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Projected change of East-Asian winter precipitation related to strong El Niño under the future emission scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Yu Huang

    (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
    Civil Aviation Flight University of China
    China University of Geosciences)

  • Hong-Li Ren

    (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
    China University of Geosciences)

  • Jong-Seong Kug

    (Pohang University of Science and Technology)

  • Run Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences)

  • Jingxin Li

    (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences)

Abstract

It has been demonstrated that the increased CO2 concentration would influence El Niño and its connected precipitation anomaly over East Asia (EA). Based on the model simulations from CMIP5 and CMIP6, this study investigates projected change of the boreal winter precipitation anomaly in EA during strong Eastern-Pacific type El Niño (EP-El Niño) responding to different emission scenarios and further examines the possible mechanisms. Features of the EA precipitation anomaly associated with EP-El Niño can be reasonably captured by most of the CMIP5 models, but not substantially improved by the CMIP6 models. As emissions increase, the positive precipitation anomalies over the northern EA (NEA) during strong EP-El Niños tend to be more intense, while the precipitation anomalies decrease over southern EA (SEA). Such a change pattern is generally consistent between CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, which can be intimately related to the changes of circulation and moisture transport. That is, the changed cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly pattern over NEA (SEA) is favorable (unfavorable) for the formation of precipitation pattern with the associated enhanced (weakened) moisture supply anomaly. Further analysis shows that the strong EP-El Niño itself acts to increase precipitation anomaly over most of NEA compared with historical simulations, while its induced combination mode contributes to the relatively large inconsistency over SEA between CMIP5 and CMIP6.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu Huang & Hong-Li Ren & Jong-Seong Kug & Run Wang & Jingxin Li, 2023. "Projected change of East-Asian winter precipitation related to strong El Niño under the future emission scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(7), pages 1-21, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:7:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03551-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03551-y
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    3. Wenju Cai & Guojian Wang & Boris Dewitte & Lixin Wu & Agus Santoso & Ken Takahashi & Yun Yang & Aude Carréric & Michael J. McPhaden, 2018. "Increased variability of eastern Pacific El Niño under greenhouse warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 564(7735), pages 201-206, December.
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