of assisted colonisation in sea turtles: building new populations in a biodiversity crisis," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Lazarus Chapungu & Luxon Nhamo & Roberto Cazzolla Gatti & Munyaradzi Chitakira, 2020. "Quantifying Changes in Plant Species Diversity in a Savanna Ecosystem Through Observed and Remotely Sensed Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-18, March.
    6. Yan Ma & Zhe Song & Shuangqi Li & Tangyang Jiang, 2020. "Dynamic evolution analysis of the factors driving the growth of energy-related CO2 emissions in China: An input-output analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(12), pages 1-19, December.
    7. Huo, Xiaolin & Jiang, Dayan & Qiu, Zhigang & Yang, Sijie, 2022. "The impacts of dual carbon goals on asset prices in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    8. Maddalena Floris & Vittorio Gazale & Federica Isola & Francesca Leccis & Salvatore Pinna & Cheti Pira, 2020. "The Contribution of Ecosystem Services in Developing Effective and Sustainable Management Practices in Marine Protected Areas. The Case Study of “Isola dell’Asinara”," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-32, February.

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