IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v493y2024ics0304380024001194.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Using structural equation models (SEM) to link climate change, forest composition, deer, and outdoor recreation

Author

Listed:
  • Bakshi, Baishali
  • Polasky, Stephen
  • Frelich, Lee E.

Abstract

Climate change will likely cause changes in the composition of forests worldwide, with consequent impacts on forest ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide. In northeastern Minnesota, climate change will likely cause a shift from boreal to temperate forest by the end of the century. Such a shift will affect species populations such as deer and outdoor recreation, a valuable ecosystem service with over $4 billion in annual expenditures in hunting, fishing, and wildlife viewing. In this paper, a structural equation modeling (SEM) framework is used to model four key variables, climate change, deer, forest composition, and outdoor recreation, as an interactive system with data from the Laurentian Mixed Forest (LMF) region of Minnesota. A series of SEM models of increasing complexity are used to draw out the individual and system level effects. The results show: a strong empirical relationship between forest composition and recreation; climate affects both forest composition and recreation, mainly through temperature effects; deer affects both forest composition and recreation. A systems modeling approach like SEM is needed because there are important complex interactions, such as the effect of deer on forest composition and of forest composition on deer.

Suggested Citation

  • Bakshi, Baishali & Polasky, Stephen & Frelich, Lee E., 2024. "Using structural equation models (SEM) to link climate change, forest composition, deer, and outdoor recreation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 493(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:493:y:2024:i:c:s0304380024001194
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110731
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024001194
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110731?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Agimass, Fitalew & Lundhede, Thomas & Panduro, Toke Emil & Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl, 2018. "The choice of forest site for recreation: A revealed preference analysis using spatial data," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 31(PC), pages 445-454.
    2. Peter B. Reich & Kerrie M. Sendall & Artur Stefanski & Roy L. Rich & Sarah E. Hobbie & Rebecca A. Montgomery, 2018. "Effects of climate warming on photosynthesis in boreal tree species depend on soil moisture," Nature, Nature, vol. 562(7726), pages 263-267, October.
    3. Filyushkina, Anna & Agimass, Fitalew & Lundhede, Thomas & Strange, Niels & Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl, 2017. "Preferences for variation in forest characteristics: Does diversity between stands matter?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 22-29.
    4. Melo-Merino, Sara M. & Reyes-Bonilla, Héctor & Lira-Noriega, Andrés, 2020. "Ecological niche models and species distribution models in marine environments: A literature review and spatial analysis of evidence," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 415(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chang You & Chunqian Jiang & En Liu, 2024. "Exploring Farmers’ Perspectives on Ecosystem Degradation and Restoration in Southern Hilly Regions of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lautrup, M. & Panduro, T.E. & Olsen, J.V. & Pedersen, M.F. & Jacobsen, J.B., 2023. "Is there more to trees than timber? Estimating the private amenity value of forests using a hedonic land model for combined agricultural properties," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Ciesielski, Mariusz & Stereńczak, Krzysztof, 2021. "Using Flickr data and selected environmental characteristics to analyse the temporal and spatial distribution of activities in forest areas," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Sacher, Philipp & Meyerhoff, Jürgen & Mayer, Marius, 2022. "Evidence of the association between deadwood and forest recreational site choices," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    4. Han-Shen Chen, 2020. "The Construction and Validation of a Sustainable Tourism Development Evaluation Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(19), pages 1-20, October.
    5. Yamane Nagao & Ayano Nishikori & Tomoko Imoto, 2021. "The Relationship between the Conception of Nature and Environmental Valuation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-16, November.
    6. Agimass, Fitalew & Lundhede, Thomas & Panduro, Toke Emil & Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl, 2018. "The choice of forest site for recreation: A revealed preference analysis using spatial data," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 31(PC), pages 445-454.
    7. Peeter Vassiljev & Simon Bell, 2023. "While Experiencing a Forest Trail, Variation in Landscape Is Just as Important as Content: A Virtual Reality Experiment of Cross-Country Skiing in Estonia," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-19, February.
    8. Weller, Priska & Elsasser, Peter, 2018. "Preferences for forest structural attributes in Germany – Evidence from a choice experiment," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 1-9.
    9. Wang, Chunyu & Li, Sien & Wu, Mousong & Zhang, Wenxin & Guo, Zhenyu & Huang, Siyu & Yang, Danni, 2023. "Co-regulation of temperature and moisture in the irrigated agricultural ecosystem productivity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    10. Babí Almenar, Javier & Petucco, Claudio & Sonnemann, Guido & Geneletti, Davide & Elliot, Thomas & Rugani, Benedetto, 2023. "Modelling the net environmental and economic impacts of urban nature-based solutions by combining ecosystem services, system dynamics and life cycle thinking: An application to urban forests," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    11. Vincent Bian & Merrick Cai & Christopher L. Follett, 2023. "Understanding opposing predictions of Prochlorococcus in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    12. Valle, Mireia & Ramírez-Romero, Eduardo & Ibaibarriaga, Leire & Citores, Leire & Fernandes-Salvador, Jose A. & Chust, Guillem, 2024. "Pan-Atlantic 3D distribution model incorporating water column for commercial fish," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 490(C).
    13. Rodrigues, Lucas dos Santos & Daudt, Nicholas Winterle & Cardoso, Luis Gustavo & Kinas, Paul Gerhard & Conesa, David & Pennino, Maria Grazia, 2023. "Species distribution modelling in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean: A systematic review and trends," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    14. Xinli Chen & Peter B. Reich & Anthony R. Taylor & Zhengfeng An & Scott X. Chang, 2024. "Resource availability enhances positive tree functional diversity effects on carbon and nitrogen accrual in natural forests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    15. Mirindi Eric Dusenge & Jeffrey M. Warren & Peter B. Reich & Eric J. Ward & Bridget K. Murphy & Artur Stefanski & Raimundo Bermudez & Marisol Cruz & David A. McLennan & Anthony W. King & Rebecca A. Mon, 2023. "Boreal conifers maintain carbon uptake with warming despite failure to track optimal temperatures," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    16. Varos Petrosyan & Fedor Osipov & Vladimir Bobrov & Natalia Dergunova & Andrey Omelchenko & Alexander Varshavskiy & Felix Danielyan & Marine Arakelyan, 2020. "Species Distribution Models and Niche Partitioning among Unisexual Darevskia dahli and Its Parental Bisexual ( D. portschinskii , D. mixta ) Rock Lizards in the Caucasus," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-21, August.
    17. Curtis Champion & James R. Lawson & Joanna Pardoe & Derrick O. Cruz & Ashley M. Fowler & Fabrice Jaine & Hayden T. Schilling & Melinda A. Coleman, 2023. "Multi-criteria analysis for rapid vulnerability assessment of marine species to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(8), pages 1-20, August.
    18. Weiyi Yu & Hong Hu & Bindong Sun, 2021. "Elderly Suitability of Park Recreational Space Layout Based on Visual Landscape Evaluation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, June.
    19. Hasan, Md. Mahedi & Islam, Tamanna & Ratan, Zubair Ahmed & Shaikh, M. Nasiruzzaman & Karim, Mohammad Rezaul & Rahman, Mohammad Mominur & Alharbi, Hamad F. & Uddin, Jamal & Aziz, Md. Abdul & Ahammad, A, 2021. "Ni and Co oxide water oxidation electrocatalysts: Effect of thermal treatment on catalytic activity and surface morphology," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    20. Marianna V. P. Simões & Hanieh Saeedi & Marlon E. Cobos & Angelika Brandt, 2021. "Environmental matching reveals non-uniform range-shift patterns in benthic marine Crustacea," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-20, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:493:y:2024:i:c:s0304380024001194. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.