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Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models

Author

Listed:
  • Xianan Jiang

    (University of California, Los Angeles
    California Institute of Technology)

  • Hui Su

    (University of California, Los Angeles
    Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
    University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Jonathan H. Jiang

    (California Institute of Technology)

  • J. David Neelin

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Longtao Wu

    (California Institute of Technology)

  • Yoko Tsushima

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Gregory Elsaesser

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

A large spread in model estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), defined as the global mean near-surface air-temperature increase following a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration, leaves us greatly disadvantaged in guiding policy-making for climate change adaptation and mitigation. In this study, we show that the projected ECS in the latest generation of climate models is highly related to seasonal variations of extratropical low-cloud fraction (LCF) in historical simulations. Marked reduction of extratropical LCF from winter to summer is found in models with ECS > 4.75 K, in accordance with the significant reduction of extratropical LCF under a warming climate in these models. In contrast, a pronounced seasonal cycle of extratropical LCF, as supported by satellite observations, is largely absent in models with ECS

Suggested Citation

  • Xianan Jiang & Hui Su & Jonathan H. Jiang & J. David Neelin & Longtao Wu & Yoko Tsushima & Gregory Elsaesser, 2023. "Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-41360-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41360-0
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    1. Veronika Eyring & Peter M. Cox & Gregory M. Flato & Peter J. Gleckler & Gab Abramowitz & Peter Caldwell & William D. Collins & Bettina K. Gier & Alex D. Hall & Forrest M. Hoffman & George C. Hurtt & A, 2019. "Taking climate model evaluation to the next level," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(2), pages 102-110, February.
    2. Masahiro Watanabe & Youichi Kamae & Hideo Shiogama & Anthony M. DeAngelis & Kentaroh Suzuki, 2018. "Low clouds link equilibrium climate sensitivity to hydrological sensitivity," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(10), pages 901-906, October.
    3. Timothy A. Myers & Ryan C. Scott & Mark D. Zelinka & Stephen A. Klein & Joel R. Norris & Peter M. Caldwell, 2021. "Observational constraints on low cloud feedback reduce uncertainty of climate sensitivity," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(6), pages 501-507, June.
    4. Grégory V. Cesana & Anthony D. Del Genio, 2021. "Observational constraint on cloud feedbacks suggests moderate climate sensitivity," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(3), pages 213-218, March.
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