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Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

Author

Listed:
  • Veronika Eyring

    (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre
    University of Bremen, Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP))

  • Peter M. Cox

    (University of Exeter)

  • Gregory M. Flato

    (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • Peter J. Gleckler

    (Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

  • Gab Abramowitz

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Peter Caldwell

    (Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

  • William D. Collins

    (Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
    University of California)

  • Bettina K. Gier

    (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre
    University of Bremen, Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP))

  • Alex D. Hall

    (University of California)

  • Forrest M. Hoffman

    (Computational Earth Sciences Group and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
    University of Tennessee)

  • George C. Hurtt

    (University of Maryland)

  • Alexandra Jahn

    (University of Colorado)

  • Chris D. Jones

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Stephen A. Klein

    (Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

  • John P. Krasting

    (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA)

  • Lester Kwiatkowski

    (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD), IPSL)

  • Ruth Lorenz

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich)

  • Eric Maloney

    (University of Colorado)

  • Gerald A. Meehl

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR))

  • Angeline G. Pendergrass

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR))

  • Robert Pincus

    (University of Colorado)

  • Alex C. Ruane

    (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

  • Joellen L. Russell

    (University of Arizona)

  • Benjamin M. Sanderson

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR))

  • Benjamin D. Santer

    (Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

  • Steven C. Sherwood

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Isla R. Simpson

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR))

  • Ronald J. Stouffer

    (University of Arizona)

  • Mark S. Williamson

    (University of Exeter)

Abstract

Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Veronika Eyring & Peter M. Cox & Gregory M. Flato & Peter J. Gleckler & Gab Abramowitz & Peter Caldwell & William D. Collins & Bettina K. Gier & Alex D. Hall & Forrest M. Hoffman & George C. Hurtt & A, 2019. "Taking climate model evaluation to the next level," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(2), pages 102-110, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0355-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y
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    2. Sabine Undorf & Karoliina Pulkkinen & Per Wikman-Svahn & Frida A.-M. Bender, 2022. "How do value-judgements enter model-based assessments of climate sensitivity?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-26, October.
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    6. Jinling Piao & Wen Chen & Shangfeng Chen & Hainan Gong & Lin Wang, 2021. "Mean states and future projections of precipitation over the monsoon transitional zone in China in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-24, December.
    7. Zhang, Boling & Wang, Qian & Wang, Sixia & Tong, Ruipeng, 2023. "Coal power demand and paths to peak carbon emissions in China: A provincial scenario analysis oriented by CO2-related health co-benefits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    8. Yiannis Moustakis & Tobias Nützel & Hao-Wei Wey & Wenkai Bao & Julia Pongratz, 2024. "Temperature overshoot responses to ambitious forestation in an Earth System Model," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, December.
    9. Xianan Jiang & Hui Su & Jonathan H. Jiang & J. David Neelin & Longtao Wu & Yoko Tsushima & Gregory Elsaesser, 2023. "Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    10. Ranghui Wang & Qing Peng & Weidong Zhang & Wenfei Zhao & Chunwei Liu & Limin Zhou, 2022. "Ecohydrological Service Characteristics of Qilian Mountain Ecosystem in the Next 30 Years Based on Scenario Simulation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-14, February.
    11. Yinglian Qi & Xiaoyan Pu & Yaxiong Li & Dingai Li & Mingrui Huang & Xuan Zheng & Jiaxin Guo & Zhi Chen, 2022. "Prediction of Suitable Distribution Area of Plateau pika ( Ochotona curzoniae ) in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-23, September.
    12. Amit Kumar & Abhilash Singh & Kumar Gaurav, 2023. "Assessing the synergic effect of land use and climate change on the upper Betwa River catchment in Central India under present, past, and future climate scenarios," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(6), pages 5163-5184, June.
    13. Yu Huang & Hong-Li Ren & Jong-Seong Kug & Run Wang & Jingxin Li, 2023. "Projected change of East-Asian winter precipitation related to strong El Niño under the future emission scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(7), pages 1-21, July.
    14. Yuanfang Chai & Yao Yue & Louise J. Slater & Jiabo Yin & Alistair G. L. Borthwick & Tiexi Chen & Guojie Wang, 2022. "Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    15. Manoj Lamichhane & Sajal Phuyal & Rajnish Mahato & Anuska Shrestha & Usam Pudasaini & Sudeshma Dikshen Lama & Abin Raj Chapagain & Sushant Mehan & Dhurba Neupane, 2024. "Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow and Baseflow in the Karnali River Basin, Nepal: A CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble Approach Using SWAT and Web-Based Hydrograph Analysis Tool," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-40, April.
    16. Xiangzhong Luo & Haoran Zhou & Tin W. Satriawan & Jiaqi Tian & Ruiying Zhao & Trevor F. Keenan & Daniel M. Griffith & Stephen Sitch & Nicholas G. Smith & Christopher J. Still, 2024. "Mapping the global distribution of C4 vegetation using observations and optimality theory," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.

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