IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v173y2022i3d10.1007_s10584-022-03418-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Contemporary climate change velocity for near-surface temperatures over India

Author

Listed:
  • Disha Sachan

    (Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Bhopal)

  • Pankaj Kumar

    (Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Bhopal)

  • Md. Saquib Saharwardi

    (Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Bhopal)

Abstract

Velocity of climate change (VoCC), also known as climate velocity, has been widely used as a climate change metric to inform the past and projected impacts of climate change on biodiversity globally. It is a generalized climate-landscape metric that does not involve any biological assumptions and is beneficial for regions with a lack of extensive species presence/absence data. In the current study, the contemporary (1951–2018) climate velocity for India at the annual and seasonal timescales has been assessed using observational and reanalysis datasets for mean near-surface temperature. The associated coverage uncertainty and influence of the resolutions of the datasets have been identified and an attempt has been made to address them. The central, north-western, and southern peninsular regions, along with some parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains, were identified as having experienced the highest annual climate velocities, in the range of 3–8 km/year in the last five decades. The velocities in the post-monsoon (October and November) were found to be the highest (> 4 km/year) as compared to the other seasons owing to the higher temporal, lower spatial gradients and regional dynamics. Finer resolution dataset presents a more realistic estimate of climate velocities owing to better representation of local topographical features and associated microclimate.

Suggested Citation

  • Disha Sachan & Pankaj Kumar & Md. Saquib Saharwardi, 2022. "Contemporary climate change velocity for near-surface temperatures over India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-19, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:173:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03418-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03418-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-022-03418-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-022-03418-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlos J.L. Balsas, 2019. "Progress and 'Acts of God' in the age of climate change virility," International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 18(2), pages 107-125.
    2. Michela Pacifici & Wendy B. Foden & Piero Visconti & James E. M. Watson & Stuart H.M. Butchart & Kit M. Kovacs & Brett R. Scheffers & David G. Hole & Tara G. Martin & H. Resit Akçakaya & Richard T. Co, 2015. "Assessing species vulnerability to climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(3), pages 215-224, March.
    3. Norman Myers & Russell A. Mittermeier & Cristina G. Mittermeier & Gustavo A. B. da Fonseca & Jennifer Kent, 2000. "Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities," Nature, Nature, vol. 403(6772), pages 853-858, February.
    4. R. Iestyn Woolway & Stephen C. Maberly, 2020. "Climate velocity in inland standing waters," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(12), pages 1124-1129, December.
    5. Alejandro Ordonez & John Williams, 2013. "Projected climate reshuffling based on multivariate climate-availability, climate-analog, and climate-velocity analyses: implications for community disaggregation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 659-675, August.
    6. Terry L. Root & Jeff T. Price & Kimberly R. Hall & Stephen H. Schneider & Cynthia Rosenzweig & J. Alan Pounds, 2003. "Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 57-60, January.
    7. Il-Ju Moon & Sung-Hun Kim & Johnny C. L. Chan, 2019. "Climate change and tropical cyclone trend," Nature, Nature, vol. 570(7759), pages 3-5, June.
    8. Isaac Brito-Morales & David S. Schoeman & Jorge García Molinos & Michael T. Burrows & Carissa J. Klein & Nur Arafeh-Dalmau & Kristin Kaschner & Cristina Garilao & Kathleen Kesner-Reyes & Anthony J. Ri, 2020. "Climate velocity reveals increasing exposure of deep-ocean biodiversity to future warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(6), pages 576-581, June.
    9. Samuel Hoffmann & Severin D. H. Irl & Carl Beierkuhnlein, 2019. "Predicted climate shifts within terrestrial protected areas worldwide," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Camille Parmesan & Gary Yohe, 2003. "A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 37-42, January.
    11. Elvira S. Poloczanska & Christopher J. Brown & William J. Sydeman & Wolfgang Kiessling & David S. Schoeman & Pippa J. Moore & Keith Brander & John F. Bruno & Lauren B. Buckley & Michael T. Burrows & C, 2013. "Global imprint of climate change on marine life," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(10), pages 919-925, October.
    12. Scott R. Loarie & Philip B. Duffy & Healy Hamilton & Gregory P. Asner & Christopher B. Field & David D. Ackerly, 2009. "The velocity of climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 462(7276), pages 1052-1055, December.
    13. Vitor H. F. Gomes & Ima C. G. Vieira & Rafael P. Salomão & Hans ter Steege, 2019. "Amazonian tree species threatened by deforestation and climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(7), pages 547-553, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daniel M. Hueholt & Elizabeth A. Barnes & James W. Hurrell & Ariel L. Morrison, 2024. "Speed of environmental change frames relative ecological risk in climate change and climate intervention scenarios," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. R. Iestyn Woolway, 2023. "The pace of shifting seasons in lakes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Katherine Dagon & Daniel P. Schrag, 2019. "Quantifying the effects of solar geoengineering on vegetation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 235-251, March.
    3. Andreas Schwarz Meyer & Alex L. Pigot & Cory Merow & Kristin Kaschner & Cristina Garilao & Kathleen Kesner-Reyes & Christopher H. Trisos, 2024. "Temporal dynamics of climate change exposure and opportunities for global marine biodiversity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Karyn Tabor & Jennifer Hewson & Hsin Tien & Mariano González-Roglich & David Hole & John W. Williams, 2018. "Tropical Protected Areas Under Increasing Threats from Climate Change and Deforestation," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-14, July.
    5. Richard Tol, 2011. "Regulating knowledge monopolies: the case of the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 827-839, October.
    6. Fabina, Nicholas S. & Abbott, Karen C. & Gilman, R.Tucker, 2010. "Sensitivity of plant–pollinator–herbivore communities to changes in phenology," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(3), pages 453-458.
    7. Brandt, Laura A. & Benscoter, Allison M. & Harvey, Rebecca & Speroterra, Carolina & Bucklin, David & Romañach, Stephanie S. & Watling, James I. & Mazzotti, Frank J., 2017. "Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 345(C), pages 10-20.
    8. Annie Paradis & Joe Elkinton & Katharine Hayhoe & John Buonaccorsi, 2008. "Role of winter temperature and climate change on the survival and future range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in eastern North America," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(5), pages 541-554, June.
    9. Andrew J Allyn & Michael A Alexander & Bradley S Franklin & Felix Massiot-Granier & Andrew J Pershing & James D Scott & Katherine E Mills, 2020. "Comparing and synthesizing quantitative distribution models and qualitative vulnerability assessments to project marine species distributions under climate change," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(4), pages 1-28, April.
    10. Yingjie Niu & Zhentao Zou, 2024. "Robust Abatement Policy with Uncertainty About Environmental Disasters," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(4), pages 933-965, April.
    11. Singer, Alexander & Johst, Karin & Banitz, Thomas & Fowler, Mike S. & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Gutiérrez, Alvaro G. & Hartig, Florian & Krug, Rainer M. & Liess, Matthias & Matlack, Glenn & Meyer, Katrin M, 2016. "Community dynamics under environmental change: How can next generation mechanistic models improve projections of species distributions?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 326(C), pages 63-74.
    12. Ferenc L. Toth & Eva Hizsnyik, 2005. "Managing The Inconceivable: Participatory Assessments Of Impacts And Responses To Extreme Climate Change," Working Papers FNU-74, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2005.
    13. Víctor Rincón & Javier Velázquez & Derya Gülçin & Aida López-Sánchez & Carlos Jiménez & Ali Uğur Özcan & Juan Carlos López-Almansa & Tomás Santamaría & Daniel Sánchez-Mata & Kerim Çiçek, 2023. "Mapping Priority Areas for Connectivity of Yellow-Winged Darter ( Sympetrum flaveolum , Linnaeus 1758) under Climate Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-39, January.
    14. Lucie Kuczynski & Mathieu Chevalier & Pascal Laffaille & Marion Legrand & Gaël Grenouillet, 2017. "Indirect effect of temperature on fish population abundances through phenological changes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, April.
    15. Marco Archetti & Andrew D Richardson & John O'Keefe & Nicolas Delpierre, 2013. "Predicting Climate Change Impacts on the Amount and Duration of Autumn Colors in a New England Forest," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(3), pages 1-8, March.
    16. Zhang, Pengyi & Liang, Yu & Liu, Bo & Ma, Tianxiao & Wu, Mia M., 2023. "A coupled modelling framework for predicting tree species’ altitudinal migration velocity in montane forest," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 484(C).
    17. Miaogen Shen & Yanhong Tang & Jin Chen & Wei Yang, 2012. "Specification of thermal growing season in temperate China from 1960 to 2009," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(3), pages 783-798, October.
    18. Dissanayake, Sahan T.M. & Önal, Hayri & Westervelt, James D. & Balbach, Harold E., 2012. "Incorporating species relocation in reserve design models: An example from Ft. Benning GA," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 65-75.
    19. Jing Zhen & Xinyuan Wang & Qingkai Meng & Jingwei Song & Ying Liao & Bo Xiang & Huadong Guo & Chuansheng Liu & Ruixia Yang & Lei Luo, 2018. "Fine-Scale Evaluation of Giant Panda Habitats and Countermeasures against the Future Impacts of Climate Change and Human Disturbance (2015–2050): A Case Study in Ya’an, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-19, April.
    20. Vikram S. Negi & Deep C. Tiwari & Laxman Singh & Shinny Thakur & Indra D. Bhatt, 2022. "Review and synthesis of climate change studies in the Himalayan region," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(9), pages 10471-10502, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:173:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03418-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.